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Arsenal v Nottingham Forest: Tactical Notes, Injuries and Predicted XIs

Arsenal welcome Nottingham Forest after the international break; injuries influence expected lineups

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The Premier League resumes after the September international break with Arsenal hosting Nottingham Forest at the Emirates in Gameweek 4. Forest arrive under new management after a breakdown in relations between Nuno and the club’s hierarchy that cost the Portuguese his job. Evangelos Marinakis has been linked with Ange Postecoglou since he was ruthlessly sacked by Tottenham Hotspur, and Postecoglou is still chasing his first victory over Mikel Arteta.

Recent form is mixed. Arsenal were narrowly beaten by Liverpool before the break and will be keen to return to winning ways after an earlier run that included a 5–0 win over Leeds and a 3–0 victory over Athletic Club in pre-season. Nottingham Forest’s results since the start of August include a 3–1 win at Brentford and a 0–3 defeat to West Ham. Recent scorelines: Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal (31/08/25); Nottingham Forest 0–3 West Ham (31/08/25); Arsenal 5–0 Leeds (23/08/25); Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest (24/08/25); Man Utd 0–1 Arsenal (17/08/25); Nottingham Forest 3–1 Brentford (17/08/25); Arsenal 3–0 Athletic Club (09/08/25); Nottingham Forest 0–0 Al Qadsiah (09/08/25); Arsenal 2–3 Villarreal (06/08/25); Nottingham Forest 0–0 Fiorentina (05/08/25).

Arsenal have seen Christian Nørgaard and Ben White return to training but neither is expected to start. Piero Hincapié, a Deadline Day signing, has been in action and could make his debut off the bench. The Gunners remain without Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz, while William Saliba is set to miss the game with an ankle injury. Cristhian Mosquera is expected to fill in alongside Gabriel and there could be a first Arsenal start for Eberechi Eze on the left, with Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyökeres either side.

Forest face their own absences. Right-back Ola Aina will undergo hamstring surgery after his issue on international duty, which opens the door for summer arrival Nicolò Savano to get minutes. Nicolás Dominguez, added to Forest’s Europa League squad by Nuno before his departure, is not expected back until later in the autumn. Oleksandr Zinchenko is ineligible to face his parent club.

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Predicted lineups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice, Ødegaard; Madueke, Gyökeres, Eze.
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Sels; Savona, Milenković, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Luiz; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.

Postecoglou has indicated continuity in approach but a pragmatic plan could suit Forest against an Arsenal side desperate to assert themselves at home. Given the transition at Forest, it would not be a surprise if the Gunners claimed the three points with some comfort.

Arsenal

Arteta to Manage Saka’s Minutes as Arsenal Prepare for Champions League Second Leg

Arteta will manage Saka’s minutes ahead of Tuesday’s second leg as Arsenal carry a 1–1 tie. on Tues.

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Mikel Arteta warned he will limit Bukayo Saka’s load after the winger was withdrawn as a precaution at half-time of Saturday’s win over Fulham. Saka had started but was taken off after 45 minutes in the league victory, having recently returned from an injury absence.

“We had to,” the Arsenal boss admitted. “He played 30-odd minutes in Madrid, now he’s played 45 minutes. We need to ramp up his load but we need to be careful because we need him on that pitch.” The remarks offered reassurance to supporters ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League second leg against Atlético Madrid, with the tie level at 1–1.

Saka’s return has coincided with a goal drought among Arsenal’s wide players. After his match-winning first-half contribution on Saturday he was replaced by Noni Madueke. The summer recruit enjoyed a bright start while filling in but has struggled for end product after extended minutes. Noni Madueke has not registered a goal or an assist against top-flight opposition since heading in the opener of a 1–1 draw with Brentford on Feb. 12, 2026.

Leandro Trossard may have created Gyökeres’s third goal against Fulham, but he is still waiting for his first strike of 2026; his last goal against top-flight opposition came on Dec. 30, 2025 versus Aston Villa. Gabriel Martinelli has gone more than three months without finding the net, his most recent goal against top-flight opposition coming on Jan. 28, 2026 versus Kairat.

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During those scoring droughts for Arsenal’s wide players, Saka missed 10 matches through injury, which made his return particularly welcome. “We know what he’s capable of,” Arteta said. “He’s come back in the most important period of the season and now he’s fresh, his mind is fresh, his hunger is at the highest possible height and I think he needed a performance like that to impact the team, so that’s a big platform for Tuesday.”

