Mikel Arteta publicly criticised two recent refereeing decisions he believes altered the course of Arsenal’s title challenge. The manager addressed incidents in matches against Newcastle United and Manchester City that he said occurred at “crucial moments.”

In the 74th minute at St James’ Park, Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope received only a caution after coming off his line to take down Viktor Gyökeres. The Premier League’s Match Center noted the foul was not deemed a denial of a goalscoring opportunity “due to the close proximity of a Newcastle defender, who had the possibility to claim possession of the ball.” Arteta was unequivocal. “I have to say as well in my opinion, it is a clear red card. I have watched it 10 times. If you have ever played football, it is a red card.”

That decision did not prevent Arsenal from taking three points, but it limited the visitors to a single goal and, Arteta warned, could prove decisive if the title race comes down to goal difference or goals scored.

Arteta then questioned a match at the Etihad Stadium where he believes Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov committed a last-man tackle on Kai Havertz in the 53rd minute. “It is the second time in two games because against Manchester City when Kai Havertz goes through and Khusanov’s fouling him at 1–1, the title is there. It is a red card,” the 44-year-old said. Eight minutes later Erling Haaland scored the match-winner, a result that pulled City within three points with a game in hand. City then won at Turf Moor against relegation-bound Burnley midweek to go top. Arsenal have since reclaimed first place but have again played a game more.

“So these are the margins as well,” Arteta continued. “Hopefully that is going to change. Everyone will have their opinion, I am here to give my opinion.

“I’m somebody who has been in the game for the long time. You talk to any of the players because the trajectory, where the ball is, there is no keeper there. If that had happened the other way around, it is a red card.”

He added: “I am saying the reality of the last two games at crucial moments when everything is at stake, we need everything to go our way and it hasn’t.” He later qualified his remarks: “I am not giving any excuses. I am the first one to understand. I didn’t talk about it when we lost the game. I am doing it when we won. It is a red card today. It is a red card in Manchester and the world is different. That’s it.”

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta offered a cautiously positive update after Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze picked up problems during Saturday’s Premier League win over Newcastle United.

Arteta played down the severity of both issues at the Emirates, saying the injuries were not believed to be serious and that the pair “could yet feature when Arsenal play the first leg of their Champions League semifinal against Atlético Madrid in the Spanish capital.” He told reporters: “They are muscular niggles, we don’t think it’s too much. We have to wait and see if they’re going to be available for Wednesday,”

Havertz left the field early after pulling up in the first half and walked straight down the tunnel. Eze required on-pitch treatment before taking a seat on the bench. After the game the match-winner told Sky Sports: “I’m alright. I’m all good, it was just a precaution. I didn’t want to do anything [more severe], I’ll be O.K.”

The optimism is tempered by recent history. Just last month, Eze dismissed concerns over any injury before being forced to sit out three games, including the Carabao Cup final, with a calf problem. Any absence for either player would harm Arsenal’s chances of ending a 22-year wait for a Premier League title and their bid to reach and win their first Champions League.

Viktor Gyökeres remained on the bench behind Havertz for a second successive match as Arteta persisted with the German as his centre forward. Gyökeres, signed so Havertz could occupy a deeper role, has struggled for impact against weaker opposition and is yet to score a non-penalty goal against any of the Premier League’s current top 10. Arteta picked Havertz as his No. 9 a week ago against Manchester City and again for the visit of Newcastle, with Gyökeres introduced only when the German could not continue.

The jury is still out on Eze following last summer’s $90 million (£67.5 million) transfer from Crystal Palace. He has scored five of his seven Premier League goals this season in just two matches against Tottenham Hotspur—and only two against anyone else.

Opta’s supercomputer has maintained a clear preference for Arsenal as the title run-in tightens following Saturday’s fixtures. The model assigns Arsenal 81.52 predicted points from their current 73 and a 70.85% chance of winning the title. Manchester City, on 70, are forecast to finish on 79.35 points with a 29.15% chance.

Mikel Arteta warned there would be “plenty more strife to come” after his side’s win, and he insisted the Newcastle match was “Game One” of a five-match shootout. Opta’s projection appears to value remaining fixtures as much as form: Arsenal still face two of the current bottom four, plus Crystal Palace and Fulham, while City’s run includes Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and a final day trip to Aston Villa.

The supercomputer also sees the Champions League places effectively settled. Manchester United, Liverpool and Aston Villa — each on 58 points — are predicted to finish on 65.75, 63.99 and 64.27 respectively, with qualification chances above 96% for all three.

Europa and Conference places are less clear. Brighton lead the models for sixth with a projected 56.41 points and a 44.69% likelihood of finishing sixth. Bournemouth, Chelsea, Brentford, Fulham and Everton remain in contention but are given substantially lower chances.

At the other end, Burnley and Wolves are confirmed as relegated in the projections with 100% probabilities. Leeds and Nottingham Forest are given minimal relegation risk, while West Ham and Tottenham occupy the precarious middle. Opta gives West Ham a 38.26% relegation probability and Tottenham a 58.57% chance. The draft weekend drama left Spurs briefly out of the drop zone on April 26 before events at other grounds swung matters back: João Palhinha’s winning goal at Molineux and Everton’s late equalizer earlier in the day were followed by Callum Wilson’s winner for West Ham, ensuring his side remained two points clear of Tottenham.

Opta’s forecast narrows the gap between the top two to two predicted points, underscoring how small margins over the final fixtures may decide the title.