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Opta Simulations Leave Arsenal Favoured as City Cut Lead to Two Points

Opta’s simulations keep Arsenal favourites despite City’s late wins and a tightening title race ’26.

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Opta’s supercomputer still ranks Arsenal ahead in the title race despite Manchester City’s late reply at Brentford and a tightening gap. City reduced Arsenal’s lead to two points with both clubs having three matches remaining, but the model continues to favour the Gunners in most scenarios.

Jérémy Doku had been on target twice against Everton on Monday night, yet those goals could not stop City dropping points in a 3–3 draw. Erling Haaland, who scored against Brentford, insisted his team were “still in it” after the Everton setback. Saturday’s reaction at Brentford and the potential importance of goal difference in this finish were both underlined by City’s late flurry.

Opta’s projections list Arsenal on 76 actual points with a predicted 82.37 points and a 79.7% chance of winning the title. Manchester City sit on 74 actual points with a predicted 79.55 points and a 20.3% title probability. Arsenal were given an 85% chance of winning the league in the immediate aftermath of City’s stumble on Merseyside earlier this week.

The computer’s view takes in upcoming schedules. City are shown with fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa either side of a trip to Bournemouth, a sequence the model judges tricky because Bournemouth remain in the chase for Champions League qualification.

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Elsewhere, Manchester United’s place in the Champions League was effectively sealed as they crawled to a goalless draw with Sunderland in their first game after securing qualification. Opta projects United to reach 68.01 points with a 100% chance of qualifying for Europe’s top competition. Liverpool drew 1–1 with Chelsea and still need another win to guarantee a top-five finish. “We wanted to qualify for it weeks ago,” Slot sighed. “It isn’t the season we’re having, though. Sometimes it is really hard to accept these results because we are used to different ones.”

Bournemouth’s manager reflected on survival and ambition after a 1–0 win over Fulham. “Today was a very important step forward,” Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola beamed after his side battled to a 1–0 win over Fulham on Saturday, “but we still have to get more points.” Brighton’s captain also noted the season’s extremes. “It’s a mental season,” club captain Lewis Dunk gushed, “one minute we’re looking at relegation and now we’re talking about Europe, it’s great fun football, isn’t it?”

On the bottom end, Tottenham conclude the matchday with a crunch clash against Leeds on Monday and their chances of survival have improved, while West Ham do not face Arsenal until Sunday.

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Analytics & Stats

Six Premier League Underperformers in the Opening Weeks of 2026/27

A look at six Premier League names who have fallen short in the opening weeks of 2026/27.

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A new Premier League campaign is usually a time for resets, and this season has offered a longer runway than most for players to settle in. Some have taken advantage. Others, including several high-profile names, have yet to find any rhythm at all.

That contrast has made the early weeks of 2026/27 a useful moment to separate the encouraging from the disappointing. Here, then, are six of the season’s most underwhelming performers so far.

Florian Wirtz has already drawn heavy criticism after another subdued display at Bournemouth. Jamie Carragher was particularly blunt, saying that he doesn’t believe Wirtz “is in poor form; what we’re seeing is what he is.” Liverpool had hoped the €117.5 million arrival would kick on in his second season, but he has started this campaign with only one assist and too often looks peripheral rather than decisive.

Manchester United’s struggles are collective, but several individuals have also fallen short. The side sit 12th with five points and one league win, while Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha and the new midfield additions have yet to impose themselves. Bryan Mbeumo has been pushed wide and has found one-on-one situations difficult, even if he has scored twice.

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At Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres has not convinced. He scored 14 league goals and five more in Europe last season, but this time he has been limited to just 29 Premier League minutes and enters October without a goal.

Sandro Tonali’s move to Tottenham Hotspur carried a huge price tag, yet the early return has been modest. He can carry the ball and protect transitions, but he still looks better suited to a more balanced midfield around him.

Chelsea’s switch from Robert Sánchez to Emiliano Martínez was framed as a statement of intent, but Martínez has conceded 10 goals in four league appearances and remains exposed by the team’s defensive structure.

Dominic Solanke completes the list. Tottenham’s attack has lacked control and reliability, and the striker looks well below the standard needed right now.

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Man Utd’s five-point start: what the previous precedent says

United’s five-point start mirrors a past low, but history suggests the campaign is far from defined yet.

