Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

The Premier League returns after another midweek round of continental action involving nine English clubs, and Gameweek 8 arrives with little room for recovery. Several of the league’s biggest sides are back in action quickly, while a number of awkward fixtures could shape the standings before the weekend is over.

Friday’s opener at Portman Road looks finely balanced. Ipswich Town have collected nine points from seven matches and have taken two-thirds of that tally at home, with wins over Sunderland and Fulham lifting them to 10th. Nottingham Forest, however, arrive with their own issues, and goals have been difficult to come by for the Tricky Trees. A draw feels the likeliest outcome.

Aston Villa’s meeting with Man City is one of the standout fixtures on Saturday. Villa have won five of their last six, while City have maintained a perfect Premier League run, though their domestic record remains surrounded by uncertainty off the pitch. Even so, their form under Pep Guardiola has been efficient, and with Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden in encouraging touch, they are tipped to edge it.

Arsenal are expected to keep pace at the top with a home win over Everton. The Gunners remain defensively solid, even if their attack will be without Bukayo Saka, while Everton are likely to sit deep and counter through Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish.

Chelsea’s clash with Tottenham Hotspur closes Saturday and the home side look strong favourites. Spurs have won only once at Stamford Bridge in 25 years, while Chelsea have scored 17 goals in seven matches under Xabi Alonso. João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have all been in form.

Elsewhere, Liverpool’s meeting with Brighton has the feel of a high-scoring draw, Man Utd are predicted to share the points with Bournemouth, and Sunderland’s test against Leeds United could be decided by fatigue after their trip to Poland.

Lisandro Martínez’s latest setback has put Manchester United in another holding pattern, with the defender’s condition still uncertain after he was withdrawn at half-time in Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Leeds United at Elland Road.

The Argentina international started the game but did not come out for the second half, as United adjusted their shape after the interval. Ayden Heaven was already unavailable because of illness, and the team appeared to move to a back three when Martínez was replaced by returning fullback Noussair Mazraoui.

After the match, Michael Carrick said Martínez had “felt his thigh a little bit.” That brief assessment suggested caution rather than alarm, with no immediate indication that the issue was severe. Carrick also offered no further details, leaving the club to wait for a fuller update when he next speaks to reporters on Tuesday.

The timing matters, with United due to face Como in the Champions League on Wednesday. At this stage, it seems difficult to imagine Martínez being pushed into that match so soon after coming off against Leeds. If the problem is minor and carefully managed, he could be back in contention relatively quickly. The more realistic short-term target may be Bournemouth, when the Premier League schedule resumes on Sunday.

Martínez’s injury record since arriving from Ajax in the summer of 2022 remains a significant concern. Across his first four years at the club, he made 110 appearances in all competitions, averaging fewer than 28 a season. Transfermarkt estimates that he has spent a total of 632 days sidelined in that period.

For now, United are waiting for the next update, with the hope that this is another brief interruption rather than something more serious.