Analytics & Stats
How Arsenal Could Clinch the 2025/26 Premier League Before April Ends
Arsenal can clinch the 2025/26 Premier League before the end of April if City lose their next three.
Arsenal sit in a position where the title can be secured before the end of April, but only under a narrow sequence of results. Opta’s supercomputer is confident enough to rate Arsenal’s chances at north of 97%. That statistical edge underlines how likely the outcome appears, while acknowledging there are still matches to play and a Manchester City side capable of finding form.
The earliest practical coronation requires five specific outcomes across mid-April. Arsenal must beat Bournemouth on April 11. On April 12 Chelsea must beat Manchester City. On April 19 Arsenal would need to win at Manchester City. City would then have to lose at Burnley on April 22. Finally, Arsenal cannot lose to Newcastle at the Emirates on April 25; a draw would be sufficient to clinch the title in this scenario.
City have not lost at home to Arsenal since Santi Cazorla inspired a 2–0 victory in January 2015, and eight of the subsequent 11 Manchester meetings have finished as home wins for City. The draft scenario therefore hinges on an uncommon run of results for City, including defeats away from home.
Aside from the head-to-head on April 19, both clubs are expected to be favourites in the remaining fixtures listed for the run-in. Arsenal have beaten every opponent they will face during the run-in this season aside from Manchester City. If Arsenal and City share points at the Etihad and otherwise win their remaining games, the title could be decided on the penultimate weekend of the season.
A potential rearrangement of City’s game-in-hand against Crystal Palace for Wednesday, May 13 would put greater focus on the weekend of May 17. The Premier League has not yet announced kickoff dates for that stage, so it is unclear whether Arsenal would even have to play then. If City drop points at Bournemouth on that weekend, Arsenal would be champions regardless of their match with Burnley; any positive result against Burnley would remove dependence on City’s result entirely.
Analytics & Stats
Salah’s Benchings Under Arne Slot Mirror His Entire Klopp Unused-Sub Record
Three benchings under Slot match Salah’s unused substitute tally under Klopp and escalated tensions.
Mohamed Salah was an unused substitute for the full 90 minutes for the third time under Arne Slot in Wednesday’s 2–0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. That solitary statistic has come to symbolise a fracturing relationship that began earlier in the season when a spell out of the starting XI first triggered questions over his future.
After being benched for three straight games, two of which did not end in a cameo appearance, Salah went public with a vicious attack on Slot from which neither man has recovered. The contrast with his record under Jürgen Klopp is stark: across 349 appearances with Klopp he was an unused substitute on just three occasions, a figure he has already matched in only 87 outings for Slot.
The raw numbers underline the shift. Under Jürgen Klopp: Appearances 349, Starts 317, Substitute 32, Unused Substitute 3. Under Arne Slot: Appearances 87, Starts 80, Substitute 7, Unused Substitute 3.
All three Klopp-era benchings came in 2019–20, a season disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in which Salah still managed 23 goals and 13 assists as Liverpool won the Premier League title. The first unused appearance came at Crystal Palace in November 2019, a fitness-related decision after an ankle issue. Klopp said: “Yesterday was the first session where everything was fine, but it was a bit late then, to be honest,”.
A few weeks later he was left out for the Merseyside derby as Klopp rotated. “We think the game will be really intense and for this you need kind of fresh legs and we try to bring them in,” he explained before a 5–2 victory inspired by fringe stars like Divock Origi, Xherdan Shaqiri and Adam Lallana. A final benching against Everton in June 2020 was again explained as injury-related, with Klopp arguing “the right thing to do” was to protect his unfit superstar.
Slot’s decisions have been defended on similar grounds. When he first benched Salah against West Ham United in November 2025 he insisted: “Four games in 10 days with only 14, 15 outfield players available for us, then you have to decide once in a while to make a certain lineup and you try to pick the best lineup for every single game.” He pointed to squad “balance” against Sunderland and acknowledged: “It’s never an easy decision because we all know what a great player he is,” adding, “But it is also up to me to pick the team that I think we need today. That’s why I made the decision.”
