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Premier League Gameweek 3 score predictions: every fixture assessed

A full Premier League Gameweek 3 prediction rundown, with score calls for every fixture this weekend.

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After two rounds of the new season, the picture is beginning to sharpen. Some early assumptions have been reinforced, others have already been challenged, and the first weekend after the summer transfer window now brings another full slate of Premier League action.

There is also a marquee meeting on the schedule, with several late arrivals still settling into their surroundings and the campaign starting to take clearer shape.

Here is a match-by-match view of how the weekend may unfold.

Ipswich 1-2 Liverpool
Ipswich return home after being brought back to reality at Old Trafford, while Liverpool arrive unbeaten in the head-to-head, having won four of the last six meetings. The hosts have never beaten Liverpool at Portman Road in Premier League history.

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Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Newcastle followed their opening victory with a road win at Tottenham, but this fixture has often been awkward for them. Bournemouth have taken points on recent visits to St. James’ Park, and Newcastle have already faced more shots than any other side through the first two weeks.

Brentford 2-0 Sunderland
Brentford were checked by Leeds last time out, yet remain one of the division’s more physically imposing and lively teams. Sunderland showed better signs in their home game against Fulham, but they may struggle in West London.

Brighton 1-1 Leeds
Brighton were hit hard by Chelsea, though their response after going 3-0 down offered encouragement. Leeds, meanwhile, have started brightly and have never won at the Amex in 10 visits, but this group looks stronger than previous versions.

Fulham 0-0 Crystal Palace
Both sides are still waiting for their first point. Fulham may play attractive football, but issues without the ball remain a concern, while Crystal Palace are preparing for the added demands of European competition.

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Man City 4-0 Coventry
Coventry already face another major test after losing at home last weekend. Manchester City have rebuilt quickly this summer and look capable of producing a heavy win.

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham
Tottenham’s summer spending has not yet translated into calm or consistency, while Forest have been better than their points total suggests. The hosts have won the last four meetings.

Hull 1-1 Aston Villa
Hull have surprised many by taking maximum points and keeping two clean sheets. Aston Villa, despite summer changes, still have work to do after failing to register a shot on target in their last outing.

Everton 1-2 Man Utd
Manchester United responded well to their first defeat by putting Ipswich to the sword, with Bruno Fernandes in especially sharp form. Everton, by contrast, look short on depth in key areas.

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Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea
Chelsea’s recent record against Arsenal is poor, but their new manager has already made a visible impact. Arsenal remain strong, yet Chelsea appear well placed to test them in a match that could be more open than recent meetings.

Fixtures and predictions
Ipswich 1-2 Liverpool
Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Brentford 2-0 Sunderland
Brighton 1-1 Leeds
Fulham 0-0 Crystal Palace
Man City 4-0 Coventry
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham
Hull 1-1 Aston Villa
Everton 1-2 Man Utd
Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea

Differentials

GW9 budget midfield: Tonali, Enciso or Rudoni?

Tonali offers playing time and defensive contributions, Enciso more attacking involvement, and Rudoni a saving. Match the choice to your planned starts.

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Pick your cheapest playable midfielder around the job he needs to do. At £5.3m, Sandro Tonali offers a strong playing-time record and more defensive contributions than Julio Enciso or Jack Rudoni. Enciso gives you more attacking involvement for another £0.2m. Rudoni costs £4.9m, with a shorter average appearance to weigh against the saving.

We would consider Tonali for a slot that needs dependable playing time, Enciso when attacking returns take priority, and Rudoni when the extra cash improves another starter. Each choice involves a compromise. Decide your planned starts before spending a transfer on a small price difference.

Tonali: playing time with a defensive contribution caveat

Tonali has averaged 87.1 minutes per match for Spurs. His 10.07 defensive contributions per 90 minutes, or DefCon/90, exceed Enciso’s 6.84 and Rudoni’s 7.95. He has the strongest case of the three if you want playing time and a route to extra points through defensive work.

Keep your expectations measured. Across his last six league matches, Tonali recorded 12, 11, 11, nine, 15 and 12 defensive contributions. Those near misses show why you should allow for matches without a defensive contribution return. A season average cannot tell you which side of the scoring threshold he will finish on in a particular fixture.

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He also has the lowest attacking involvement rate in this comparison: 0.21 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes, or xGI/90. You accept less attacking threat in exchange for his playing-time record and defensive contribution rate.

Spurs host Crystal Palace in GW9, visit Leeds in GW10 and host Ipswich Town in GW11. Tonali fits a plan that needs cover across those weeks, provided the final team news supports his selection. His average playing time describes his record so far; it guarantees no future start.

