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Opta forecast keeps Arsenal top after Molineux slip; Man City close with game in hand

Opta still favours Arsenal after late Wolves equaliser; Man City close with a game in hand. 2025–26.

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Disaster for Arsenal at Molineux has reset the shape of the title race but not its projected outcome. The Gunners were mere seconds away from victory before they conceded a stoppage-time equaliser, leaving points on the pitch they cannot afford with Manchester City breathing down their necks.

City have been reborn in the Premier League title race over recent weeks. Pep Guardiola’s men must wait to respond: their postponed fixture against Crystal Palace has yet to be rescheduled. Should they win that game in hand the gap would fall to two points. Arsenal and City also meet in the Carabao Cup final, adding another layer to the tussle for honours.

Opta’s supercomputer still makes Arsenal the favourites. The model projects Arsenal to finish on 80.58 expected points with an 80.92% title chance. Manchester City are forecast to reach 74.48 expected points with a 15.91% chance. Aston Villa are third in the projection, on 71.02 expected points and a 3.04% title probability. Opta notes Arsenal’s projected 80 points would be the fourth-lowest total for a Premier League winner in history, and the club’s title probability has fallen from 85.81% to 80.92% after the Wolves result.

European qualification looks tight. Thanks to England’s success in European competitions in 2025–26, the top five will likely qualify for the Champions League. Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester Utd are all modelled to finish around 62 points, with Liverpool on 62.96 expected points (34.22% chance of qualifying), Chelsea on 62.73 (36.02%) and Man Utd on 62.44 (29.70%). Brentford sit on 58.27 expected points (7.33%), with Bournemouth, Newcastle and Everton trailing.

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At the bottom, Opta gives Wolves no chance of avoiding relegation and rates Burnley and West Ham as heavy favourites for the drop. Sunderland have exceeded expectations and are projected to finish 11th on 49.68 points, while Nottingham Forest, despite managerial upheaval, are modelled to reach 40.42 expected points. The supercomputer leaves little certainty but a clear picture of who is most likely to triumph and who faces the sharpest fight to survive.

Analytics & Stats

One priority signing each Premier League club should target before the window closes

A club-by-club look at the main transfer priority every Premier League side still needs to address.

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With less than a month left in the transfer window, Premier League clubs are still expected to be busy. Incomings and outgoings remain likely across the division, and every side still appears to have at least one clear gap to fill before the deadline.

Arsenal may be attracting attention with their pursuit of Vinícius Júnior, but their bigger need is in central midfield. Declan Rice carried too much of the load last season, while Martín Zubimendi faded after the break and Myles Lewis-Skelly is not yet fully trusted there. Another box-to-box midfielder would help enormously.

Aston Villa could soon be short at left back if Lucas Digne leaves, which would leave Ian Maatsen as the only senior option. Bournemouth need more depth in wide areas, Brentford still require a more natural left back, and Brighton & Hove Albion must replace the goals lost with Danny Welbeck’s move to Chelsea.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have done plenty of work already but still have not addressed the goalkeeper position. Robert Sánchez improved in 2025-26, yet the club still look in need of a top-class solution.

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Elsewhere, Coventry City are close to signing Carl Rushworth permanently and would then turn to left back. Crystal Palace need centre-back reinforcements after losing Marc Guéhi and Maxence Lacroix, while Everton must add a defensive midfielder after Idrissa Gana Gueye’s departure.

Fulham will look for winger depth after strengthening up front, Hull City want more options in attack, and Ipswich Town are still waiting for a central midfielder. Leeds United may also need another striker to cover for Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s injury record.

Liverpool’s most pressing issue is out wide, Manchester City need a right back, Manchester United still want a more destructive midfielder, and Newcastle are alarmingly short at left back. Nottingham Forest must replace Elliot Anderson in midfield, Sunderland need more balance on the left side, and Tottenham Hotspur have already moved aggressively to rebuild after last season’s collapse.

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Why Andoni Iraola believes Florian Wirtz can still define Liverpool’s season

Iraola wants Wirtz central, involved and freer after a difficult first Liverpool season.

