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CIES Model Names Predicted Champions Across Europe’s Top 15 Leagues for 2025-26

CIES predictions list winners for Europe’s top 15 leagues in 2025-26, showing wide probability spread.

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The CIES Football Observatory has applied a statistical model that combines sporting, economic and demographic variables to forecast the winners of Europe’s top 15 divisions for the 2025-26 season. The study focuses on competitions ranked by UEFA coefficient, excluding Norway’s Eliteserien, which began in March.

England’s Premier League remains the continent’s most prominent competition in the dataset. The model gives Liverpool a 28.9% chance to defend their title, with Arsenal forecast as the principal challengers at 18.8%. That 28.9% figure is the third lowest probability among the top 15 leagues in the analysis.

Italy’s Serie A proved difficult to call. Napoli arrive as reigning champions, but Inter are tipped to take the crown, assigned a 25.6% probability despite a change of management over the summer.

In Spain, the CIES model favours Real Madrid to reclaim La Liga. Barcelona, who won the title last season, are given 29.6% compared to Real Madrid’s 40.6%. The report notes the arrival of Xabi Alonso as a factor that could help Los Blancos recover from an underwhelming 2024-25 campaign.

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Germany and France appear more predictable. Bayern Munich are projected to win the Bundesliga with a 61.4% chance, while Paris Saint-Germain are heavily favoured in Ligue 1 with a 73.0% probability. The study points out PSG have won 11 of the last 13 French first division titles and that only Red Star Belgrade in Serbia registers a higher single-league percentage in the analysis.

Elsewhere, Feyenoord are backed to reclaim the Dutch title with 28.6%, overturning PSV Eindhoven’s recent run. Club Brugge are expected to surpass Union Saint-Gilloise in Belgium with a 36.3% chance. Sporting CP, Galatasaray, Slavia Prague, Olympiacos, Copenhagen and Basel are each tipped to repeat last season’s triumphs. The model also predicts Legia Warsaw will usurp Lech Poznań in Poland and that RB Salzburg will overthrow Sturm Graz in Austria.

Analytics & Stats

One priority signing each Premier League club should target before the window closes

A club-by-club look at the main transfer priority every Premier League side still needs to address.

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With less than a month left in the transfer window, Premier League clubs are still expected to be busy. Incomings and outgoings remain likely across the division, and every side still appears to have at least one clear gap to fill before the deadline.

Arsenal may be attracting attention with their pursuit of Vinícius Júnior, but their bigger need is in central midfield. Declan Rice carried too much of the load last season, while Martín Zubimendi faded after the break and Myles Lewis-Skelly is not yet fully trusted there. Another box-to-box midfielder would help enormously.

Aston Villa could soon be short at left back if Lucas Digne leaves, which would leave Ian Maatsen as the only senior option. Bournemouth need more depth in wide areas, Brentford still require a more natural left back, and Brighton & Hove Albion must replace the goals lost with Danny Welbeck’s move to Chelsea.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have done plenty of work already but still have not addressed the goalkeeper position. Robert Sánchez improved in 2025-26, yet the club still look in need of a top-class solution.

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Elsewhere, Coventry City are close to signing Carl Rushworth permanently and would then turn to left back. Crystal Palace need centre-back reinforcements after losing Marc Guéhi and Maxence Lacroix, while Everton must add a defensive midfielder after Idrissa Gana Gueye’s departure.

Fulham will look for winger depth after strengthening up front, Hull City want more options in attack, and Ipswich Town are still waiting for a central midfielder. Leeds United may also need another striker to cover for Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s injury record.

Liverpool’s most pressing issue is out wide, Manchester City need a right back, Manchester United still want a more destructive midfielder, and Newcastle are alarmingly short at left back. Nottingham Forest must replace Elliot Anderson in midfield, Sunderland need more balance on the left side, and Tottenham Hotspur have already moved aggressively to rebuild after last season’s collapse.

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Why Andoni Iraola believes Florian Wirtz can still define Liverpool’s season

Iraola wants Wirtz central, involved and freer after a difficult first Liverpool season.

