Cole Palmer will not miss a Premier League match after his red-card suspension was absorbed by Chelsea’s midweek Carabao Cup tie with Liverpool. The one-game ban will be served in that fixture, leaving him available for league duty despite the dismissal.

The midfielder’s night turned late in the contest after stand-in goalkeeper Mike Penders helped the visitors in front with a costly own goal in the 77th minute. Soon afterwards, Palmer picked up a second yellow card, having already been booked for running into Mateus Fernandes. On another occasion, that incident might have brought a red card immediately, but the greater problem came when he stood on Conor Gallagher’s ankle.

The scheduling and the FA handbook have combined to spare Palmer from a Premier League absence, although he will miss Chelsea’s next match, which is the trip to Anfield. That means he will not be available for the fourth round Carabao Cup tie on Wednesday night.

Chelsea’s record at Anfield remains a poor one. They have not won there in front of fans since 2018, when Eden Hazard inspired a side managed by Maurizio Sarri to a Carabao Cup third round victory. This time, however, their No. 10 will be watching from the sidelines.

Palmer addressed the fallout on social media the next morning. “Not good enough by me,” he wrote on Instagram. “Live n learn. Apologies. On to the next.”

The manager was more restrained in his assessment and chose not to publicly escalate the issue. “I need to check the action to talk with Cole, but it is one to learn for the future for sure,” he said after the match.

He added: “I think that Cole, when he is focused on the game, when he is enjoying, and today after the 1–0, it is a moment to keep calm, a moment to keep mature and for everyone.”

Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

Chelsea’s home derby against Tottenham ended in frustration and disarray as the visitors secured a deserved 2-0 victory, handing Chelsea only their second home league defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in 36 years.

The contest was effectively lost in stages. Chelsea struggled to create clear openings after the restart, but the decisive blows arrived when a comical own goal from Mike Penders, making his first Premier League start, put Tottenham in front. Soon after, Cole Palmer was dismissed for two quick yellow cards, leaving Chelsea with an even steeper hill to climb. The first booking followed a petulant push on Mateus Fernandes, an action that might easily have brought a straight red, while the second came from an unnecessary challenge on Conor Gallagher.

Any lingering hope of a late rescue disappeared three minutes from time when Mathys Tel produced a superb solo finish to settle the match and leave Chelsea with their third Premier League defeat of the season.

Chelsea entered the derby having already shown how much they miss Pedro. Before Saturday, they had played only one league match without him this season, and that ended in a 3-0 defeat to Brentford. His eight goal involvements have been central to their attack, but his value goes beyond numbers. He provides the focal point for Xabi Alonso’s fluid 3-4-2-1 shape, linking with Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers.

Without him, Chelsea lacked clarity and cohesion. Alonso chose Morgan Rogers at No. 9, with Palmer and Geovany Quenda close behind, but the first half brought only four shots and 0.25 expected goals. The manager waited until the 72nd minute to turn to Estêvão, yet the overall pattern did not change. Danny Welbeck arrived too late to influence proceedings.

There are now obvious questions for Alonso, especially how to structure his attack without Pedro, whose return date is still unknown.