Arsenal
Opta Midseason Forecast: Arsenal Maintain Lead After Gameweek 19
Opta’s model makes Arsenal favourites after Gameweek 19, projecting 84 points and a 78.98% chance .
The first half of the 2025–26 Premier League season closed with Arsenal holding a narrow advantage over Manchester City and Aston Villa after Gameweek 19. Several leading sides dropped points in their final fixtures before the break: Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur all failed to win, while Arsenal secured a 4–1 victory over Unai Emery’s men.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal the strongest chance of winning the title. The Gunners sit on 45 points and the model projects an end-of-season total of 84.55 points, assigning them a 78.98% probability of lifting the Premier League trophy in May. That expected points total is noted as around 84 points, the same total Liverpool posted in last season’s title-winning campaign.
Manchester City are second on 41 points with an expected finish of 76.92 points and a 16.69% chance of becoming champions. The Cityzens’ late-year form had put them back in contention, but a goalless draw with Sunderland dented momentum.
Aston Villa occupy third on 39 points; Opta projects 72.85 points for them and gives a 4.15% title probability. Villa’s earlier 11-game winning streak had raised hopes of a sustained title challenge, but the 4–1 reverse at the Emirates reset expectations. A third-place finish would be the club’s highest since 1993 if the model’s projection holds.
Beyond the top three, Opta forecasts competition for Champions League places. Liverpool are on 33 points with an expected 64.74 points and a 56.28% chance of finishing in the top four. Chelsea, on 30 points, are projected to end on 59.28 points with a 20.71% Champions League probability. Manchester United, also on 30 points, are projected to finish with 55.80 points and a 7.58% chance of finishing in the top four, a strong recovery after a 15th-place finish last season.
Newcastle, Everton, Brentford and Tottenham are all forecast in a tight cluster between roughly 52 and 55 expected points, leaving the battle for European places prone to small margins and single-match swings.
Arsenal
Saka Agrees Five-Year Deal to 2031 as Arsenal Secure Another Academy Pillar
Saka agrees a five-year deal to 2031 as Arsenal tie down another academy talent and core players 24.
Bukayo Saka has agreed a new five-year contract at Arsenal on an improved salary, keeping the 24-year-old firmly in the club’s plans and out of reach of several unnamed suitors.
Asked in November why he appeared relaxed about the situation, the Arsenal boss said: “I prefer that word, I think it is confidence,” he told assembled media. “What Bukayo has transmitted to me and the club, and Emeka [Obasi, Saka’s agent] as well, is that they want to continue to be here. “It’s a very healthy and powerful relationship. The journey that he has had at the club and what he has become is something we want to maintain. That is something that is going to leave a legacy at this club and he needs to fulfil that role.”
The Athletic reported the new deal runs until the summer of 2031. The exact figures were not disclosed, the report saying the wage will “recognise his standing” in the game.
The same report added that, should he ever become attainable, Saka is “wanted by the biggest clubs in world football.” For now, the prospect of the winger leaving the club he joined aged seven appears remote.
Arsenal have moved to lock down a group of academy graduates and key defenders in recent months. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri were tied to 2030, while William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães agreed new deals in the last seven months. Jurriën Timber is thought to be next in line for a renewal.
On the field, Saka’s form has had peaks and troughs. He teed up Arsenal’s first two goals of a 5–2 win at West Ham United on Nov. 30, 2024, taking his season total to 10 Premier League assists, but he did not register another top-flight assist until the 1–1 draw with Chelsea on Nov. 30, 2025. This season the regular penalty taker has three goals from open play and three top-flight assists, a return that Leeds United’s Brenden Aaronson can better in the Premier League.
Statistically Saka remains influential. FBref shows him fourth for xG+xA per 90 (0.60) among regulars, behind Erling Haaland, Jérémy Doku and Enzo Fernández and ahead of Hugo Ekitiké, correct as of Jan. 9, 2026.
His display against Liverpool underlined both his threat and recent frustrations, repeatedly skirting past Milos Kerkez and creating chances that teammates failed to convert. A first prolonged spell in the treatment room coincided with a dip in output, yet he has two assists in four appearances since Christmas Day. The presence of Noni Madueke should allow Arteta to manage Saka’s minutes and ease fitness concerns while adding competition.
