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CIES Model Names Predicted Champions Across Europe’s Top 15 Leagues for 2025-26

CIES predictions list winners for Europe’s top 15 leagues in 2025-26, showing wide probability spread.

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The CIES Football Observatory has applied a statistical model that combines sporting, economic and demographic variables to forecast the winners of Europe’s top 15 divisions for the 2025-26 season. The study focuses on competitions ranked by UEFA coefficient, excluding Norway’s Eliteserien, which began in March.

England’s Premier League remains the continent’s most prominent competition in the dataset. The model gives Liverpool a 28.9% chance to defend their title, with Arsenal forecast as the principal challengers at 18.8%. That 28.9% figure is the third lowest probability among the top 15 leagues in the analysis.

Italy’s Serie A proved difficult to call. Napoli arrive as reigning champions, but Inter are tipped to take the crown, assigned a 25.6% probability despite a change of management over the summer.

In Spain, the CIES model favours Real Madrid to reclaim La Liga. Barcelona, who won the title last season, are given 29.6% compared to Real Madrid’s 40.6%. The report notes the arrival of Xabi Alonso as a factor that could help Los Blancos recover from an underwhelming 2024-25 campaign.

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Germany and France appear more predictable. Bayern Munich are projected to win the Bundesliga with a 61.4% chance, while Paris Saint-Germain are heavily favoured in Ligue 1 with a 73.0% probability. The study points out PSG have won 11 of the last 13 French first division titles and that only Red Star Belgrade in Serbia registers a higher single-league percentage in the analysis.

Elsewhere, Feyenoord are backed to reclaim the Dutch title with 28.6%, overturning PSV Eindhoven’s recent run. Club Brugge are expected to surpass Union Saint-Gilloise in Belgium with a 36.3% chance. Sporting CP, Galatasaray, Slavia Prague, Olympiacos, Copenhagen and Basel are each tipped to repeat last season’s triumphs. The model also predicts Legia Warsaw will usurp Lech Poznań in Poland and that RB Salzburg will overthrow Sturm Graz in Austria.

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Analytics & Stats

Premier League Matchday 5: every side judged before the international break

A full Premier League Matchday 5 review before the season’s first international break arrived.

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The first international pause of the season arrived with a final round that felt, in every sense, like a term-end review. Before attention turns away from the Premier League for three weeks, there was one more set of performances to assess.

Arsenal were out of the contest almost immediately. After just 18 seconds, they were forced back into their own corner from the opening throw-in and never recovered. The 3-0 defeat was made to look even heavier by Brighton’s two fine long-range efforts, but the visitors were second best throughout. It was the sort of loss that invites awkward questions.

Nottingham Forest could not settle the nerves at the City Ground. Oliver Glasner admitted that the “entire City Ground was nervous” and his side did little to calm the atmosphere in a stubborn game against Coventry. The manager was left “frustrated” and “disappointed,” emotions echoed in the stands once the tension took hold.

Tottenham continue to frustrate, only in a different way. Roberto De Zerbi sounded exhausted by another 3-2 defeat, insisting, “These players, they don’t need to play better,” before adding that what Spurs require is more “blood” and “fight.”

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Chelsea’s defeat at Brentford followed a more gradual collapse. There was little obviously wrong in the opening hour, and Xabi Alonso had wanted his side to be more “boring,” but the match quickly slipped away. Ipswich, meanwhile, stayed alive despite conceding early and finishing with 10 men at Everton, where Gary O’Neil said, “The only disappointment is the result.”

Leeds had a clear chance through Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but the fresh England call-up could not convert. At the other end, James Trafford was busier than Walter Benítez in a game that ended in another encouraging clean sheet for Pierre Sage’s side.

Manchester United’s trip to Fulham brought fierce criticism, with Gary Neville saying, “I’ve watched Manchester United since the age of 5,” and that the second half’s opening 15 minutes were “the worst 15 minutes I’ve ever seen.” Fulham settled for a “frustrating” 1-1 draw, while Calvin Bassey called it “a game of luck, we both had it on our side.”

Elsewhere, Everton’s win was functional rather than elegant, Aston Villa needed a lift and got one, Bournemouth were left empty-handed, Sunderland earned admiration despite defeat at the Etihad, Newcastle held on after a nervy finish, Liverpool were second best for long spells, and Manchester City’s chaotic game left Enzo Maresca saying, “Too many goals,” before admitting, “I’m always concerned, always trying to see what we can do better.” Coventry’s long wait for a Premier League win finally ended, and Frank Lampard had every reason to enjoy it.