Enciso: pay £0.2m for more attacking involvement

Enciso costs £5.5m and has averaged 80.6 minutes per match for Ipswich Town. At 0.46 xGI/90, he has offered more than twice Tonali’s attacking involvement rate. You pay £0.2m extra for that route to returns while accepting a lower defensive contribution rate and less playing time per appearance.

His immediate fixtures are Hull City away in GW9 and Bournemouth at home in GW10, followed by Spurs away in GW11. Check whether you need him for that third fixture before treating him as a purchase for the whole run.

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We would lean towards Enciso over Tonali if the £0.2m leaves your other plans intact and you want attacking potential from this midfield slot. Expected goal involvements measure season-to-date performance, so avoid reading 0.46 as a forecast for the next match.

Rudoni: the saving comes with a playing-time trade-off

Rudoni costs £0.4m less than Tonali and £0.6m less than Enciso. He has averaged 69.4 minutes per match for Coventry City, alongside 0.52 xGI/90 and 7.95 DefCon/90.

His attacking involvement rate leads this group, but he has played fewer minutes per appearance. Compare the time you expect him to spend on the pitch as well as his per-90 threat. Do not add a permanent penalty role to his buying case while that role remains uncertain.

Coventry host Sunderland in GW9, visit Everton in GW10 and host Crystal Palace in GW11. Rudoni makes sense when you can use those home fixtures and spend the saving on another starter. A cheap substitute you seldom select may be enough; a midfielder you need for several consecutive starts deserves a closer look at playing time.

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Choose the slot before making the transfer

All three have the official FPL midfielder classification and current available status. Availability alone confirms no place in the starting XI. Recheck the team news before the GW9 deadline.

Map out the starts you need and compare the midfield options in We Play FPL, where you can review player statistics and upcoming fixtures side by side. Use that comparison to test whether the saving improves your intended XI.

Our preference depends on the squad: Tonali for his playing-time record and defensive work, Enciso for more attacking involvement at a modest extra cost, or Rudoni to release money for a specific upgrade elsewhere. Keep your current enabler if a sideways move leaves the rest of your team no better off.

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Chip Strategy

GW9 Liverpool defence: Jacquet, Araujo or Van Dijk?

Jacquet offers Liverpool defensive value at £5.1m; Van Dijk has the stronger playing-time record. Compare the price tiers and plan your starts from GW10.

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Jeremy Jacquet is our first Liverpool defender to consider if you want to keep the cost down. At £5.1m, he costs £0.3m less than Ronald Araujo and £1.3m less than Virgil van Dijk. His playing-time record and defensive contribution rate make that saving worth taking seriously.

For a new purchase, we would reassess after Arsenal at home in GW9. You can then decide whether Liverpool’s GW10–14 fixtures suit the weeks you need a defender. Van Dijk offers the stronger playing-time record if you have room for £6.4m; Araujo needs a clearer reason for the extra spend over Jacquet.

Jacquet offers the cheaper route

Jacquet has averaged 85.3 minutes per match, with 9.37 defensive contributions per 90. Araujo has averaged 61.6 minutes per match and 7.85 defensive contributions per 90. Neither average promises a future start, but Jacquet has given owners more playing time so far.

The attacking numbers offer little reason to pay up for Araujo. Jacquet has 0.07 expected goal involvements per 90 (xGI/90), compared with Araujo’s 0.02. Both rates are low, so we would buy either for the defensive role and budget fit rather than an expectation of regular attacking returns.

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Araujo has the lower expected goals conceded rate: 0.97 xGC/90 against Jacquet’s 1.16. That deserves a place in the comparison, but the players have spent different amounts of time on the pitch. We would not treat it as proof that choosing Araujo gives you a better chance of a clean sheet in the next match.

Our lean is Jacquet when choosing between the two at current prices. Fresh selection news could change that call. Paying another £0.3m makes more sense if you can identify a role or playing-time advantage that the current record does not show.

Van Dijk costs £1.3m more for a stronger minutes record

Van Dijk has averaged 90.0 minutes per match. That is the strongest record of the three, alongside 9.75 defensive contributions per 90. His 1.20 xGC/90 and 0.05 xGI/90 do not establish a large expected-performance advantage over Jacquet.

At £6.4m, we would choose Van Dijk when you can afford the premium and place a high value on his playing-time record. You still need to check availability and selection news; a historical average cannot guarantee his next start.

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For a tighter budget, Jacquet leaves £1.3m available elsewhere. Compare what you gain from that saving with the extra playing-time confidence you want from Van Dijk before committing to either player.

Plan the starts from GW10

Liverpool’s schedule after Arsenal includes three away matches in five:

  • GW10: Crystal Palace away.
  • GW11: Man Utd at home.
  • GW12: Everton away.
  • GW13: Sunderland at home.
  • GW14: Chelsea away.

