A summer dominated by Spain’s World Cup success in North America is fading fast, and the Premier League returns with the familiar flood of predictions. This time, Opta has put its numbers behind the new season, using its Power Rankings and thousands of simulations to map out the title race, the fight for Europe and the battle to avoid the drop.

At the top of the model, Arsenal stand clear of the field. Opta gives the champions a 38% chance of retaining the crown, a figure that places them ahead of Manchester City on 20.5% and Liverpool on 9.2%. Manchester United follow on 6.2%, with Aston Villa, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur all given smaller title probabilities.

The forecast also suggests a comfortable route back into the Champions League for Arsenal. Under a system where a top-five finish would be enough for qualification, the Gunners are rated at 83% to end up in that bracket. Manchester City and Liverpool are also strongly backed, while Manchester United are given a 40% chance of securing a return to Europe’s top competition.

Villa remain in the mix for Champions League football, though the model does not see them pushing for the league title. Chelsea’s prospects are built more around a Champions League return than a serious domestic challenge, despite the talk surrounding Xabi Alonso’s side. Tottenham, meanwhile, are viewed as more likely to improve than to join the title conversation, with a push for Europe framed as a realistic target after successive 17th-place finishes.

At the bottom, Opta is unconvinced by the newly promoted clubs. Hull City are rated the most likely to go down, followed by Ipswich Town and Coventry City. The model points to difficult openings for Coventry and Hull, noting that promoted teams often need a strong start to survive. In Premier League history, none of the 16 promoted teams who collected at least eight points from their first five games have gone straight back down.

Chelsea’s summer has once again been defined by transfer noise, with Enzo Fernández now the central figure in a growing story over his future. The midfielder has been linked with an exit for five months, after he publicly flirted with Real Madrid in March. That route is now closed, but a move to Manchester City, where a reunion with ex-Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca remains possible, is still being discussed.

Chelsea have reportedly set a hard deadline for their Premier League rivals: pay $162 million by Friday, Aug. 14 at 5 p.m. BST (12 p.m. ET, 9 a.m. PT) or lose the chance to sign the 25-year-old Argentinian. Whether City will meet that demand is still unclear, but Chelsea are already having to consider how they would replace him if he goes.

One option is Martín Zubimendi, whose name has surfaced among Chelsea’s targets. The link appears to stem from Alonso, who previously worked with the midfielder during a spell in charge of Real Sociedad B. Zubimendi has described Alonso as his “idol”. Even so, there are clear complications. Arsenal are not looking to sell him after signing him last summer, and his profile is very different to Fernández’s. Zubimendi is more defensive, offers less goal threat and plays with a safety-first approach, while Chelsea need more creativity alongside Moisés Caicedo.

Another candidate is Lamine Camara, who is under contract at Monaco. The club have recently appointed ex-Blues defender Filipe Luís as manager, but no special treatment is expected. Monaco want around $58 million, while Manchester United, Liverpool and Crystal Palace are also interested. The 22-year-old has recorded three goals and four assists, and has stood out for his passing range, defensive qualities and press resistance.

Chelsea are also said to have turned down the chance to sign Myles Lewis-Skelly from Arsenal. The 19-year-old, who has already won six England caps, offers versatility, carrying ability and defensive edge. He is not a direct Fernández replacement, but he would still add useful qualities if the midfielder leaves.

Netflix sport documentaries have a habit of reopening familiar debates, and a new series on José Mourinho has done exactly that. One of the clearest revelations is that, after leaving Real Madrid and before the next season began, Mourinho chose a return to Chelsea rather than taking over Manchester United, a decision also confirmed by Ferguson.

That left United to appoint David Moyes, who arrived as ‘The Chosen One’ and lasted only 10 months. Mourinho, meanwhile, went back to Chelsea and won his third Premier League title there across two seasons. He later did join United in 2016, collecting the League Cup and Europa League before his spell ended in 2018.

The question is a straightforward one: what if he had been installed before the 2013-14 campaign? Moyes inherited a squad that had already lost Paul Scholes to retirement for the second time, while United’s summer spending brought in just three players. Marouane Fellaini was the headline arrival, with Juan Mata added in January as the season slid into difficulty.

Even so, the squad was hardly barren. David De Gea was in goal, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidić still anchored the defence, and Patrice Evra and Antonio Valencia offered trusted options at full back. Up front, Robin van Persie scored 18 in all competitions, Wayne Rooney 19, Javier Hernández nine and Danny Welbeck 10.

There were also bigger possibilities. United had previously explored Cesc Fábregas, while Gareth Bale held talks with the club in 2013 before moving to Real Madrid. Mourinho’s reputation may well have made those conversations more persuasive.

What is beyond dispute is how badly Moyes’ United fared in the major fixtures. They won only one of 10 league matches against the traditional ‘Big Six’, finished seventh, and suffered heavy defeats, including two 3-0 losses at Old Trafford to Liverpool and Manchester City.

Mourinho’s strengths lay elsewhere. He was known for structure, control and results against elite opposition, and Chelsea’s own 2013-14 record underlined the contrast. They finished third, took 18 more points than United, conceded only 27 league goals, and advanced further in both the Champions League and FA Cup.

United may still have fallen short of silverware, but with Mourinho in charge, the outlook would almost certainly have been stronger, and Champions League qualification far more likely.