Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

Chelsea’s home derby against Tottenham ended in frustration and disarray as the visitors secured a deserved 2-0 victory, handing Chelsea only their second home league defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in 36 years.

The contest was effectively lost in stages. Chelsea struggled to create clear openings after the restart, but the decisive blows arrived when a comical own goal from Mike Penders, making his first Premier League start, put Tottenham in front. Soon after, Cole Palmer was dismissed for two quick yellow cards, leaving Chelsea with an even steeper hill to climb. The first booking followed a petulant push on Mateus Fernandes, an action that might easily have brought a straight red, while the second came from an unnecessary challenge on Conor Gallagher.

Any lingering hope of a late rescue disappeared three minutes from time when Mathys Tel produced a superb solo finish to settle the match and leave Chelsea with their third Premier League defeat of the season.

Chelsea entered the derby having already shown how much they miss Pedro. Before Saturday, they had played only one league match without him this season, and that ended in a 3-0 defeat to Brentford. His eight goal involvements have been central to their attack, but his value goes beyond numbers. He provides the focal point for Xabi Alonso’s fluid 3-4-2-1 shape, linking with Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers.

Without him, Chelsea lacked clarity and cohesion. Alonso chose Morgan Rogers at No. 9, with Palmer and Geovany Quenda close behind, but the first half brought only four shots and 0.25 expected goals. The manager waited until the 72nd minute to turn to Estêvão, yet the overall pattern did not change. Danny Welbeck arrived too late to influence proceedings.

There are now obvious questions for Alonso, especially how to structure his attack without Pedro, whose return date is still unknown.

Chelsea will face Tottenham in Saturday’s London derby without leading scorer João Pedro in the matchday squad.

Morgan Rogers has been handed the central striking role for Chelsea, while Geovany Quenda comes into the XI for his first Premier League start on the left wing. Pedro’s absence is the major talking point, with Chelsea yet to offer a formal explanation for leaving him out.

Kieran Gill reported that the striker has picked up an injury and will need further scans. That comes after a knee issue ruled him out of the 3-0 defeat to Brentford before the international break and also kept him out of the Brazil squad during the September-October window. He did, however, return immediately afterwards.

Pedro responded with two goals against Bournemouth, before drawing a blank against Everton in his most recent appearance. He played 92 minutes in that match before being replaced by Welbeck in the closing stages. There had been no obvious sign of a problem, and Alonso did not refer to any issue in his prematch press conference.

Malo Gusto is back in the squad after illness, but Pep Chavarría remains unavailable through injury. Emiliano Martínez is also missing after undergoing surgery on a broken jaw sustained last time out, and Mike Penders comes in for the Argentine.

Summer signing Emmanuel Emegha is still not ready for selection. The former Strasbourg man was injured in preseason, though he is believed to be nearing a delayed debut. With Pedro unexpectedly absent, his return would have been a useful option for this match, but it will not come against Spurs.