Arsenal
Opta Model Keeps Arsenal Clear Favourite After London Derby Draw
Opta still favours Arsenal after the London derby draw; Man City revived by Phil Foden’s late winner
Opta’s supercomputer still rates Arsenal as the most likely Premier League winner after a weekend that left the title race intact.
Arsenal shared the points in the London derby, a result that followed Moisés Caicedo’s red card and left Chelsea with a draw as the best possible outcome in the circumstances. Arsenal sit on 30 points after Gameweek 13, but Opta projects them to finish on 81.39 expected points and assigns a 79.14% chance of lifting the trophy.
Manchester City moved back into contention with a 3-2 victory over Leeds United secured by a last-gasp winner from Phil Foden. City currently have 25 points and, on Opta’s model, are expected to finish on 70.27 points with an 11.30% probability of winning the title. Chelsea remain third in the projection with 24 current points, an expected 65.94 points and a 4.08% title chance.
Opta’s forecast suggests Arsenal would complete the season 11 points clear of Manchester City, and that claiming the league with 81 points would match Leicester City’s 2015–16 total, described in the projection as the fifth fewest points collected by a Premier League winner of all time. For Arsenal, the unwanted statistical footnote is secondary to ending a 21-year Premier League title drought.
Beyond the title race, Opta predicts the battle for Champions League qualification to be tight. Liverpool are projected to finish fourth after their 1-0 win over West Ham United, with an expected 63.35 points. Aston Villa are close behind on an expected 63.14 points, followed by Brighton and Crystal Palace in the congested pack.
Newcastle United are forecast to climb back into the top half and finish around eighth on 58.03 expected points. Manchester United’s 2-1 comeback over Crystal Palace nudged them up in the projection, with Brentford rounding out the top 10. According to the model, the top five clubs are most likely to secure Champions League places, while Arsenal remain the clear favourites to take the title.
Arsenal
Arteta: Mosquera faces extended layoff as Arsenal cope and secure Brugge win
Arteta: Mosquera out for weeks; Arsenal manage absences as Timber and Calafiori miss out in Brugge..
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta confirmed Cristhian Mosquera will be sidelined for longer than first feared, a setback that added to a mounting availability problem before Wednesday’s Champions League fixture at Club Brugge. “Unfortunately he’s going to be out for weeks,” Arteta said ahead of the trip. “Unfortunately, it’s much more than what we expected, but the player was feeling it, so he’s going to be out for weeks.”
The injury situation worsened further when Jurriën Timber, who has been used primarily at right back and recently deputised for Mosquera, was ruled out after sustaining a “really bad kick” in Saturday’s defeat to Aston Villa. “It was too early” for Timber to return, Arteta added, while Riccardo Calafiori was only fit enough to occupy a place on the bench.
Those late absences forced Arteta into an unplanned reshuffle and a last-minute selection change, with Christian Nørgaard drafted into the middle of the backline for the trip. The former Brentford captain has seen limited action since his arrival, a combination of his own fitness problems and the strong start by Martín Zubimendi restricting his chances in his preferred midfield role. On Wednesday, however, Nørgaard impressed in a defensive role.
Arteta was full of praise after the 3–0 victory in Belgium. “It’s a really positive evening and I think it’s very difficult to win away from home in the Champions League,” he said. “We’ve done it with a lot of absences, especially in the backline and even this morning we lost two players.
“I love the way the team reacted to that, collectively, individually, for example what Christian Nørgaard has done just talks about how much better he makes all of us with his attitude, with his commitment in the manner that he prepares and is able to perform. So yeah, overall a really positive night.” The result offered a timely boost for a side managing multiple defensive issues while progressing in Europe.
Arsenal
Gabriel Jesus Added to Arsenal’s Champions League List After Max Dowman Ankle Injury
Max Dowman out for rest of calendar year; Gabriel Jesus added to Arsenal Champions League list. Wed.
Arsenal have moved to replace Max Dowman in their Champions League squad after the youngster sustained an ankle injury while featuring in an U21 friendly against Manchester United. The club said Dowman picked up the problem in that match, which also included Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Mikel Arteta had left Gabriel Jesus out of the travelling party that lost 2–1 to Aston Villa in Birmingham so the forward could get meaningful minutes with the U21s. With Dowman now sidelined, Arsenal have used the one permitted amendment to their league phase list under the UEFA rule introduced at the start of the season and registered Jesus ahead of the knockout stage. The club noted the change without giving further detail on the severity of Dowman’s injury.
The 28-year-old forward is immediately eligible for Wednesday night’s trip to face Club Brugge, though whether Arteta will select him straight away is not certain. Arsenal’s fitness record remains a concern: since the start of last season the club have recorded 93 different injuries, a total topped only by Brighton & Hove Albion among Premier League teams, per Sky Sports News.
The Gunners began the Champions League league phase with five wins from five, leaving their progression largely secure, but Club Brugge should not be underestimated, “just ask Barcelona .” Saturday’s Premier League fixture against Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have collected two points so far, may provide a less pressured setting for Jesus to return to club action.
UEFA rules enforce a 60-day delay before any player dropped from a squad for medical reasons can return to the competition. Dowman may be re-registered in January but will not be available for selection until Feb. 6, 2026, by which time Arsenal will have completed all eight league phase fixtures. Barring a significant collapse, Arsenal are expected to avoid the knockout playoff and proceed directly to the last 16, with first legs scheduled for March 10–11, 2026.
Arsenal
Arsenal Confront Fitness Concerns Ahead of Club Brugge Trip
Declan Rice missed Tuesday training before Club Brugge. Saliba, Gabriel and others remain sidelined.
Arsenal entered the build-up to Wednesday’s Champions League trip to Club Brugge with fresh fitness questions after Declan Rice did not take part in the club’s open training session. Rice also failed to emerge for Tuesday’s training with the rest of Mikel Arteta’s squad, and no explanation has been provided for his absence. It is unclear whether the issue is connected to the injury he suffered against Brentford six days earlier.
Arteta is expected to give an update on the England international in his prematch press conference on Tuesday. The timing is delicate: Arsenal remain the only side with a perfect record in this season’s Champions League league phase, having picked up 15 points from their first five games, but defeat in Belgium would cost them top spot in the group.
Rice was not the only influential player absent from Tuesday’s session. Leandro Trossard, who returned from an ankle injury to score against Villa, was also not spotted at training. The ongoing absence of centre back William Saliba remains a significant problem for Arteta. The manager claimed Saliba was “days” away from a return before the Brentford game, but Saliba now stands to miss a fourth consecutive outing across all competitions if he does not recover before Wednesday.
Gabriel is also sidelined with an injury that may have brought his 2025 to an abrupt end. Arteta recently confessed Arsenal may have to do without the pair for “a period of time .” Cristian Mosquera is facing his own extended spell on the treatment table, a situation that has prompted Arteta to open the door to a centre back signing once the January transfer window opens.
For now, Piero Hincapié is the only natural centre back available. The squad contains several versatile options: Jurriën Timber played centrally last time out against Villa, while Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori can operate at both centre back and fullback. Arteta must manage that versatility as he prepares his team for a potentially decisive match in Belgium.
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