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Opta Model Recasts 2025/26 Premier League Landscape After Weekend Upsets

Opta projections show Arsenal 97.77% to win; Man City 2.23%. Key European and relegation odds. 2025.

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A weekend of shocks and dropped points has shifted the Opta supercomputer’s view of the 2025/26 Premier League season. With the top two away for the Carabao Cup final, teams below have been jockeying for position in the race for Champions League places.

Manchester United were held to a 2–2 draw with Bournemouth in controversial circumstances. Liverpool fell 2–1 to Brighton & Hove Albion. Chelsea suffered a 3–0 defeat to Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Opta’s projection still favours Arsenal for the title. The model lists Arsenal on 70 current points with an expected points total of 84.80 and a title chance of 97.77%. Manchester City sit on 61 points with an expected 74.47 and a 2.23% title chance. The statisticians are not looking past Arsenal.

On Champions League qualification the supercomputer gives Manchester United (55 current points, expected 66.09) an 86.25% chance, while Aston Villa (51, expected 64.13) has a 66.68% chance. Liverpool are projected on 49 current points with an expected 60.53 and a 27.33% chance. Chelsea stand on 48 current points, expected 58.63, with a 13.39% chance. Brentford (45, expected 56.09) are at 3.64%; Everton (46, expected 54.96) 1.37%; Newcastle (42, expected 54.12) 0.73%; Brighton (43, expected 53.48) 0.53%.

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Michael Carrick’s side are still in an imposing position with seven games left to play despite the Bournemouth draw. Unai Emery’s side remain heavy favourites for the final top-four spot, having done most of the early campaign work.

Arne Slot’s side retain a route back into the Champions League thanks in part to England’s strong coefficient. Liam Rosenior’s side face a difficult run and are projected for the Europa League.

At the bottom, Opta’s relegation table places Tottenham on 30 points with a 12.67% relegation chance (expected 40.63). Nottingham Forest are on 29 with a 32.11% chance (expected 38.58). West Ham are on 29 with a 48.44% chance (expected 37.73). Burnley (20, expected 26.34) have a 99.90% chance and Wolves (17, expected 24.94) a 99.94% chance. Sunday’s Tottenham v Nottingham Forest meeting is highlighted as pivotal for both clubs.

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Copley confirms ACL setback after Arsenal preseason appearance

Copley’s preseason debut ended early, and Arsenal now face another defensive injury concern.

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Arsenal midfielder Louie Copley has revealed that his preseason outing ended with a serious knee injury after the club’s 3-1 defeat to Real Betis.

Copley was introduced at half time and briefly filled in at right back, but his first appearance of the summer lasted only 11 minutes before he was forced off. The injury has since been diagnosed as an ACL problem.

On social media, Copley wrote: “Words can’t describe how I’m feeling right now, to making my preseason debut for the team I’ve grown up supporting to finding out I’ve ruptured my ACL,” he reflected on social media.

He added: “The road ahead won’t be easy but I’ll give everything to come back stronger and better.”

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The timing leaves Copley facing a long recovery, with the possibility that he could return later in the coming season if rehabilitation goes well. For now, though, expectations will be kept in check as he begins a difficult spell on the sidelines.

His setback also removes a player who had been trying to make a case at right back, a position Arsenal have already had to manage carefully. Jurriën Timber has spent months out with a groin issue, while Ben White has also dealt with significant fitness problems in the past. White has been starting this summer, with Copley being given the chance to provide cover before the knee injury struck.

Arsenal’s defensive concerns are not limited to the right side. William Saliba is set for a lengthy period out because of a back problem, and that has already pushed Cristhian Mosquera, another right-back option, into central defence alongside Gabriel.

For Copley, the injury is a harsh interruption to a preseason that had offered him a chance to step forward.

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Guimarães outlines Arsenal appeal after move from Newcastle United

Guimarães says Arsenal’s midfield suits him and recalls Rice’s message before joining.

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Bruno Guimarães has set out what he expects to add to Arsenal after completing his move from Newcastle United, describing himself as the club’s “warrior” in midfield.

The Brazilian made clear that the prospect of linking up with Declan Rice was part of the attraction. Rice had already reached out before the transfer was finalised, and Guimarães said the message made an impression.

“Rice sent me a message: ‘Come here and please no more fights, now we’re friends!’ I was happy he messaged me,” Guimarães told Arsenal.com . “In my point of view, [the Arsenal midfield] is one of the best in Europe. Everyone is an amazing player.

“Every time when I play against [Arsenal] it was very tough. They keep the ball, they defend like one. I think that combination is the way I like to play as well, and of course, joining the winners of the league is always a big opportunity.”

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He also explained the qualities he expects to bring to the side, stressing energy, control and commitment.

“I can pass the ball, run a lot and play like a warrior, I’ll never give up. I will try to help the team, [I’m] good with the ball, composed, very calm, and sometimes I can score some goals.”

Guimarães will wear the No. 39 shirt at Arsenal, a number tied closely to his family. He revealed in 2023 that 39 was the taxi number used by his father in Rio de Janeiro, and that he has kept it for that reason throughout his career.

He said: “It means everything to me,” Guimarães explained. “I have the tattoo of the 39 as well. My father was a taxi driver in Brazil for more than 20 years. The taxi, of course, gave me everything for my family, the place we live, the food, my clothes, everything.

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“So when I got the chance to sign to a top club in Brazil, I asked my father which number I should take and he said 39. I was upset a little bit because I wanted to take the 97. He said: ‘No, no, take the 39. The 39 gave you everything.’”

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Hopkinson says Newcastle accepted a record offer in Guimarães talks

Hopkinson explains Newcastle’s stance as Arsenal edge closer to a deal for Bruno Guimarães.

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Newcastle United chief executive David Hopkinson has acknowledged that the club ended up satisfied with the scale of the agreement as Bruno Guimarães moved closer to Arsenal.

Hopkinson made clear that Newcastle never set out to part with their captain. “We didn’t want to sell Bruno,” Hopkinson confessed. “It wasn’t in the plan to sell Bruno. None of us, or ownership, wanted to sell Bruno.

“He’s our captain, he was very, very important to us and the debate over his price … it’s a world-record fee for a player of his age.

“What we had to weigh up was, very respectfully from Bruno with his behavior towards us, very emotionally as well, effectively told us he wanted to leave and move on.

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“That doesn’t mean he can go but it certainly plays a part in what our thinking is when we hit a certain range of number. But there’s no point in saying it was part of our strategy and was in our thinking this summer—it wasn’t.

“But we have got to be flexible and react to things that happen. It might have been in our plan to sign one player but we didn’t get him so we move on to another. We can only be honest about that.”

The negotiation was said to have developed after a period of discussions through intermediaries, alongside uncertainty over his value. Early reports suggested Arsenal believed he could be signed for less than $81 million (£60 million), while Newcastle set an asking price of $135 million (£100 million). The eventual deal landed between those figures.

“It was not the fee that I think Arsenal had hoped to pay and of course we would have liked an even higher number,” Hopkinson explained.

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“But I think you’re dealing with sophisticated actors on both sides and that’s what negotiation looks like.

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