Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

The Premier League returns after another midweek round of continental action involving nine English clubs, and Gameweek 8 arrives with little room for recovery. Several of the league’s biggest sides are back in action quickly, while a number of awkward fixtures could shape the standings before the weekend is over.

Friday’s opener at Portman Road looks finely balanced. Ipswich Town have collected nine points from seven matches and have taken two-thirds of that tally at home, with wins over Sunderland and Fulham lifting them to 10th. Nottingham Forest, however, arrive with their own issues, and goals have been difficult to come by for the Tricky Trees. A draw feels the likeliest outcome.

Aston Villa’s meeting with Man City is one of the standout fixtures on Saturday. Villa have won five of their last six, while City have maintained a perfect Premier League run, though their domestic record remains surrounded by uncertainty off the pitch. Even so, their form under Pep Guardiola has been efficient, and with Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden in encouraging touch, they are tipped to edge it.

Arsenal are expected to keep pace at the top with a home win over Everton. The Gunners remain defensively solid, even if their attack will be without Bukayo Saka, while Everton are likely to sit deep and counter through Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish.

Chelsea’s clash with Tottenham Hotspur closes Saturday and the home side look strong favourites. Spurs have won only once at Stamford Bridge in 25 years, while Chelsea have scored 17 goals in seven matches under Xabi Alonso. João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have all been in form.

Elsewhere, Liverpool’s meeting with Brighton has the feel of a high-scoring draw, Man Utd are predicted to share the points with Bournemouth, and Sunderland’s test against Leeds United could be decided by fatigue after their trip to Poland.

Sir Alex Ferguson once reflected on the difficulty of visiting Leeds United, writing: “The crowd invariably give us the impression that a lynching would be too good for us.” On this occasion, Manchester United did not deliver any sense of calm under Carrick. Instead, they left Elland Road with a performance that raised as many issues as it settled.

Lisandro Martínez drew attention for his criticism of Manchester United’s technical director Jason Wilcox, and his verdict on Carrick was similarly guarded. “He does his best,” the World Cup winner said.

“Every season is different. You can’t stay with what you did last season. The teams know how you play, they know every detail, if you don’t change next season [it] is a big problem.”

Carrick responded with a bold tactical adjustment. United moved away from their usual 4-2-3-1 and set up in a fluid system that changed with the phase of play and Leeds’ positioning. Out of possession, they shifted into a back five, with Amad Diallo tracking Gabriel Gudmundsson’s advances. With no natural left winger or center forward in the starting XI, Carrick used Bryan Mbeumo alongside Bruno Fernandes and Youri Tielemans in a narrow front three. That front line combined neatly for the opener, as Tielemans released Amad before continuing his run and providing the first-time pass for Mbeumo to finish.

Martínez’s presence was also significant at the back. Carrick ignored the backlash from the defender’s midweek outburst and kept him in the side, and the decision was quickly justified. Before the interval, Leeds were restricted to four shots and only 0.25 xG, with Harry Maguire and Martínez maintaining control. But Martínez went off at half-time after appearing to pick up a knock, and the change soon altered the game.

Noussair Mazraoui came on and was placed to the left of Maguire, while Leny Yoro continued in his hybrid right-back and center-back role. Six minutes later, Yoro’s response to difficult circumstances became even more important after Mazraoui conceded a corner and was beaten in the air by Tarik Muharemović, who helped set up Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s equaliser.

United’s midweek trip to Madrid had already left its mark, but Yoro produced a far more encouraging response to his first senior red card. Asked to handle a demanding role in a hostile setting, he repeatedly got across to clear danger as Leeds increased the pressure.

Bruno Fernandes, though, remains short of his best. Since his hat trick against Ipswich Town at the end of August, he has produced a goal or assist in only one of his next eight appearances for Manchester United, and that came against Azerbaijan upstarts Sabah FK.