Man City
Maguire: City Could Face 40–60-Point Deduction If FFP Breaches Are Proven
Maguire: a 40-60 point deduction is plausible if serious FFP breaches are proven; relegation option.
Kieran Maguire has set out a stark possibility for Manchester City as the Premier League’s lengthy probe edges closer to a conclusion. He told The Overlap that, if the most serious allegations are upheld, the club could face a deduction in the region of 40 to 60 points rather than relegation.
The independent investigation concluded in December 2024, and 14 months of silence have followed while figures including Pep Guardiola have grown increasingly weary when pressed on timings. The Premier League alleges City artificially inflated revenues to bypass financial fair play rules across nine seasons (2009–18).
Maguire suggested the most likely immediate finding could relate to non-cooperation. He believes it is “fairly likely” City will be found guilty of “non-cooperation,” a charge that makes up a large portion of the case, and warned that “they are likely to get a significant fine because that is what we saw happen with UEFA and the deductions there.”
The club point to UEFA’s earlier proceedings. UEFA imposed a two-year European ban in February 2020, later overturned by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which cleared City of “disguising equity funds as sponsorship contribution” while also stating many alleged breaches “were either not established or time-barred.” UEFA applies a five-year limitation that the Premier League does not.
Among players, Erling Haaland has already committed his long-term future after private discussions with the club. He said: “I spoke with the bosses, and in the end, I believe them. It’s such a tricky situation for me to even sit there and speak about, because I wasn’t really involved in it. So I think the club knows what they’re doing. They will sort it out.”
Maguire was clear on sanctions. “The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL,” he said. “Therefore, it has to be a points deduction.” He referenced precedent — Everton and Nottingham Forest received six and four-point penalties over three years — and added: “The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant. I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic.”
He also warned that, if corporate fraud were proven, there could be “a complete restructure of the club.” Maguire added: “I think we’re probably into the final reaches of getting a decision. I think part of the challenge has been that because there are three very senior people who are on the court, who are making that final judgment. Getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult. So that’s delayed the case. It should be resolved in the next few months.”
Man City
United and City Both Monitor Felix Nmecha Amid Midfield Planning
United and City are linked to Felix Nmecha as both clubs weigh midfield rebuilding and renewal ahead
Manchester United and Manchester City have both been linked to Borussia Dortmund midfielder Felix Nmecha as each evaluates midfield options ahead of a period of change.
Nmecha, 25, is under contract in Germany until 2028, but his long-term future at Dortmund is described as uncertain. Clubs across Europe have taken note of a player who has enjoyed a career resurgence in recent seasons.
An English-educated talent, Nmecha joined City’s academy in 2007 and spent 14 years on the books at the Etihad. He made three senior appearances for Manchester City and provided an assist in five minutes of Champions League action. He left City on a free transfer to join Wolfsburg in 2021 and moved to Dortmund two years later.
At City he was primarily an attacking player, operating behind the striker and on the left wing. In Germany he has been converted into a more all-action midfielder, often deployed deeper in a midfield pivot or as a box-to-box presence. That tactical change produced some of the best performances of his career. Standing at 6’3, Nmecha combines physicality with a broad on-ball skillset, and his earlier attacking training remains evident alongside developed defensive discipline. Former Dortmund boss Nuri Şahin described the German international as a “dream” because of his versatility.
United view a versatile midfielder as a priority as they prepare to bid farewell to Casemiro and contemplate broader rebuild plans that could see Manuel Ugarte moved on and leave Kobbie Mainoo as the only natural midfielder in the squad. The profile of a player like Nmecha would give the next manager, whether Michael Carrick or somebody else, tactical options during reconstruction.
City are not in the same immediate need but Pep Guardiola accepts the need to rejuvenate a squad that has fallen short in the title race. With doubts over the futures of Mateo Kovačić, Bernardo Silva and Rodri, they may seek new faces. Some inside City will be familiar with Nmecha and may be regretting the decision not to extend his contract five years ago.