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What Chelsea Can Take From Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen Start

Chelsea’s defensive issues under Alonso echo the early Leverkusen struggles that later turned around.

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Chelsea’s opening spell under Xabi Alonso has already prompted scrutiny, largely because the side have made games far more open than they would like. After six matches, they have conceded 12 goals, a tally better only than Crystal Palace, Coventry City and Ipswich Town in the Premier League. The figures point to a team producing excitement, but also one that is leaving too much behind the ball.

That is not unfamiliar territory for Alonso. When he arrived at Bayer Leverkusen on Oct. 5, 2022, the club were second-bottom in the Bundesliga and had made their worst start to a season in more than 40 years. His first game brought an immediate lift, a 4-0 win over Schalke, but the weeks that followed were far less comfortable. Defeats to Porto, Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig, plus draws with Wolfsburg and Atlético Madrid, meant six games had produced 14 goals conceded.

The criticism was blunt at the time. Simon Rolfes said, “We’re conceding too many goals,” while Alonso’s response was equally direct: “Too many,” was the manager’s blunt admission.

He did not abandon his ideas. Alonso shifted Leverkusen from a four-man defence to a 3-4-2-1, kept faith with the structure and argued that understanding would come with time. “We need to better control when and how we reach the ball,” he said, stressing the need for smarter risks and clearer positioning between teammates.

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That patience eventually paid off. His seventh match ended in a 5-0 win over Union Berlin, the start of a five-game winning run that reset the mood and laid the groundwork for the Bundesliga title 18 months later.

Chelsea’s own numbers show a similar balance of threat and fragility. They have scored 18 goals in Alonso’s first six games, compared with Leverkusen’s nine in the same span. Yet the concern remains the same: a side that attacks well, but has not looked solid enough.

After the 2-2 draw with Hull City, Alonso again pointed to the need to cut out a “soft” streak. He kept the message measured when speaking to club media: “It’s early days for us,” he said. “It’s one month together and in one month, we know the idea, the concepts, the mentality, but it’s too early to know it’s already built.

“It will take longer, but we need to learn from everything and from this [against Hull] as well.

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“For sure, I think it will come. At the moment, we are not having that feeling we are solid enough. With work and with games, I think it will get better.

“Overall, I think we are attacking better than we are defending. In every aspect, so we know that it’s a big topic and a theme for us.”

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The 10 Most Valuable Squads in World Football After the 2026 Summer Window

Squad values after the 2026 summer window show Real Madrid top, with City, PSG and Arsenal close behind.

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The summer transfer window has closed, and the latest squad valuations offer a clear picture of which clubs have built the most expensive collections of talent in world football.

Using Transfermarkt’s figures, the 10 most valuable squads now reflect a market shaped by major spending across Europe, with the Premier League again heavily represented among the elite.

Real Madrid sit top of the list with a squad valued at $1.7 billion. A huge share of that figure comes from Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham, whose combined value is put at $581 million. Their summer business, including Yan Diomande and Marc Cucurella, was followed by further strength added through Ibrahima Konaté, Denzel Dumfries and Bernardo Silva.

Manchester City are close behind on $1.66 billion. Their total has risen after moves for Enzo Fernández, Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Bouaddi, with the trio carrying a combined valuation of $337 million, less than what City paid to bring them in.

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Paris Saint-Germain are third at $1.58 billion, with continental success continuing to lift the value of their squad. João Neves, Vitinha, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are each valued at $116 million or more.

Arsenal are fourth on $1.55 billion, ahead of Barcelona on $1.47 billion. Lamine Yamal stands out at Barcelona, where he is worth $255.6 million on his own, alongside Raphinha, Pedri and Pau Cubarsí.

Chelsea are sixth at $1.26 billion, with Bayern Munich seventh on $1.21 billion and Michael Olise valued at $197.5 million. Liverpool follow in eighth on $1.2 billion after the late addition of Bradley Barcola.

Manchester United are ninth at $1.08 billion after their midfield overhaul, while Tottenham Hotspur complete the top 10 on $941.6 million after a particularly active summer in the market.

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