You need a plan for that whole stretch. A lower price helps, but you may still want another defender available for selected away fixtures. You can compare Liverpool’s defensive options in We Play FPL using player statistics and upcoming fixtures, then map out the starts in the planner.

We would shortlist Jacquet for value and Van Dijk for the stronger playing-time record, then revisit the choice after GW9 with fresh team news. Araujo’s lower xGC/90 merits attention, but his shorter average appearances and higher price leave us preferring Jacquet for the cheaper slot. These season-to-date rates describe past performance; they do not predict clean sheets or attacking returns.

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Differentials

GW9 cheap forwards: Evanilson, Calvert-Lewin, Jackson or Barry?

Evanilson gets our vote for regular starts. Calvert-Lewin and Barry suit planned rotation, while Jackson offers Villa’s six-match run at a higher price.

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Evanilson is our GW9 pick if you need a forward to start through the next fixture run. At £6.2m, he costs £0.1m more than Dominic Calvert-Lewin and £0.5m less than Nicolas Jackson. Calvert-Lewin suits a squad with cover for difficult away matches, Jackson deserves consideration over six Gameweeks, and Thierno Barry offers the cheapest route at £5.6m.

Choose the role before making the transfer. You can accept a difficult fixture on a rotating third forward. You have less room for one when you need him in your XI each week.

Evanilson: our first choice for regular starts

Bournemouth face Leeds at home in GW9, Ipswich away in GW10 and Nott’m Forest at home in GW11. Evanilson gives you a route through those three matches without planning an immediate benching or another transfer.

He has started eight league matches and averages 84.8 minutes per match. His 0.41 xG/90 and 0.13 xA/90 produce 0.54 expected goal involvements per 90. Those season-to-date measures describe the chances he has had and created; they do not promise future returns.

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We prefer him to Jackson when the extra £0.5m matters and you want a forward for the next three deadlines. Bournemouth then visit Fulham before hosting Brighton and Hull in GW13–14, so you can also consider a longer hold.

His selection record supports the purchase, but competition can change. Check the team news before treating eight starts as a guarantee of the ninth.

Calvert-Lewin: plan the bench before buying

At £6.1m, Calvert-Lewin has averaged 85.4 minutes per match and produced 0.47 xG/90 alongside 0.02 xA/90. He also has first penalty priority. You can make a sound case for him when you can choose his starts.

Leeds visit Bournemouth in GW9 and host Spurs in GW10. The matches that demand planning are Chelsea away in GW11 and Man City away in GW13. Between them, Leeds host Coventry in GW12, with Ipswich at home in GW14.

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Name the player who would replace Calvert-Lewin in your XI for those two away trips. If that player has a good fixture and a dependable role, the rotation can work. If you would have to start a doubtful substitute or spend another transfer, the £0.1m saving against Evanilson offers little comfort.

You can test those GW11 and GW13 line-ups in the We Play FPL planner before confirming the move. Planning future squad drafts and transfers helps you judge whether you have enough cover.

Jackson: consider the full Villa run

Jackson costs £6.7m. Villa host Fulham in GW9, visit Man Utd in GW10, then face Sunderland at home, Ipswich away, Everton at home and Crystal Palace at home through GW14.

For a manager planning six Gameweeks of starts, that run makes him a credible alternative. The cost is the £0.5m premium over Evanilson. Jackson averages 78.1 minutes per match, with 0.30 xG/90 and 0.14 xA/90. His 0.44 xGI/90 trails Evanilson’s 0.54, so the extra spend depends on how you value Villa’s fixtures and Jackson’s role.

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He sits second in the penalty order. Make the purchase on his open-play prospects and fixture run rather than assuming penalty returns.

Barry: the lowest-cost rotation option

Barry costs £5.6m, saving £0.6m against Evanilson. He has started eight matches, averages 85.3 minutes per match and has produced 0.67 xG/90 plus 0.02 xA/90. His 0.69 xGI/90 leads this group, though you should read it alongside the fixtures rather than turn it into a scoring forecast.

Everton visit Newcastle in GW9 and host Coventry in GW10. Brentford away, Liverpool at home and Villa away follow before Fulham at home in GW14.

We favour Barry when you want a playing third forward and can pick his starts. Coventry and Fulham at home offer two clear uses. Buying him for six automatic starts would require more confidence in the difficult matches between them.

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Pick the forward your XI needs

For regular use from GW9, Evanilson gets our vote. Choose Calvert-Lewin when you can cover Chelsea and Man City away. Consider Jackson when you can afford £6.7m and want Villa’s six-match run. Barry suits a lower-cost third-forward spot with planned rotation.

Before committing, check the latest selection news and your intended XI for GW11 and GW13. A forward who fits those line-ups will serve your squad better than one chosen on price or the latest return alone.

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