Those selections culminated in the public fallout that helped precipitate Salah’s eventual departure this summer. Slot has accepted the role of the perceived “bad guy” in that process.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Model Still Backs Arsenal as Cup Defeats Shift Momentum
Opta model still rates Arsenal top after cup losses; City short odds, Villa rise in Champions chase.
Arsenal’s recent defeats in domestic cup competition have altered the mood around the club, but Opta’s simulation still places Mikel Arteta’s team firmly on top of the Premier League. Southampton’s 2–1 win that eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup and the north London side’s loss in the Carabao Cup final have intensified talk that Arteta’s side are primed to ’bottle’ a title run, but the numbers tell a less dramatic story.
Opta’s supercomputer lists Arsenal with 70 current points and an expected points tally of 84.57, giving them a 97% title probability. Manchester City sit second on 61 points with expected points of 74.82 and a 3% chance of overtaking Arsenal in the title race. Opta notes Arsenal’s title chance has only dropped by 0.77% since the two teams last played a league fixture.
Manchester City reinforced their recent cup momentum with a 4–0 FA Cup quarterfinal win over Liverpool in which Erling Haaland scored a hat-trick. That result, alongside City’s Carabao Cup success, has shifted perception, and City’s probability will increase significantly if they beat Arsenal at the Etihad on April 19.
Behind the top two, Opta’s projections show Manchester United on 55 points with expected points of 66.06 and an 86.33% chance of reaching the Champions League places. Aston Villa sit close behind on 54 points, expected 65.12 and a 77.38% probability. Liverpool (49 points) and Chelsea (48 points) have lower projected chances of finishing in the top five, at 21.95% and 10.12% respectively, while Brentford and Everton have only slim hopes.
At the bottom, the model highlights Burnley and Wolves as overwhelmingly likely to be relegated, while West Ham and Tottenham have seen their survival odds shift after recent results. Tottenham’s recent managerial change to Roberto De Zerbi followed Igor Tudor’s 44-day spell, and a home loss to Nottingham Forest has increased Spurs’ relegation probability to 26.33%.
Al Nassr
Ronaldo at 100 SPL Games: How the First 100 in Saudi Stack Up Against Europe
Ronaldo reached 100 SPL appearances, scored twice in his centenary and early league numbers compared.
Cristiano Ronaldo reached 100 Saudi Pro League appearances in Friday’s match against Al-Najma. He scored twice in that 100th game as Al-Nassr won 5–2. Ronaldo joined the SPL in early 2023 and the centenary milestone invites a straightforward comparison with his first 100 matches in Europe’s top leagues.
The five-time Ballon d’Or winner began his rise as a teenager in the Premier League with Manchester United. Across his first spell at the club (2003–09), and a brief return (2021–23), he totalled 236 Premier League appearances, 103 goals and 47 assists. In his first 100 Premier League matches he recorded 19 goals and 14 assists, according to StatMuse.
Ronaldo’s most prolific period arrived at Real Madrid over nine seasons (2009–18). In La Liga he made 292 appearances, scoring 311 goals and providing 95 assists. In his first 100 La Liga matches he scored 111 goals, including 14 hat tricks, according to StatMuse. That 111-goal start in Spain is 14 more goals than his output in the SPL, a gap that highlights how his scoring rates have varied across stages of his career.
After La Liga, Ronaldo moved to Serie A with Juventus (2018–22). He made 98 league appearances there, scoring 81 goals and adding 21 assists. Individual honours followed, including Serie A MVP for 2018–19 and Serie A Best Striker in 2020–21.
Beyond domestic leagues, Ronaldo has been prolific in European competition. In the UEFA Champions League he has 140 goals and 50 assists in 183 appearances.
The simple arithmetic of first-100 appearances underlines a career of evolving output. Age and the comparative level of the Saudi Pro League are referenced frequently when measuring his current returns against the double-digit scoring feats he produced earlier in La Liga and other top flights.
