Arsenal
Opta Model Keeps Arsenal Clear Favourite After London Derby Draw
Opta still favours Arsenal after the London derby draw; Man City revived by Phil Foden’s late winner
Opta’s supercomputer still rates Arsenal as the most likely Premier League winner after a weekend that left the title race intact.
Arsenal shared the points in the London derby, a result that followed Moisés Caicedo’s red card and left Chelsea with a draw as the best possible outcome in the circumstances. Arsenal sit on 30 points after Gameweek 13, but Opta projects them to finish on 81.39 expected points and assigns a 79.14% chance of lifting the trophy.
Manchester City moved back into contention with a 3-2 victory over Leeds United secured by a last-gasp winner from Phil Foden. City currently have 25 points and, on Opta’s model, are expected to finish on 70.27 points with an 11.30% probability of winning the title. Chelsea remain third in the projection with 24 current points, an expected 65.94 points and a 4.08% title chance.
Opta’s forecast suggests Arsenal would complete the season 11 points clear of Manchester City, and that claiming the league with 81 points would match Leicester City’s 2015–16 total, described in the projection as the fifth fewest points collected by a Premier League winner of all time. For Arsenal, the unwanted statistical footnote is secondary to ending a 21-year Premier League title drought.
Beyond the title race, Opta predicts the battle for Champions League qualification to be tight. Liverpool are projected to finish fourth after their 1-0 win over West Ham United, with an expected 63.35 points. Aston Villa are close behind on an expected 63.14 points, followed by Brighton and Crystal Palace in the congested pack.
Newcastle United are forecast to climb back into the top half and finish around eighth on 58.03 expected points. Manchester United’s 2-1 comeback over Crystal Palace nudged them up in the projection, with Brentford rounding out the top 10. According to the model, the top five clubs are most likely to secure Champions League places, while Arsenal remain the clear favourites to take the title.
Arsenal
How Ayyoub Bouaddi’s World Cup Showing Has Put Him on Arsenal’s Summer Radar
Arsenal in dialogue with Bouaddi’s representatives after his World Cup display; Lille value at $80.5m.
Arsenal have opened preliminary contact over Ayyoub Bouaddi after the 18-year-old midfielder’s emergence on the international stage. Bouaddi, who plays for Lille in Ligue 1, joined the club as a young teenager and made his senior debut in 2023, three days after turning 16.
Although born in northern France, Bouaddi switched allegiance to Morocco less than a month before starting Saturday’s 1–1 draw against Brazil to kick off the team’s World Cup campaign. In that match he covered ground across the pitch, hardly misplaced a pass and routinely won possession back, drawing attention to his technical poise and energy.
The Times writes that Arsenal are in contact with the player’s representatives, the preliminary stage of any transfer process to gauge interest from the prospective target. No talks have yet begun between the Premier League champions and Lille, who are thought to value Bouaddi at $80.5 million (£60 million). That is a sum in the same ballpark as the fee that brought Martín Zubimendi to London last July.
Arsenal’s recruitment pattern this summer has leaned toward raw, developing talent. The club has already been linked to other teenage prospects, with 16-year-old Leicester City winger Jeremy Monga considered the “priority” target for the summer—although Brentford appear to hold an advantage in the battle for his signature.
Competition for Bouaddi is reported to come from Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea. Given his rapid rise through Lille’s ranks and the visibility of his World Cup performances, it is clear why he is attracting interest from multiple big clubs. For Arsenal, the move would fit a broader strategy of investing in young players with high ceilings, even when valuations demand significant outlay.
Arsenal
Brentford’s renewed interest puts Arsenal at risk in chase for Jeremy Monga
Brentford challenge Arsenal for 16-year-old Jeremy Monga with July 10 contract deadline approaching.
Arsenal face increasing competition from Brentford in the pursuit of 16-year-old Leicester City winger Jeremy Monga this summer. The teenager has been described as a “priority target” for the Gunners as the club looks to consolidate after a summer of heavy spending that helped them become English champions for the first time in 22 years.
Reports in The Times suggest Brentford have “stepped up” their interest and that “formal contact” with the player is expected. Leicester’s relegation from the EFL Championship at the end of 2025–26, and the club’s start to the new season in League One, make Monga’s departure more likely, but there are important timing details that could shape any move.
Monga remains 16 until July 10. That is the date when he turns 17 and can sign a first professional contract with Leicester. If he signs after that date the Foxes can command and negotiate a transfer fee. If he leaves before signing a contract the club would be cut out of the negotiation and would only receive compensation determined by a tribunal under the rules for free agents in England aged 23 or younger, which could be considerably less.
Brentford believe they can offer the young winger more immediate senior opportunities than he might find at a larger club like Arsenal, a factor described as holding “appeal” for the player. There is always the chance that getting stuck on the fringes without consistent opportunities at a bigger club like Arsenal could stall his progress. The Bees can point to a record of developing young players who went on to higher profile moves, such as David Raya and Bryan Mbeumo.
For Arsenal, and for manager Mikel Arteta, missing out would represent a setback in a transfer area identified as a priority. Should Brentford secure Monga, it would shift the balance in a contest that remains time sensitive and highly consequential for all clubs involved. Were Arsenal to prevail, it would leave consequences for Ethan Nwaneri.
Arsenal
Arsenal Consider £34m Move for Christos Tzolis as Attack Targets Multiply
Arsenal weigh a £34m move for Christos Tzolis as they pursue multiple attacking targets this summer.
Arsenal are exploring a move to sign 24-year-old Club Brugge winger Christos Tzolis. Any deal, expected to cost around $46 million (£34 million), is not likely to complicate a potential move for a bigger name like Morgan Rogers, whose price tag is believed to be at least double that of Tzolis.
BBC Sport note that Arsenal’s recruitment chief has already watched Tzolis in action and, after being offered the chance to strike a deal, sporting director Andrea Berta is considering trying to wrap up an early summer deal.
The Gunners have been linked to a whole host of big attackers. Alongside Rogers, the club are reported to be admirers of Atlético Madrid striker Julián Álvarez, while an approach for Juventus winger Kenan Yıldız is thought to have been knocked back.
On paper Tzolis’s record at Norwich City gives reason for caution: he made 14 Premier League appearances for Norwich without scoring in the 2021–22 season and struggled at Carrow Road. In Belgium, however, he has produced a markedly different output.
Across two seasons in Belgium’s top flight, Tzolis has racked up 43 goals and 45 assists in all competitions, including three goals and four assists in the Champions League. Those numbers represent elite output, although questions about the level of the league are valid—Belgium’s top flight is not the Premier League but is still accepted to offer strong competition.
A lethal eye for both goals and assists has developed during Tzolis’s time in Belgium, having previously been largely known for his electric dribbling. It is no surprise that a number of top sides are chasing his signature. Quizzed on interest from Manchester United earlier this summer, Tzolis told Het Nieuwsblad: “United could certainly convince me. Such a big club, with so much history. It would be hard to say no to that.”
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