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Opta Model Rates Morocco Top Contender for 2025 AFCON

Opta’s model gives Morocco a 19.1% chance to win AFCON; Egypt, Senegal and Algeria close behind. via

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The Opta supercomputer places Morocco as the clear favorite to win the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. Hosting the tournament for the first time since 1988, Morocco combine home advantage with recent international form: they are FIFA’s highest-ranked African nation at 11th and their fourth-placed finish at the 2022 World Cup remains in recent memory. The model assigns Morocco a 19.1% chance of lifting the trophy.

Morocco’s squad depth helps explain that projection. Achraf Hakimi is listed as the talisman, supported by Brahim Díaz, Noussair Mazraoui and Yassine Bounou.

Three of the supercomputer’s four leading candidates come from North Africa. Egypt sits on a 12.4% chance. Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush and their teammates arrive with expectations after finishing runners-up in 2021, although Egypt have not claimed the title since 2010. Senegal are narrowly behind on 12.3%. The 2021 champions are the second highest-ranked African nation at 19th in FIFA’s standings. Twenty of their travelers play in Europe’s top five leagues, while three of the seven who do not are Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mané.

Algeria are given a 12.0% chance of a third title. They last triumphed in 2019 and their squad includes Rayan Aït-Nouri, Mohamed Amoura and 34-year-old captain Riyad Mahrez.

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Nigeria are the fifth favorites at 7.3%. Despite offensive quality from Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, the supercomputer flags Nigeria’s defence as short of elite options.

Tunisia (6.8%) and reigning champions Ivory Coast (6.7%) register almost identical probabilities. Tunisia have reached the quarterfinals in four of the last five tournaments. Ivory Coast, while no longer inspired by the generation that included Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, still possess ample talent after winning on home soil two years ago.

Mali (6.4%) and Cameroon (4.1%) are long-shot possibilities. Cameroon face internal turmoil after a public dispute between Cameroonian Football Federation president Samuel Eto’o and manager Marc Brys; Brys refused to be sacked on the eve of the tournament and selected his own squad despite Eto’o also choosing a roster. South Africa (2.2%), DR Congo (2.0%) and the tournament underdogs Zimbabwe (0.2%) and Botswana (0.2%) complete the lower end of the model’s projections.

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Analytics & Stats

Arteta Accepts Contract Question: Trophies Will Decide His Future

On his sixth anniversary, Arteta says he must “earn the right” to remain by winning major trophies..

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Mikel Arteta used the sixth anniversary of his appointment to set clear terms for his future at Arsenal: success must be earned on the pitch. The manager pointed to the silverware the club still seeks despite the progress made under his tenure.

Arteta led Arsenal to the 2020 FA Cup title in an empty Wembley Stadium and followed that with the first of two Community Shields a few months later. The club has finished second in each of the past three seasons, but the Premier League title remains absent from his CV. His current deal runs until the summer of 2027.

Ahead of a trip to Everton, which was the first match after Arteta’s appointment and in which he watched a 0–0 from the stands while Freddie Ljungberg concluded his interim spell, he was asked if he could see himself remaining beyond 2027. “Yes,” he quickly replied, “but it’s about today. And a lot of things have to happen in the next few months as well to earn the right. I think a manager has to earn the right to be here tomorrow. And that’s how you react, how you talk here, how you go in the dressing room, the message that you send, how much the players follow you. I always say that you need support. I said it before, from ownership and the board is great.”

On the subject of measurable progress, Arteta reflected on performances and records while acknowledging the missing trophies. “You look at the performances, all the records that we had that they were breaking in the history of the club… We still haven’t managed to do that [win trophies]. But that tells you the level that we are in, which is a level that the Premier League has never experienced in the past. And that we want to achieve even higher goals. And if we do that, I think we are on the right path to winning.”

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He also credited the collective effort. “One man cannot really change anything,” he argued. He spoke of sustained commitment: “For six years, I’ve seen just players with a level of attention, desire to learn and give the maximum to the team,” Arteta beamed when speaking about the satisfaction he gets from managing Arsenal. “That is what it gives me in this job. Nothing else. And obviously winning a lot of football matches, that percentage-wise I think is quite high.”

Statistically, Arteta leads Arsenal managers with the best win ratio among those who have overseen at least 50 games: 314 games, 59.7%. The club’s historical figures such as Arsène Wenger, Herbert Chapman and George Graham remain benchmarks until major honours are added.

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Injury toll exposed: Arsenal hit 100 while United top five-year cost chart

Arsenal have recorded 100 unique injuries since August 2024; United lead five-year injury costs est.