Arsenal
Arsenal remain in the hunt for Marc Guéhi as City weigh January options
Arsenal’s renewed interest in Marc Guéhi grows as City weigh a January move after key injuries. Jan.
Arsenal have been linked again with Crystal Palace captain Marc Guéhi as Manchester City consider a January response to recent defensive injuries. Joško Gvardiol suffered a fractured shinbone that required surgery and is set to be out for months rather than weeks. Rúben Dias also picked up a muscular problem in the same match and is expected to be sidelined for between four and six weeks.
City’s increased focus on a short-term defensive signing has intensified interest in Guéhi, who has just six months remaining on his Palace contract. That attention has prompted other admirers to reassert their claims. Arsenal’s long-standing interest is reported to remain active, and the club are expected to view Guéhi as a summer option, though no timetable for a move has been confirmed.
Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner has confirmed that the club will be forced to accept a suitable bid for their captain this month. Liverpool, who nearly secured Guéhi last summer, are named as keen but appear likely to only move for the defender when he becomes a free agent in July. Atlético Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona are also said to be considering approaches in the off-season.
Mikel Arteta is seeking every edge as Arsenal pursue their first Premier League title in 22 years and has stressed the club are “actively looking” at further additions this January. “The window is there. We’re Arsenal. Now, we have to be looking at it,” he declared last month.
That said, Arsenal’s immediate need at centre back is less acute. When fit, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães are automatic starters. The club recruited Piero Hincapié and Cristhian Mosquera in the summer to provide cover and flexibility; both are comfortable playing as deputies or at fullback. Natural fullbacks Riccardo Calafiori, Ben White and Jurriën Timber also have experience of lining up through the middle, giving Arsenal depth even if they pursue Guéhi in future windows.
Arsenal
Late Martinelli Push Leaves Conor Bradley’s Knee in Doubt After Stretcher Incident
Conor Bradley may have a serious knee injury after Martinelli’s shove sparked a late brawl. Scans due
Conor Bradley was forced from the pitch on a stretcher after a late knee twist, a sequence that has left Liverpool manager Arne Slot “fearing the worst.” The incident began when Arsenal’s No. 11 dropped the ball onto the prone defender and then attempted to shove him off the field to restart play. That shove ignited a mass brawl which further delayed the match.
Players from Liverpool reacted angrily at what was described as Martinelli’s disregard for a clearly injured opponent. Bradley was later seen leaving the stadium on crutches with his left knee in a brace; there was no suggestion he had been feigning the problem.
Slot was cautious on specifics but clear on the concern. “We have to wait on the scans if it’s that bad,” Slot acknowledged. “But it doesn’t look great if Conor has the injury which we fear he might have.”
The Liverpool manager tempered criticism of the Arsenal forward. “I don’t know Gabriel Martinelli, but he comes across as a nice guy,” he said. “I’m 100% sure that if he knew what the injury might be, that he would never do that,” Slot insisted. “I think the problem for him—and it’s a problem in general in football—is that there is so much time-wasting and players pretending that they are injured in the final parts of the game and during the game, that you can sometimes be annoyed if you want to try to score a goal that you think the player is time-wasting.
“You cannot ask Martinelli to think so clear in the 94th minute.”
Martinelli posted on social media to say he had contacted Bradley. “Conor and I have messaged and I have already apologised to him,” Martinelli wrote on Instagram. “I really didn’t understand he was seriously injured in the heat of the moment. I want to say I’m deeply sorry for reacting.
“Sending Conor all my best again for a quick recovery.”
Arsenal’s manager added a character reference for his player. “Knowing Gabi, if anybody knows Gabi, it’s an incredibly lovely guy and probably he didn’t realise what happened,” the Basque boss declared. “I hope that Conor is well. I will have a word with him now to understand that, but probably he didn’t recognise what happened.”
Broadcasters reacted strongly. Sky Sports commentator Gary Neville called the action unacceptable. “I am actually fuming with Martinelli, I don’t know how the Liverpool players didn’t go over and absolutely whack him to be honest with you and take a red card. Absolutely disgraceful, that,” he seethed. Roy Keane recalled a similar personal experience. “I didn’t like it,” the former Manchester United captain said of the Martinelli incident. “It happened to me when I was badly injured and a player stood over me, and it’s not good.
