With the 2026-27 season still in its early stages, Liverpool and Chelsea will already be looking at the Carabao Cup as a realistic route to silverware. The competition has taken on added importance after Arsenal’s surprise defeat to League Two side Fleetwood Town on Tuesday removed one major rival from the picture.

That result has sharpened the focus on Wednesday’s fourth-round tie at Anfield, where Liverpool and Chelsea will meet knowing one of them is guaranteed to leave the competition. With the rest of the round not yet completed, the winner will move a step closer to a trophy that now looks more open than it did at the start of the campaign.

The wider history of the competition underlines that point. Aside from Newcastle United’s triumph in 2025, the Carabao Cup has been won by one of England’s “Big Six” every year since 2013. Since Leicester City’s success in 2000, only five other winners have come from outside Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

This season, however, several of those familiar contenders have already fallen away. Man Utd and Tottenham exited in the third round, while Arsenal are now out as well. Another heavyweight will go on Wednesday when Liverpool host Chelsea, and the quarterfinals will then feature no more than two of the Big Six.

Manchester City remain involved too, and their own fourth-round meeting with third-placed Brighton & Hove Albion will remove another leading threat. Even so, the shape of the draw has left both Liverpool and Chelsea with a genuine opportunity.

Of Liverpool’s four possible trophies this season, the Carabao Cup is the least glamorous alongside the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup. Yet the chance to win it is real, and Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola appears to understand that his best opportunity for silverware in his first season at Anfield may have already arrived.

There was little sunshine to be found on Matchday 8, as Storm Boelo lashed English grounds with rain and wind. For all the bad weather, only one fixture finished goalless, and the round still produced a sharp series of swings in tone, quality and consequence.

Manchester United’s latest setback stood out for all the wrong reasons. Without Bruno Fernandes, they looked short of attacking life again, while Bournemouth made the most of what they created in a 3-0 win. Elsewhere, Tottenham Hotspur earned a notable victory at Stamford Bridge after Mike Penders handed them the opening goal, with Cole Palmer adding to Chelsea’s problems by picking up two unnecessary yellow cards.

Several matches were defined more by frustration than fluency. Fulham struggled to trouble Coventry, managing just two shots on target, while Crystal Palace surrendered control against Newcastle after leading the shot count at the break. Everton were pushed back by Arsenal and rarely threatened after falling behind early. Ipswich and Nottingham Forest finished level after a match in which neither side found much rhythm, even if the visitors were able to make more of the contest than their hosts.

Brentford’s draw away to newly promoted opposition drew a blunt response from Keith Andrews and Michael Kayode, who both said, “We have to be better.” Sunderland also shared the points in a contest shaped by the conditions, with Régis Le Bris pleased enough to say, “We were Sunderland today.” At the Stadium of Light, the wind played a major role in a game where both teams completed only 73% of their passes.

There were also decisive moments at Anfield and Villa Park. Liverpool saw Brighton’s recent momentum halted as early goals changed the shape of the match, while Villa took control through Nicolas Jackson’s sharp finishing and a commanding display from Zion Suzuki, who produced six saves and 12 line-breaking passes. In another tight contest, Hull and their opponents could not be separated, and Sergej Jakirović called it “a fair result.”

The weekend’s final judgement was not about one storyline alone, but about a league round where weather, missed chances and single moments repeatedly decided the outcome.

Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.