Tottenham Hotspur’s difficult start to the season took another turn on Saturday after defeat to Aston Villa left them with an unwanted statistic attached to their name.

According to Opta, Tottenham have now lost 50 of their 141 Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since it opened in April 2019. That is the same number of league defeats Arsenal have suffered at the Emirates Stadium across 382 top-flight matches since their move from Highbury in July 2006.

The numbers underline how costly home form has become for Tottenham. Across all competitions, they have won only five of their last 36 matches on home soil, and only two of those victories have come under De Zerbi’s guidance.

That figure will not have been lost on Arsenal supporters, but any satisfaction was brief. Just hours later, the reigning Premier League champions suffered their first defeat of the campaign.

At the Amex Stadium, Brighton & Hove Albion produced a dominant display to beat the Gunners 3-0, and their fans made their feelings known with the chant, “Are you Tottenham in disguise?”

Arsenal, who had begun the season in perfect form, were repeatedly opened up by Brighton’s pressing and made to look unusually vulnerable. Their defence, which had conceded only once in the Premier League before the trip to the south coast, was breached three times as the visitors endured one of their weakest performances in recent years.

What had looked like a team growing increasingly secure in the early weeks of the campaign ended with Arsenal heading back to the capital having suffered a setback that matched the frustration Tottenham were already facing.

The first midweek stretch of the season has already brought Champions League and Carabao Cup action, and the Premier League schedule now tightens again around Gameweek 4.

Sunday’s Manchester derby is the clear centrepiece, but there is plenty elsewhere to weigh up, from Chelsea and Liverpool enjoying home advantage to Arsenal facing a testing trip away from home.

Here is a revised look at how the weekend may unfold, based strictly on the evidence from recent form, results and context in the draft.

Aston Villa are tipped to edge Nottingham Forest 2-1, with both sides still searching for their first league win and Villa Park likely to favour the home team. Bournemouth and Brentford could cancel each other out in a 1-1 draw, while Chelsea are expected to make short work of Hull and win 3-0 as their attack meets a defence that has impressed but may not be able to sustain that level.

Crystal Palace are backed to beat Ipswich 2-1 after a timely lift in form, and Liverpool are forecast to defeat Fulham 3-1, with the hosts carrying momentum into the fixture. Tottenham and Everton look set for a 1-1 draw, a result that would fit the recent frustrations around Spurs and the unbeaten start made by the visitors.

Arsenal are predicted to keep their perfect start going with a narrow 1-0 win at Sunderland, while Brighton are expected to leave Coventry with a 3-1 victory. The weekend’s biggest game, Man Utd against Man City, is called as another 1-1 draw, reflecting uncertainty on both sides despite City’s winning run.

Monday closes with Leeds against Newcastle, a meeting that could finish 2-2 after both clubs have shown enough going forward to suggest another open contest.

Mauricio Pochettino has argued that Tottenham ought to be recognised as the 2016-17 Premier League champions, saying Chelsea’s title should be taken away because of rule breaches.

Before making his case, Pochettino acknowledged the reaction his view could provoke. “The Chelsea fans will be upset with me because I’m saying this,” Mauricio Pochettino admitted. He then added: “I’ve said that we should win one title, one Premier League,” Pochettino said to reporters. “We should have been awarded it. If that was true, and that happened, for sure we deserve to be champions for that year. Because we were the second best.”

Tottenham’s campaign that season was one of the strongest in the club’s Premier League history. They lost only four matches, finished on 86 points and ended well clear of Manchester City and Liverpool, who were third and fourth respectively. Harry Kane and Dele Alli were central to that push, with the pair scoring 47 goals between them as Kane collected the Golden Boot.

Chelsea finished seven points ahead on 93 and won the title in Antonio Conte’s first season in charge, after the Italian switched to a back three following a poor defeat at Arsenal.

Pochettino said Chelsea’s admitted charges changed the context of the race. “They were punished, they admitted (it), so that’s it,” Pochettino continued of the charges Chelsea admitted to. “The title should be for the team that was second. We didn’t compete with the same rules. OK, now we can say that they scored goals, they won games. But it’s completely fair to say that we didn’t compete before the start of the season with the same card.

“Maybe with the same rules, if we apply the same things, maybe we could have signed some players that would have made the team better, or scored more goals. It’s not me complaining. It’s the truth.”

He was also careful to separate the issue from Chelsea’s performance and Conte’s work, calling him a “great coach”. But he insisted that punishment matters, warning that if clubs are not properly sanctioned then rule-breaking is encouraged.

“If we were at Tottenham and broke the rules, I would admit the same and say, ‘Look, we don’t deserve the title because we broke the rules’.” he added. “It’s impossible if only some clubs play with offside and another plays with no offside. Or one plays with VAR and another plays with no VAR. No. For everyone, it needs to be the same rules, and the capacity to create the best team.”

Pochettino never won a trophy at Tottenham before his dismissal in November 2019, though he did take the club to the Champions League final. He later managed Chelsea for one season before departing, with the move unpopular among both sets of supporters. He also said Tottenham had contacted him about a possible return in the summer, but nothing happened because of his commitment to the United States men’s national team.