Arsenal
Opta Model Picks Arsenal After Liverpool’s Late Setbacks
Opta projects Arsenal to lead the 2025/26 title race after Liverpool’s late defeat at Chelsea. Opta.
Opta’s simulation now favours Arsenal to finish the 2025/26 season top of the Premier League after Liverpool slipped in successive late moments. The champions have suffered back-to-back last-gasp defeats and lost their place at the summit following a 2–1 defeat at Chelsea.
The supercomputer projects Arsenal to end the campaign on 77.11 expected points with a 44.23 percent chance of the title. Liverpool are forecast to finish on 74.91 expected points and carry a 30.61 percent title probability. Manchester City are third in the model, on 69.75 expected points and a 14.32 percent chance of reclaiming the crown.
Arsenal hold a one-point edge in the current table and are expected to reach just over 77 points, which would be three more than they managed as runners-up last season. A 77-point championship would be the lowest tally for a Premier League winner since Manchester United with 75 points in 1996–97.
The projections also outline the battle for European places. Chelsea sit fourth in the model with 61.53 expected points and a 31.08 percent probability of a Champions League berth. Crystal Palace are close behind on 60.85 expected points and a 29.17 percent chance of reaching the top four. Newcastle (58.71 expected points, 22.13 percent), Bournemouth (57.65, 17.77 percent), Tottenham Hotspur (57.04, 17.18 percent), Aston Villa (56.09, 13.68 percent) and Brighton (55.19, 11.49 percent) are all shown competing for those additional Champions League positions.
The model notes a clear top three but anticipates a wider contest for the remaining Champions League spots. Liverpool “remained Opta’s favourites after their defeat to Crystal Palace, but Arsenal have now emerged as the supercomputer’s tip to finish top.”
Despite Crystal Palace’s defeat to Everton that ended a long unbeaten run, Opta remains positive on Palace, projecting their best Premier League points total and the prospect of continental progression next season.
Arsenal
Arteta Admits Arsenal Were Outmatched From the First Throw-in at Brighton
Arteta admitted Arsenal were second best from the start as Brighton dominated them in a 3-0 defeat.
Mikel Arteta did not hide his frustration after Arsenal were overwhelmed at Brighton, admitting that his side were second best almost immediately in a defeat that exposed a clear gap in intensity.
Brighton’s 3-0 victory, delivered on the club’s 125th anniversary, was fully deserved and became Arsenal’s heaviest loss in more than three years. Although the opening goal did not arrive until the 31st minute, the contest had already tilted decisively in Brighton’s favour long before that. Their pressing from the first moments left Arsenal struggling to cope, and the visitors never recovered.
“In the first throw, you could sense it, it was so clear,” Arteta fumed, his voice barely raised above a furious whisper as he scowled through his postmatch media duties. “We put ourselves in trouble one time, two times, three times, and we need to get out of that much quicker. And that’s one of the biggest lessons that we have to take from the game.”
Arsenal were warned by Brighton’s recent form without the ball, and Arteta acknowledged that the message had been discussed beforehand. “The first thing that we had discussed, it was about the first pass,” Arteta confirmed. “If you don’t get out of that first pass as winners, it will be extremely difficult to dominate the game, and you don’t have any probability of winning the game.
“We knew that, but that’s again, credit to them for what they’ve done, because they overcame us, and they had another edge than we did, and that’s something that, at this level, it’s extremely important to respect and to understand before anything else.”
He also accepted that Brighton were stronger in the decisive duels. Arteta said Brighton “had another bite.” “There was a lot of moments when the ball is 50-50, and it changes hands, and most of the time it was for them.”
Asked whether he had considered a halftime change, Arteta admitted the thought was there but said he chose against it. “I was,” Arteta admitted after a moment of reflection, “but I would believe it wasn’t the right moment to do that with the things that we wanted to change for the second half.”
Arsenal
Tottenham’s home record under scrutiny after latest defeat as Arsenal’s day also sours
Tottenham’s home numbers worsen after Villa, while Arsenal’s perfect start ends with a 3-0 loss.
Tottenham Hotspur’s difficult start to the season took another turn on Saturday after defeat to Aston Villa left them with an unwanted statistic attached to their name.
According to Opta, Tottenham have now lost 50 of their 141 Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since it opened in April 2019. That is the same number of league defeats Arsenal have suffered at the Emirates Stadium across 382 top-flight matches since their move from Highbury in July 2006.
The numbers underline how costly home form has become for Tottenham. Across all competitions, they have won only five of their last 36 matches on home soil, and only two of those victories have come under De Zerbi’s guidance.
That figure will not have been lost on Arsenal supporters, but any satisfaction was brief. Just hours later, the reigning Premier League champions suffered their first defeat of the campaign.
At the Amex Stadium, Brighton & Hove Albion produced a dominant display to beat the Gunners 3-0, and their fans made their feelings known with the chant, “Are you Tottenham in disguise?”
Arsenal, who had begun the season in perfect form, were repeatedly opened up by Brighton’s pressing and made to look unusually vulnerable. Their defence, which had conceded only once in the Premier League before the trip to the south coast, was breached three times as the visitors endured one of their weakest performances in recent years.
What had looked like a team growing increasingly secure in the early weeks of the campaign ended with Arsenal heading back to the capital having suffered a setback that matched the frustration Tottenham were already facing.
Arsenal
Arsenal’s press-resistant ideals unravel in Brighton setback
Arsenal’s stubborn build-up play was exposed by Brighton, who forced a rare and damaging Premier League setback.
Arsenal’s visit to Brighton & Hove Albion ended as a sharp reminder that the principles which carried them last season can quickly turn against them when applied without flexibility.
Mikel Arteta had described the match as “a beautiful game to watch, I’m sure.” For Brighton, that prediction proved accurate. Arsenal were trapped by the home side’s pressure for long spells and repeatedly tried to play through a press that was designed to suffocate them.
The visitors rarely escaped their own half and, instead of choosing a more direct route, persisted with short passing close to goal. David Raya’s distribution drifted repeatedly into trouble, Martin Ødegaard was forced into endless turns in search of an opening, and Kai Havertz dropped deep without solving the problem. The result was an approach that only made Brighton’s job easier.
Arsenal’s inability to adapt stood out all the more because this is normally a side praised for its discipline and humility. On this occasion, they looked stubborn rather than assured. The match state demanded a different solution, especially against a Brighton side that had already proven how dangerous its pressing can be.
Once Brighton took control, Arsenal became increasingly stretched. The home side registered 17 shots, the most any Premier League team has managed against Arsenal since Manchester United’s opening-day performance last season. Brighton did much of its damage from turnovers, although two long-range attempts also highlighted a familiar weakness for Raya, who is more exposed by shots from distance than by efforts inside the box.
After falling behind to Pascal Groß’s opener, Arsenal grew more erratic in search of an equaliser. Bukayo Saka came close before the break, but that brief surge forward only left more space for Brighton to exploit.
There was also a touch of old frustration late on. Declan Rice, visibly unhappy at being moved to right-back for the final period, appeared to lose his composure. He had already spent some time spiraling before the full-time whistle, and his reaction summed up a frustrating afternoon for Arsenal.
