The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.

Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.

Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:

– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%

Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.

The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.

Manchester City reduced the gap to Premier League leaders Arsenal to two points with a 1-0 victory over Leeds United at Elland Road. Leeds started the brighter side, pressing high and creating the early openings, including a couple of chances for Dominic Calvert-Lewin that went narrowly wide.

City grew into the game from around the half-hour mark and then took the lead on the stroke of halftime when Antoine Semenyo finished a move created by a low cross from Rayan Aït-Nouri and a pass that cut Leeds open from Rayan Cherki. The goal proved decisive: Leeds were unable to sustain the same intensity for the full 90 minutes and City managed the second half to protect their advantage.

Antoine Semenyo has now scored four Premier League goals since his January arrival and six in all competitions for City. His finish shortly before the break arrived in a game without Haaland, thought to be a decision to help him manage a knee issue.

Player ratings (out of 10):
GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma 8.0 — Largely a spectator after Leeds’ early pressure.
RB: Matheus Nunes 8.2 — One of City’s better attacking outlets.
CB: Rúben Dias 8.4 — Dominant defensively, led the match in clearances.
CB: Marc Guéhi 7.6 — Made a goal-saving challenge in the six-yard box.
LB: Rayan Aït-Nouri 8.6 — Surging run and intelligent low cross that led to the goal.
DM: Rodri 7.8 — Controlled the tempo once Leeds’ intensity eased.
RM: Rayan Cherki 7.1 — Played the pass that created Semenyo’s chance.
AM: Bernardo Silva (c) 7.1 — Frustratingly quiet given his possession.
LM: Nico O’Reilly 7.0 — Promising performance cut short by a limp.
ST: Antoine Semenyo 7.8 — Clinical with the decisive chance.
ST: Omar Marmoush 6.3 — Improved slightly after a difficult start.

Subs: Savinho (68’) 6.1, Tijjani Reijnders (70’) 6.7, Nathan Aké (88’) N/A. Unused: James Trafford, Abdukodir Khusanov, John Stones, Nico González, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku.

Key match stats: Possession 33% Leeds, 67% Man City; Expected Goals (xG) 1.47 Leeds, 1.77 Man City; Total shots 14 each; Shots on target 2 Leeds, 5 City; Big chances 2 Leeds, 4 City; Passing accuracy 74% Leeds, 90% City; Fouls committed 10 Leeds, 8 City.

Chelsea dominated the opening hour at Stamford Bridge but conceded twice after a late change in momentum to draw 2-2 with Leeds United. The Blues had a two-goal lead and had not allowed a single shot on target before the game turned in the 64th minute.

Moisés Caicedo slid in late on Jayden Bogle inside the area, gifting Leeds a penalty that Robert Nmecha dispatched with his side’s first shot on goal. Chelsea grew visibly nervous after that setback and, six minutes later, a chaotic defensive sequence left Noah Okafor with the chance to tuck home the equaliser.

Deep into stoppage time Cole Palmer had an open-net opportunity to win it but skied his shot, leaving Chelsea to rue dropped points in a match they had mostly controlled. The result could prove costly in their push to qualify for next season’s Champions League.

The performance through 60 minutes had been authoritative: long periods of possession, controlled passing and clear chances. After the concession of the penalty, the backline’s composure evaporated and Leeds grew into the game under Rosenior.

Player ratings (match day):
GK: Robert Sánchez — 6.1. His distribution was accurate, with one long ball to Pedro that resulted in a penalty. He could have done more to prevent the equaliser.
RB: Malo Gusto — 7.3. Repeatedly reached the byline and covered ground, though a few shaky defensive moments showed inconsistency.
CB: Josh Acheampong — 5.8. Dangerous forward runs in the first half but failed to clear the ball that led to the second goal and was immediately substituted.
CB: Trevoh Chalobah — 7.1. Restricted Lukas Nmecha well but was frustrated by his clearance that contributed to the equaliser.
LB: Marc Cucurella — 6.7. Offered width and dangerous crosses but was substituted at halftime.
DM: Moisés Caicedo — 6.7. Unforgivable to give away the penalty; a major factor in the collapse.
DM: Andrey Santos — 7.0. Important interceptions and the line-breaking pass that triggered the first goal.
RW: Estêvão — 7.2. Quiet night, saw little of the ball as attack favoured the left.
AM: Cole Palmer — 8.8. Central to the attack, created and scored from a penalty but missed a sitter in stoppage time.
LW: Enzo Fernández — 7.9. Key creator with accurate through passes.
ST: João Pedro — 8.0. Intelligent movement, chipped finish and involvement in the penalty incidents.

Substitutes and brief notes: Jorrel Hato 6.4, Pedro Neto 6.3, Wesley Fofana 6.7, Liam Delap 6.2. Unused: Teddy Sharman-Lowe, Benoît Badiashille, Mamadou Sarr, Marc Guiu, Alejandro Garnacho.

Key match statistics: Possession 66%–34%, xG 3.65–1.35, Total shots 19–4, Shots on target 4–2, Big chances 4–2, Passing accuracy 92%–80%, Fouls 9–13.