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New figures show Arsenal have recorded 100 unique injuries since August 2024, leaving the club top of a recent tally of fitness setbacks across the Premier League, per Sky Sports News. Brighton sit second on 97, Tottenham 90, Newcastle 86 and Aston Villa 85. Manchester City recorded 82, while Chelsea and Man Utd are level on 78. The wider table runs through Wolves (72), Crystal Palace (69), Liverpool (67) and others down to West Ham on 43.

White was the most likely candidate to tip Arsenal into triple digits. The buccaneering defender has been injured on nine separate occasions over the past 18 months, keeping him out for a yawning 166 days and counting. Intriguingly, Declan Rice is deemed to be the second-most injury-prone Arsenal player, racking up eight different fitness setbacks. However, the formidably durable midfielder has only been forced out for 33 days, forever sustaining a knock which is just as swiftly brushed off.

Arsenal are currently without a whole glut of defenders, forcing the few fit players to overload themselves in the process of covering for their absent teammates. Arteta has been at pains to lament this “really dangerous” cycle and warned that the fitness woes won’t stop at 100. In the words of the beleaguered manager, Arsenal are “buying tickets for another injury.”

Across a longer span, the Howden Football Injury Index (via The Times) has calculated the financial toll from 2020–21 to 2024–25. Manchester United top that five-year list with 399 recorded injuries and a total injury cost of £154.5 million. Chelsea follow on 357 injuries (£137.9 million), Newcastle 355 (£105 million) and Arsenal 322 (£99.7 million).

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United posted the worst injury records in the Premier League in three of the last five seasons (2020–21, 2022–23 and 2023–24). Lisandro Martínez is still being gently ushered back after damaging his ACL 10 months ago in February, while Harry Maguire and Matthijs de Ligt are currently battling fitness complaints. That shortage of senior defenders prompted Amorim to start the 19-year-old Ayden Heaven in the middle of his back three for the first time after Bournemouth on Monday, and the hosts shipped four goals at Old Trafford.

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Gameweek 13: Ten standout Premier League performances ranked

FotMob ratings identify the top 10 performers from Premier League gameweek 13 action. Read rankings.

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FotMob match ratings provide the framework for this roundup of the 10 best performers from Premier League gameweek 13. The list highlights players whose contributions shaped results across a busy weekend.

Maxim De Cuyper began Sunday’s trip to Nottingham Forest in an unfamiliar position as a winger and finished up front, racing through the centre to fire home Brighton & Hove Albion’s opening goal in a hard-fought victory.

Nottingham Forest’s highest-rated player of the match was midfielder Elliot Anderson, who produced a rich individual display. He created a game-high six chances, won 12 duels and completed six dribbles, leading the match in those statistics.

Aston Villa extended their winning run to five in all competitions with a 1–0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Scotland international John McGinn played the pass that set up Boubacar Kamara’s stunning winner and finished the game with four chances created, the most on the pitch for Unai Emery’s side.

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Liverpool’s 2–0 victory over West Ham United featured multiple narratives. Alexander Isak scored his first Premier League goal for the Reds, Florian Wirtz produced one of his best displays of the season, and Lucas Paquetá’s late red card drew attention. Cody Gakpo combined for Isak’s goal with an assist on the hour and then sealed the result with a stoppage-time strike.

Sunderland recovered from two goals down to beat Bournemouth 3–2. Enzo Le Fée converted the penalty that initiated the comeback and later assisted Brian Brobbey for the winning header.

Brentford’s Igor Thiago scored twice in a 3–1 win over Burnley. His tally of 11 goals in 13 games for the Bees is bettered only by the 14 of Manchester City’s Erling Haaland.

Manchester United looked in trouble against Crystal Palace until Bruno Fernandes supplied two assists in quick succession: a free kick for Joshua Zirkzee’s equaliser and another dead-ball delivery that allowed Mason Mount to score the winner. Fernandes now has five assists this season and leads the Premier League in that statistic.

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Newcastle United’s 4–1 win over Everton featured strong displays from two young players. Lewis Miley, making only his third start, scored, assisted and produced notable defensive work. Malick Thiaw headed Newcastle in front after 56 seconds and added another header to seal the Magpies’ first away win of the season; he also won six aerial duels and made five headed clearances against Thierno Barry.

Manchester City’s Phil Foden struck twice in a dramatic 3–2 win over Leeds United, scoring the fastest goal of the season at 59 seconds and then the winner a full 90 minutes later. City manager Pep Guardiola reflected: “Phil has that [mentality] … ‘Give me the ball, I want to dribble, I want to score and win the game.’” “He has this ambition and mentality since he was a little boy and I’m happy for what he did. He was the man to win the game.”

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