Cole Palmer will not miss a Premier League match after his red-card suspension was absorbed by Chelsea’s midweek Carabao Cup tie with Liverpool. The one-game ban will be served in that fixture, leaving him available for league duty despite the dismissal.

The midfielder’s night turned late in the contest after stand-in goalkeeper Mike Penders helped the visitors in front with a costly own goal in the 77th minute. Soon afterwards, Palmer picked up a second yellow card, having already been booked for running into Mateus Fernandes. On another occasion, that incident might have brought a red card immediately, but the greater problem came when he stood on Conor Gallagher’s ankle.

The scheduling and the FA handbook have combined to spare Palmer from a Premier League absence, although he will miss Chelsea’s next match, which is the trip to Anfield. That means he will not be available for the fourth round Carabao Cup tie on Wednesday night.

Chelsea’s record at Anfield remains a poor one. They have not won there in front of fans since 2018, when Eden Hazard inspired a side managed by Maurizio Sarri to a Carabao Cup third round victory. This time, however, their No. 10 will be watching from the sidelines.

Palmer addressed the fallout on social media the next morning. “Not good enough by me,” he wrote on Instagram. “Live n learn. Apologies. On to the next.”

The manager was more restrained in his assessment and chose not to publicly escalate the issue. “I need to check the action to talk with Cole, but it is one to learn for the future for sure,” he said after the match.

He added: “I think that Cole, when he is focused on the game, when he is enjoying, and today after the 1–0, it is a moment to keep calm, a moment to keep mature and for everyone.”

Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

The Premier League returns after another midweek round of continental action involving nine English clubs, and Gameweek 8 arrives with little room for recovery. Several of the league’s biggest sides are back in action quickly, while a number of awkward fixtures could shape the standings before the weekend is over.

Friday’s opener at Portman Road looks finely balanced. Ipswich Town have collected nine points from seven matches and have taken two-thirds of that tally at home, with wins over Sunderland and Fulham lifting them to 10th. Nottingham Forest, however, arrive with their own issues, and goals have been difficult to come by for the Tricky Trees. A draw feels the likeliest outcome.

Aston Villa’s meeting with Man City is one of the standout fixtures on Saturday. Villa have won five of their last six, while City have maintained a perfect Premier League run, though their domestic record remains surrounded by uncertainty off the pitch. Even so, their form under Pep Guardiola has been efficient, and with Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden in encouraging touch, they are tipped to edge it.

Arsenal are expected to keep pace at the top with a home win over Everton. The Gunners remain defensively solid, even if their attack will be without Bukayo Saka, while Everton are likely to sit deep and counter through Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish.

Chelsea’s clash with Tottenham Hotspur closes Saturday and the home side look strong favourites. Spurs have won only once at Stamford Bridge in 25 years, while Chelsea have scored 17 goals in seven matches under Xabi Alonso. João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have all been in form.

Elsewhere, Liverpool’s meeting with Brighton has the feel of a high-scoring draw, Man Utd are predicted to share the points with Bournemouth, and Sunderland’s test against Leeds United could be decided by fatigue after their trip to Poland.