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Liverpool’s new manager has made his view on Florian Wirtz plain: if the club are to take a step forward this season, they will need the German to operate at a high level. The challenge now is putting him in the conditions that suit him best.

Wirtz arrived last summer in a move that was a club-record $156 million (£116 million) at the time, but his first year on Merseyside fell well short of expectation. He did not record a Premier League assist before December and had to wait until Christmas for his first goal in any competition. A short spell of improved form followed around the turn of the year, yet the overall campaign remained deeply disappointing.

Liverpool’s wider struggles were part of the same picture. The side failed to build on the title they won in 2024-25, which led to Arne Slot’s departure and the arrival of Iraola this summer. The new coach is already focused on finding a structure that lets Wirtz show the level that once made him the most expensive British transfer of all time.

The most obvious adjustment is positional. Wirtz is naturally a central attacking midfielder and did the vast majority of his best work for Bayer Leverkusen in the No. 10 role. Slot often used him on the wing last season, partly to fit Dominik Szoboszlai into the side and partly to reduce the physical demands of Premier League midfield play. Iraola has indicated he does not intend to follow that route.

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“We need a very good version of Florian,” the incoming coach warned ahead of Liverpool’s preseason clash with Leeds United . “We know what he can give us. I think he’s also suited to our game model.

“I see him more probably in that position behind the striker. We know that he has played with Germany more on the left sometimes. But, I think we’re going to start working with him in that position behind the striker.”

That matters because Wirtz needs involvement to influence games. Last season he averaged around 16 fewer touches per 90 minutes than in his final Leverkusen campaign, while his dribbles, shots and expected assists all dropped. He was also no longer the sole attacking reference point, with Mohamed Salah demanding the ball from the other side.

Salah’s exit gives Iraola another reason to believe Wirtz can settle into the role more naturally. For a player who takes risks in the final third, the manager’s style may provide the freedom he lacked last season.

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Arsenal’s Left-Wing Options if Vinícius Júnior Remains Out of Reach

Arsenal still have options on the left if Vinícius Júnior stays put, with several names in play.

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Arsenal may not land Vinícius Júnior, and the reasons are fairly clear. The Brazilian is understood to want to stay, while his club do not want to sell. If a move were ever to happen, it would likely come only after a stand-off that suited nobody, whether through a fee this year or a free transfer next year.

Even so, Arsenal still have room to strengthen the left side of their attack. Vinícius would be a major signing on footballing and commercial levels, but any pursuit would force the club to confront affordability, wage structure and the wider consequences of reshaping the dressing-room balance.

There has already been change in that area. Leandro Trossard has been sold to Beşiktaş, and Christos Tzolis has arrived as a younger replacement. Tzolis delivered strong figures at Club Brugge, but the Premier League is a different test. He previously struggled in England when younger, so he looks more like depth, rotation and cover than a headline solution.

That leaves Gabriel Martinelli as the current senior option. He has come under scrutiny after being labelled as having “no significant strengths” by WhoScored in a viral X post this week. Last season he made 53 appearances in all competitions, yet managed only five Premier League goal contributions. His Champions League return was stronger, though that came after several favourable league-phase opponents, and he did not score in the knockout rounds.

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If Arsenal want the level of dominance they believe they are capable of, the left wing still appears to be a position that needs upgrading. Bradley Barcola is one of the most attractive names on the market, though he is reportedly keen on joining Liverpool. Paris Saint-Germain are said to want around $196 million (€170 million, £145 million), a figure far beyond what Liverpool have offered so far.

Marcus Rashford is another possibility. Last season, while serving as a versatile backup to Lamine Yamal and Raphinha at Barcelona, he produced 28 goals and assists across all competitions. Rafael Leão remains another name in circulation after telling AC Milan officials: “I’ve already spoken with the club.” Jack Grealish, meanwhile, is working through an injury-related absence from Manchester City’s preseason tour, but his future remains uncertain after last summer’s loan move.

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