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Opta Model: Arsenal Still Favoured After Gameweek 11 Stumble

Opta predicts Arsenal will still lead 2025-26 despite Gameweek 11 slip; Man City and Liverpool chase.

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Arsenal and Liverpool both dropped points in Gameweek 11, but Opta’s projection model continues to favour Mikel Arteta’s side for the 2025–26 Premier League title. Arsenal drew 2–2 and Manchester City thrashed Liverpool 3–0 at the Etihad, bringing City within four points of the leaders.

Opta’s supercomputer places Arsenal top with 26 current points and an expected total of 80.21 points, giving them a 65.49% chance of winning the title. Man City sit on 22 points and are projected to finish on 72.73 points with a 19.43% title probability. Liverpool, on 18 points after the Etihad defeat, are forecast to end the season on 69.20 points with an 8.89% chance.

Despite the draw against Sunderland, the model still sees Arsenal as the most likely champions. Opta notes Arsenal’s projected 80 points would be four fewer than the total Liverpool required to win last season. The projection also indicates that a title won with around 80 points would rank as the fourth-lowest champions total in league history.

Below the top three, Opta projects a tight fight for Champions League qualification. Chelsea are projected to finish fourth on 63.20 expected points with a 39.23% Champions League probability. Aston Villa and Crystal Palace are forecast to battle for the fifth spot, with Villa on 60.00 expected points (23.78%) and Palace on 59.49 (22.06%).

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Bournemouth are still in the hunt and are projected to finish on 57.15 points (13.35%), while Manchester United are forecast at 56.34 points with an 11.55% chance of making a return to Europe’s biggest stage. Brighton (55.86 expected points, 10.79%) and Tottenham Hotspur (55.01 expected points, 9.88%) round out Opta’s projected top 10.

Opta’s forecast assumes the top five in the English top-flight are likely to qualify for UEFA’s premier club competition. Injuries and red cards have affected Chelsea’s 2025–26 campaign after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph, according to the projection context.

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Ødegaard’s return remains uncertain as Norway outlines gradual rehab plan

Solbakken says Martin Ødegaard is ‘some distance away’ from returning as rehab continues with Norway

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Nigelly paced updates from Norway suggest Martin Ødegaard is not yet ready to rejoin Arsenal’s matchday squad. Norway manager Ståle Solbakken said the midfielder remains some way from full fitness and will continue a phased rehabilitation with the national team.

Solbakken offered a measured assessment at the start of the November international window. “[Ødegaard’s recovery] is steady,” he explained. “It is going in a steady direction but he is some distance away.”

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has been cautious about a timetable and, before the break, suggested the playmaker was “not far off ” alongside other sidelined players Kai Havertz, Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli. That optimism has been tempered by Solbakken’s remarks.

Similar to Manchester United centre back Lisandro Martínez , Arsenal have permitted Ødegaard to split his recovery over the coming weeks between his club and Norway. Solbakken outlined the planned schedule: “He will fly in [to Oslo] after his rehab on Thursday,” he confirmed. “Then he will continue his rehab with us and will be with us from Thursday afternoon.

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“I don’t know when the flight leaves. But he will be with us until Milan [on Nov. 16].”

Arsenal had hoped to welcome Ødegaard back in time for the north London derby, but doubts over his availability emerged when it was reported he would be out until “at least” after the November break. Ødegaard himself acknowledged the uncertainty, calling it “tricky” to pin down a return date and saying much will depend on when he is able to resume training fully.

The club and country will continue to co-ordinate his programme over the international period, with Solbakken’s update underlining a cautious approach to the midfielder’s comeback.

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CIES’s Top Ten Teenage Values: A Season-by-Season Snapshot

CIES lists the ten most valuable teenagers: Bergvall, Endrick, Quenda, Lewis-Skelly and others. 2025

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Scouting, data and transfer inflation have pushed more teenagers into football’s economic foreground. CIES Football Observatory’s valuation of the ten most valuable teens captures that shift, and the list reads like a map of recent transfers and early breakthroughs.

Tottenham Hotspur’s Lucas Bergvall arrives first in this story. Spurs paid £8.5 million for the Djurgarden midfielder and, after a breakthrough in 2025, his market value has risen sevenfold. CIES ranks him among the top ten teenagers after a spell adapting to London life when Ange Postecoglou had no choice but to trust the fearless Swede.

Palmeiras produced Endrick and Estêvão. Endrick moved to Real Madrid in a deal reported at $69.4 million, made 37 appearances mostly from the bench in his debut season and has since seen first-team chances limited under Xabi Alonso; a loan to Lyon was mooted. Estêvão joined Chelsea in the summer for an initial £29 million ($38.1 million) and has made an encouraging start at Stamford Bridge.

Sporting CP’s Geovany Quenda will join Chelsea next summer after a £44 million ($57.8 million) agreement. Quenda broke through in Lisbon under Ruben Amorim, became Sporting’s youngest-ever goalscorer and has transitioned from wingback to final-third operator.

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Arsenal’s Hale End continues to supply talent. Myles Lewis-Skelly moved from youth central midfield to operate at left back for Mikel Arteta, has been encouraged to come inside and is now a fully fledged England international. Ethan Nwaneri, who made Premier League history in September 2022 at 15, finished 2024–25 with nine goals in all competitions and remains a key young playmaker.

Paris Saint-Germain’s Warren Zaïre-Emery has earned praise from his manager, who described the then-17-year-old as “humble” and “very intelligent” back in September 2023. “He’s a leader, not with his words but on the pitch,” the PSG manager recently said of Zaïre-Emery, who is adding goals to his game.

Real Madrid paid as much as $73.2 million for Franco Mastantuono after a 2025 Apertura that included a memorable free-kick in the Superclásico. Barcelona’s Pau Cubarsí is the only centre back in the top ten, noted for his passing and partnership with Iñigo Martínez. CIES also highlights Feyenoord’s Givairo Read as the second most valuable teenage fullback, valued at $32.2 million.

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Arsenal v Everton moved to Dec. 20 to protect midweek Cup schedule

Arsenal v Everton moved to Dec 20 to accommodate a Carabao Cup quarter-final three days later. Dec20

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Arsenal’s Premier League fixture against Everton has been moved to Dec. 20 to allow the club to play a Carabao Cup quarter-final against Crystal Palace three days later. The Premier League and broadcasters needed to find a slot that permitted live coverage in the U.K., which limited available options.

Crystal Palace’s European commitments added complexity. Oliver Glasner’s side face KuPS on Dec. 18, the penultimate game in a sequence that will see them play 10 matches between Nov. 22 and Dec. 23. That congested run left little room to shift the cup match without creating knock-on problems across the calendar.

Christmas Eve was considered for the Carabao Cup quarter-final but was rejected to avoid disruption for travelling supporters so close to the holiday, Arsenal noted in a club statement. As a consequence of the rearrangement, Arsenal will now face Everton on Dec. 20 at 8 p.m (GMT). Palace’s game against Leeds was also moved to the same kick-off time, creating a compact schedule for all involved.

Arsenal addressed the potential impact on fans directly in their announcement. “The welfare of our players, supporters, and staff is our priority, and we fully understand this change of date may result in challenges for supporters travelling to Liverpool for the game,” the club said. “Therefore, we are organising additional supporters’ coaches for this match. All coach travel will be subsidised for supporters, priced at £10 for the return journey to Everton.”

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For Palace, the schedule still requires two matches in three days between Dec. 18 and Dec. 20, but the club has limited alternatives because the team is already playing twice a week through to mid-January. The rearrangement reflects an attempt to balance broadcast commitments, cup scheduling and supporter welfare within a crowded fixture list.

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