Saka’s 22-minute cameo in the first leg in Madrid was described as a struggle to find the speed of the contest, and there is hope he will fare better with a start at the Emirates. Availability questions remain elsewhere: Martin Ødegaard missed Saturday’s league outing after reportedly suffering from knee discomfort during the first leg against Atlético.

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Analytics & Stats

Opta Forecast: Arsenal Hold Edge as Title Race, Europe and Survival Remain Tight

Opta model favours Arsenal after 3-0 win; title race, Champions League and relegation remain tight.

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Arsenal sit in control of the Premier League title race after a 3–0 win over Fulham, but the margins are slim. The Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish on 82.28 expected points from their current 76, giving them a 79.70% chance of being champions. Manchester City, on 70 points, are forecast at 79.30 expected points with a 20.30% title probability.

That six-point advantage is meaningful, yet fragile. On paper, Arsenal are in an imposing position, but City face two fixtures that matter: away at Everton on Monday and then Brentford on Saturday. If City are perfect in those games they can erase the gap, and by the time Arsenal next play in the Premier League the two clubs would be level on games played.

The Opta model also lays out the race for Champions League football. Manchester United, on 61 points and an expected 67.03, are shown with a 100.00% chance of qualifying and can confirm their place with victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Aston Villa and Liverpool are close: Villa sit on 58 points with 64.15 expected and a 99.01% chance, while Liverpool also have 58 points with 64.00 expected and a 98.63% chance. Brighton are projected to finish with 55.17 expected points from 50 now and sit on a 0.69% chance of Champions League qualification. Bournemouth (49, 54.45, 0.51%), Brentford (51, 54.30, 0.51%) and Chelsea (48, 53.79, 0.60%) are all shown outside the automatic certainty but still within reach of European action.

At the bottom, the simulation makes relegation clear for two clubs. Burnley (20 points, 22.74 expected) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18 points, 21.02 expected) have 100.00% relegation chances and will be replaced in the Championship by Coventry City and Ipswich Town. The final slot remains undecided. Nottingham Forest (39, 44.12, 0.97%) look relatively safe, while West Ham (36, 39.25, 48.78%) and Tottenham (34, 38.70, 50.22%) are in the precarious positions. Tottenham are currently backed for the drop, although victory over Aston Villa in Sunday’s late game would see Roberto De Zerbi’s side climb out of the relegation zone with four games left to play.

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Arsenal

Saka’s Return Spurs Arsenal to a 3-0 Victory Over Fulham

Saka returned and influenced Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham; Gyökeres with a first-half brace. Strong.

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Bukayo Saka returned to the starting line-up and played a decisive role as Arsenal recorded a 3-0 home win over Fulham. The result allowed the Gunners to protect energy ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League semifinal second leg against Atlético Madrid while improving their goal difference as a domestic margin.

The performance was Saka’s most influential since a Champions League match with Monaco in December 2024. After that game Arteta challenged his winger to “go to the next step” which came with the target of scoring “30 or 40” goals in a season. Injuries, linked in the piece to Arteta’s demands on his constant involvement, have limited Saka’s minutes. The Fulham match was his first start in any competition since the March international break and lasted 45 minutes.

Arteta had said pregame: “Penetration is one of the words we use the most,” Arteta fretted pregame, “players taking initiative and making things happen … It’s extremely difficult against a team that is so organized, so we need to find other ways.” One chosen route was to involve Saka early, and he produced the spark Arsenal needed.

Viktor Gyökeres opened the scoring after Saka created the opening opportunity, and the Swedish striker later provided the pass for Saka’s goal. Gyökeres’s first-half brace and Saka’s contribution left the home crowd satisfied. Saka did not emerge for the second half, the only noticeable concern from an otherwise controlled afternoon.

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Player ratings (selected):
GK: David Raya 7.7
RB: Ben White 7.1
CB: William Saliba 7.0
CB: Gabriel 7.3
LB: Riccardo Calafiori 7.5
CM: Declan Rice 7.4
AM: Eberechi Eze 6.5
RW: Bukayo Saka 8.7
ST: Viktor Gyökeres 9.1
LW: Leandro Trossard 8.6

Subs of note: Noni Madueke (46’ for Saka) 6.3; Martín Zubimendi (64’ for Rice) 6.9; Gabriel Jesus (64’ for Gyökeres) 6.1.

Key match statistics: possession 54% to 46%; expected goals 2.97 to 0.43; total shots 18 to 10; shots on target 9 to 1; big chances 7 to 1; passing accuracy 89% to 83%; fouls 7 to 12.

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