With six Premier League fixtures remaining, the race for Champions League qualification carries an unusual twist tied to Aston Villa’s progress in the Europa League. Villa’s European campaign has been consistent even as their domestic form has fluctuated. They eliminated Bologna, beating the Serie A side 7–1 on aggregate in the Europa League quarterfinals, and now face Nottingham Forest in the semi-finals.

Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini offered a stark assessment after the tie: “When you face such a strong team, you take your hat off and applaud,” and “They’ll definitely win the Europa League.” That outcome would have direct consequences for Premier League clubs chasing the top four.

England has secured an extra Champions League place this season thanks to English sides’ performances in Europe, so normally the top four qualify and a fifth spot exists. Liverpool currently occupy that fifth position, with Chelsea four points behind. Villa sit above Liverpool by three points and are seven points clear of Chelsea.

The permutations are straightforward. If Villa win the Europa League they will take a Champions League place through that route regardless of their league finish. If Villa also finish fourth, England’s allocation remains unchanged. If Villa finish fifth while also winning the Europa League, the additional European Performance Spot would drop down to sixth. At present that would benefit Chelsea.

Liverpool know the margins are small. The two clubs meet on May 17 in the penultimate round, a fixture that could prove decisive. Despite the turmoil engulfing Anfield this season, Liverpool boast a superior goal difference. If Arne Slot’s side win their remaining six games, they will finish fourth at the very least. Even matching Villa’s results and claiming victory over the Villans next month would secure their position.

Villa are unlikely to fall to sixth, but a slide to fifth remains possible in a season defined by fine margins. That uncertainty is why Chelsea and Liverpool may find themselves unusually invested in Villa’s Europa League journey.

A turbulent weekend at the top of the table has intensified the fight for Champions League qualification. This season the usual top-four contest has become a top-five race after English clubs’ European form secured an extra Champions League berth.

Current league positions are Man Utd 55 points, Aston Villa 55, Liverpool 52 and Chelsea 48. Over the next six weeks those totals and the head-to-head schedule will be decisive.

There are multiple meetings among the four contenders across the remaining fixtures, meaning none can be discounted. Chelsea will place huge importance on the upcoming home match against United. They also travel to Anfield on May 9. Only four points separate Chelsea and Liverpool at present and neither side is likely to enjoy a perfect run to that meeting, which leaves the door open for the Blues with a victory.

For Liverpool, May starts away at United and includes the visit from Chelsea and a trip to Aston Villa. The draft notes that “Three victories would likely seal a spot in the Champions League for Arne Slot’s side, but three defeats could easily have the opposite effect.”

Aston Villa’s immediate run looks comparatively favourable. The club will back itself against Sunderland, Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Burnley in the next four matches and aim to build a cushion before a tougher finish. Villa host Liverpool on the penultimate weekend and finish away to Manchester City, a fixture that is hard to predict. The draft adds that, “Given the current state of the title race, it might be a must-win for the Cityzens, but if their hopes of catching Arsenal are already dead by that point, heads may already be on beaches by the time Villa come to town.”

United, already in a strong position, understand their European aspirations hinge on the next three games. The draft states that victory over Chelsea would have major consequences: “victory over Chelsea would effectively seal a spot in the Champions League, given the gap down to the Blues would be a whopping 10 points.”

Across April and May there are fixtures listed that include matches against Chelsea, Sunderland, Everton, Brentford, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Manchester City. Those dates and meetings will determine how the top five look at the end of the season.

Aston Villa have placed a significant valuation on Morgan Rogers as interest from Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain gathers momentum. Reports in The Times list the three Premier League clubs, while Sky Sports adds Paris Saint-Germain to the group of suitors.

Rogers progressed through West Bromwich Albion as a child and spent time at Manchester City’s academy between the ages of 17 and 20. Villa signed him to a long-term contract in November that runs until 2031, a commitment that leaves the club in a strong negotiating position should they qualify for the Champions League for the second time in three years.

Aston Villa value Rogers at a reported $107.7 million (£80 million). That price would make him the equal-fifth most expensive English player of all time alongside Harry Maguire, behind Jack Grealish, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. The figure is partly shaped by a sell-on clause in Villa’s original agreement: EFL Championship club Middlesborough is owed 20% of any profit following a purchase for up to $18.9 million on Feb. 1, 2024 after only a few months at Boro.

The club faces financial pressure after substantial losses in recent seasons. The club’s only profitable campaign of the last three completed was the result of ‘selling’ the women’s team to its own parent company; UEFA tellingly didn’t recognize that transaction.

Villa will likely prefer to delay serious negotiations until after the summer World Cup for England in the hope a strong tournament raises Rogers’s market value. Arsenal and Chelsea both showed interest last summer before Rogers committed his future to Villa. The Gunners remain in the market for a left winger and have been linked with Anthony Gordon and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Rogers primarily operates as a No. 10 and fits Chelsea’s stated brief for young, developing players. There is fresh speculation elsewhere too: Cole Palmer has been loosely linked with Manchester United, while United themselves lack a natural left-sided forward. Patrick Dorgu had filled that role in Michael Carrick’s opening games before injury. Rogers played that wide role against the Red Devils in December, scoring twice as Aston Villa won 2–1.