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Manchester United have not got the opening to 2026-27 they would have wanted after last season’s strong finish, when Michael Carrick’s side collected 39 points from a possible 51 across their final 17 league matches. Instead, five points from five games have left them matching their lowest Premier League-era return at this stage of a campaign.

The early results have been uneven. Hull City struck twice from set pieces on opening day, Ipswich Town were beaten in a high-scoring game, Everton later rescued a point late on, Manchester City won through a refereeing and VAR error that has since been acknowledged, and Fulham exposed United during a slow opening 70 minutes. Even so, the underlying figures suggest the team are still reaching useful areas: no side has more touches in the opposition box than United’s 182, while they have allowed the fewest touches in their own box at 92.

That is why Carrick does not appear alarmed. The numbers point to adjustment rather than upheaval, although the results have yet to settle into consistency.

This is not the first time United have been here. Their previous five-point start came in 2014-15, when Louis van Gaal arrived after David Moyes’ brief spell ended and expectations rose around a new era. The club had reinforced heavily with Ander Herrera, Luke Shaw, Ángel Di María, Marcos Rojo, Daley Blind and Radamel Falcao, but the early weeks were slow. A home loss to Swansea City, away draws with Sunderland and Burnley, and a shock Carabao Cup exit to MK Dons set the tone.

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United did recover. Di María inspired a first league win against Queens Park Rangers, before an extraordinary collapse against Leicester City ended in a 5-3 defeat after the team had led 3-1. Van Gaal’s side later pieced together two separate runs of six straight league wins and finished fourth, though they never properly threatened the title.

The broader record shows that a low total after five games is not always decisive. United have often recovered, even from modest starts, and only one perfect five-from-five return has been achieved across 35 Premier League seasons. The opening month matters, but it rarely tells the full story.

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Premier League Matchday 5: every side judged before the international break

A full Premier League Matchday 5 review before the season’s first international break arrived.

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The first international pause of the season arrived with a final round that felt, in every sense, like a term-end review. Before attention turns away from the Premier League for three weeks, there was one more set of performances to assess.

Arsenal were out of the contest almost immediately. After just 18 seconds, they were forced back into their own corner from the opening throw-in and never recovered. The 3-0 defeat was made to look even heavier by Brighton’s two fine long-range efforts, but the visitors were second best throughout. It was the sort of loss that invites awkward questions.

Nottingham Forest could not settle the nerves at the City Ground. Oliver Glasner admitted that the “entire City Ground was nervous” and his side did little to calm the atmosphere in a stubborn game against Coventry. The manager was left “frustrated” and “disappointed,” emotions echoed in the stands once the tension took hold.

Tottenham continue to frustrate, only in a different way. Roberto De Zerbi sounded exhausted by another 3-2 defeat, insisting, “These players, they don’t need to play better,” before adding that what Spurs require is more “blood” and “fight.”

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Chelsea’s defeat at Brentford followed a more gradual collapse. There was little obviously wrong in the opening hour, and Xabi Alonso had wanted his side to be more “boring,” but the match quickly slipped away. Ipswich, meanwhile, stayed alive despite conceding early and finishing with 10 men at Everton, where Gary O’Neil said, “The only disappointment is the result.”

Leeds had a clear chance through Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but the fresh England call-up could not convert. At the other end, James Trafford was busier than Walter Benítez in a game that ended in another encouraging clean sheet for Pierre Sage’s side.

Manchester United’s trip to Fulham brought fierce criticism, with Gary Neville saying, “I’ve watched Manchester United since the age of 5,” and that the second half’s opening 15 minutes were “the worst 15 minutes I’ve ever seen.” Fulham settled for a “frustrating” 1-1 draw, while Calvin Bassey called it “a game of luck, we both had it on our side.”

Elsewhere, Everton’s win was functional rather than elegant, Aston Villa needed a lift and got one, Bournemouth were left empty-handed, Sunderland earned admiration despite defeat at the Etihad, Newcastle held on after a nervy finish, Liverpool were second best for long spells, and Manchester City’s chaotic game left Enzo Maresca saying, “Too many goals,” before admitting, “I’m always concerned, always trying to see what we can do better.” Coventry’s long wait for a Premier League win finally ended, and Frank Lampard had every reason to enjoy it.

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