Arsenal’s visit to Anfield was supposed to expose the scars of a difficult week. Instead, it produced a result that changes the feel of the 2026/27 Premier League season after only nine matches.

The Gunners arrived with the memory of their defeat at League Two Fleetwood Town still fresh, but they handled the occasion with the sort of control usually associated with champions. Kai Havertz’s early strike gave them the platform, and although Liverpool tried to respond with pressure and noise from the Kop, Arsenal refused to bend. Their victory was built on discipline, patience and defensive resistance, and it leaves the look of a collapse far behind them.

Opta’s latest supercomputer forecast now places Arsenal firmly on top of the table. They are projected to finish with 81.21 points and hold a 68.23% title chance, while Manchester City sit second on 71.98 projected points and 18.86% title odds. Brighton are third in the model, Liverpool fourth and Chelsea fifth.

Arsenal’s surge has also pushed their probability of retaining the Premier League title to 68.23%, a sharp rise after Manchester City suffered a second straight defeat. City remain the nearest challengers, though even their prospects are listed below 19%, not including any possible points deduction. Liverpool, already nine points back, have only a 3.06% title chance, despite being considered the most obvious alternative challenger.

Brighton remain one of the stories of the season after beating both of the top two, but Opta still gives them just a 6.86% chance of winning the league. Their more realistic target is Champions League qualification, where they are the only side outside Arsenal and City with better than even odds.

Further down, Manchester United’s position is bleak. Their winless run in all competitions has reached nine games, and Opta now gives them just a 1.48% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. In the relegation projection, Tottenham have moved clear of danger after three wins in a row, while United are suddenly among those with the greatest risk of dropping into the second tier.

Chelsea goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez has explained the scale of the injuries that have marked the last few months of his career, saying he will never fully close his right hand again after suffering a fractured ring finger during the 2026 World Cup period.

Martínez said the problem began in the Europa League final, when the finger detached and later proved to be broken in half. The former Aston Villa goalkeeper recalled being in tears when he saw the scan, fearing he would not make it to the World Cup. Rather than undergo surgery, he and Argentina’s medical staff chose a different route. He played with a plastic cast, heavy bandaging and a special glove made by adidas, with the finger put back into place and protected throughout the tournament.

The decision allowed him to start every match of Argentina’s run, though he admitted the injury limited him badly. Even on the eve of Argentina’s opener against Algeria, he said he was “diving like a zombie, with just one arm.” He also revealed he trained with a volleyball for most of the competition. Despite that, the finger still prevented a move to a Serie A club, believed to be Juventus, after the World Cup. Martínez said the transfer collapsed when a fresh X-ray showed the finger had broken again.

He eventually completed a move to Chelsea in the final hours of the summer window, but another setback followed soon after. Seven games into his Chelsea career, he collided with Everton defender Jarrad Branthwaite while attempting to claim a free kick. The impact left him with a broken jaw and concussion, and he has no memory of the incident.

“I preferred the jaw than the head to be honest,” Martínez said. “It was one of the most beautiful knockouts, in the UFC that would’ve been the knockout of the night. I saw birds flying around for many days honestly.”

Martínez required four screws in his jaw and is still unable to eat purées. Reflecting on the twin injuries, he said the finger remained the worse problem.

Michael Carrick’s position at Manchester United is becoming harder to defend after Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Chelsea stretched the club’s winless sequence to nine matches in all competitions.

That run matches a low point last seen under Sir Alex Ferguson, but the comparison only goes so far. Ferguson’s side were two years into his spell when they went nine games without a victory, and even then they managed to draw seven of those matches before eventually ending the sequence with a 3-0 win over Charlton Athletic.

Carrick’s case is more damaging because the numbers are sharper and the performances have been poorer over a longer stretch. United have now lost six of their last nine matches in all competitions and drawn the other three. The 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth had already sparked the view that his time could be up, leading to crisis talks before the decision was made to give him another chance.

Against Chelsea, though, there were at least signs of a response early on. United were the better side for the first 45 minutes, with Carrick apparently getting a positive reaction from his players at the start of the match. That opening spell is unlikely, however, to settle the wider debate around his future.

There is clear acceptance at the club that both results and performances are not meeting the required level, and officials are already weighing up possible alternatives, including Eddie Howe and Julian Nagelsmann.

Even so, Carrick may feel he was not entirely betrayed by his own approach. Some of the damage at Chelsea came from individual mistakes, and Lisandro Martínez’s decision to lead with his arm as he jumped with Wesley Fofana cannot be laid at the manager’s door. After the Bournemouth defeat, there were also suggestions that some at Old Trafford recognised the players’ share of responsibility in the slump.