Both clubs are also linked to other targets. Nottingham Forest’s Elliot Anderson sits high on both shortlists with a reported £100 million ($133.5 million) price tag. Crystal Palace’s Adam Wharton and Brighton & Hove Albion’s Carlos Baleba are also under consideration.
Arsenal
Opta Supercomputer: Arsenal Favoured After Manchester City’s Midweek Slip
Opta model raises Arsenal’s title probability to 92.84% after Man City’s midweek stumble. In detail.
Arsenal’s position at the top of the 2025–26 Premier League table strengthened after Manchester City dropped points in midweek Premier League action. Opta’s supercomputer now gives Mikel Arteta’s side a 92.84% chance of winning the title, projecting Arsenal to finish on 83.99 points from their current 67.
Manchester City sit seven points behind Arsenal on 60 points and are forecast to end the season with 76.02 points, leaving them with a 7.16% title probability. Opta had already considered Arsenal overwhelming favourites before the midweek matches; the latest result combinations have widened the gap and increased Arsenal’s title odds by 10 percentage points from a previous 82.71% to 92.84%. City’s chances fell from 17.25% to 7.16% following the setback.
The Opta model also outlines the fight for Champions League qualification. Aston Villa are predicted to finish third on 65.55 points with a 63.31% chance of qualifying. Manchester United sit on 51 points and are forecast to take fourth with 64.65 predicted points and a 56.69% chance. Liverpool are expected to finish fifth with 62.98 predicted points and a 40.61% probability, while Chelsea are projected to end the campaign on 62.20 points with a 34.70% chance. Brentford are the only other side given a measurable outside chance of qualification at 4.02%.
At the other end of the table, Opta’s forecast narrows the relegation battleground. Leeds United are expected to finish on 44.13 points with a 7.89% relegation chance, while Tottenham are projected to reach 42.21 points and face a 7.64% risk. Nottingham Forest are forecast to collect 38.45 points with a 28.86% relegation probability. West Ham United are predicted to finish on 35.14 points with a 55.52% chance of relegation. Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers are almost certain to go down, with respective relegation probabilities of 99.36% and 99.93%.
Opta’s projections reflect the impact of the midweek fixtures on title, European and survival scenarios as the season progresses.
Arsenal
Arsenal and Man City: A Direct Comparison of Their Next Five Premier League Matches
Arsenal lead by seven points; both clubs face tight schedules with cup finals and key league tests..
A pivotal stretch of fixtures lies ahead for Arsenal and Man City as the title race continues to shift. Elliot Anderson, considered a target for Man City this summer, produced a decisive equalizer for Forest during their 2–2 draw with Pep Guardiola’s men, allowing Arsenal to open up a seven-point lead over their chasers, albeit they have played a game more than the Cityzens.
Standings before the run-in listed in the draft: Arsenal (67 points) and Man City (60 points).
Each club has one Premier League fixture remaining before the March international break because both sides will contest the Carabao Cup final later this month. They will also be engaged in Champions League and FA Cup commitments during the coming weeks.
The next five Premier League matches as provided:
Arsenal (67 points)
– Everton (H) – March 14
– Bournemouth (H) – April 11
– Man City (A) – April 19
– Newcastle (H) – April 25
– Fulham (H) – May 2
Man City (60 points)
– West Ham (A) – March 14
– Chelsea (A) – April 12
– Arsenal (H) – April 19
– Burnley (A) – April 26
– Everton (A) – May 2
Context from the draft highlights key angles. Arsenal travel only once to face Man City in that sequence but otherwise host several challenging opponents, with Bournemouth and Newcastle United both singled out as tests at the Emirates Stadium. Everton present an awkward March 14 fixture for Arsenal, with the Toffees said to have collected more points on the road than at their new home this season. City, by contrast, visit West Ham on March 14, a team they have beaten seven times on the spin according to the draft, while their April fixtures include a potentially intimidating trip to Chelsea and an away game at Burnley.
Both squads will need to juggle cup finals and European and domestic cup commitments alongside these league matches.