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Liverpool’s new manager has made his view on Florian Wirtz plain: if the club are to take a step forward this season, they will need the German to operate at a high level. The challenge now is putting him in the conditions that suit him best.

Wirtz arrived last summer in a move that was a club-record $156 million (£116 million) at the time, but his first year on Merseyside fell well short of expectation. He did not record a Premier League assist before December and had to wait until Christmas for his first goal in any competition. A short spell of improved form followed around the turn of the year, yet the overall campaign remained deeply disappointing.

Liverpool’s wider struggles were part of the same picture. The side failed to build on the title they won in 2024-25, which led to Arne Slot’s departure and the arrival of Iraola this summer. The new coach is already focused on finding a structure that lets Wirtz show the level that once made him the most expensive British transfer of all time.

The most obvious adjustment is positional. Wirtz is naturally a central attacking midfielder and did the vast majority of his best work for Bayer Leverkusen in the No. 10 role. Slot often used him on the wing last season, partly to fit Dominik Szoboszlai into the side and partly to reduce the physical demands of Premier League midfield play. Iraola has indicated he does not intend to follow that route.

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“We need a very good version of Florian,” the incoming coach warned ahead of Liverpool’s preseason clash with Leeds United . “We know what he can give us. I think he’s also suited to our game model.

“I see him more probably in that position behind the striker. We know that he has played with Germany more on the left sometimes. But, I think we’re going to start working with him in that position behind the striker.”

That matters because Wirtz needs involvement to influence games. Last season he averaged around 16 fewer touches per 90 minutes than in his final Leverkusen campaign, while his dribbles, shots and expected assists all dropped. He was also no longer the sole attacking reference point, with Mohamed Salah demanding the ball from the other side.

Salah’s exit gives Iraola another reason to believe Wirtz can settle into the role more naturally. For a player who takes risks in the final third, the manager’s style may provide the freedom he lacked last season.

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Arsenal’s Left-Wing Options if Vinícius Júnior Remains Out of Reach

Arsenal still have options on the left if Vinícius Júnior stays put, with several names in play.

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Arsenal may not land Vinícius Júnior, and the reasons are fairly clear. The Brazilian is understood to want to stay, while his club do not want to sell. If a move were ever to happen, it would likely come only after a stand-off that suited nobody, whether through a fee this year or a free transfer next year.

Even so, Arsenal still have room to strengthen the left side of their attack. Vinícius would be a major signing on footballing and commercial levels, but any pursuit would force the club to confront affordability, wage structure and the wider consequences of reshaping the dressing-room balance.

There has already been change in that area. Leandro Trossard has been sold to Beşiktaş, and Christos Tzolis has arrived as a younger replacement. Tzolis delivered strong figures at Club Brugge, but the Premier League is a different test. He previously struggled in England when younger, so he looks more like depth, rotation and cover than a headline solution.

That leaves Gabriel Martinelli as the current senior option. He has come under scrutiny after being labelled as having “no significant strengths” by WhoScored in a viral X post this week. Last season he made 53 appearances in all competitions, yet managed only five Premier League goal contributions. His Champions League return was stronger, though that came after several favourable league-phase opponents, and he did not score in the knockout rounds.

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If Arsenal want the level of dominance they believe they are capable of, the left wing still appears to be a position that needs upgrading. Bradley Barcola is one of the most attractive names on the market, though he is reportedly keen on joining Liverpool. Paris Saint-Germain are said to want around $196 million (€170 million, £145 million), a figure far beyond what Liverpool have offered so far.

Marcus Rashford is another possibility. Last season, while serving as a versatile backup to Lamine Yamal and Raphinha at Barcelona, he produced 28 goals and assists across all competitions. Rafael Leão remains another name in circulation after telling AC Milan officials: “I’ve already spoken with the club.” Jack Grealish, meanwhile, is working through an injury-related absence from Manchester City’s preseason tour, but his future remains uncertain after last summer’s loan move.

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