Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

Manchester City’s flawless Premier League run came to an abrupt halt on Saturday, with a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa at Villa Park. Nicolas Jackson’s brace ultimately decided the match, even though City spent long spells on the front foot and created enough chances to avoid defeat.

The visitors were bright before the interval and frequently forced Zion Suzuki into sharp saves, while two penalty appeals were waved away. Iliman Ndiaye was the most dangerous outlet, twice threatening from distance and going close when a fierce effort struck the outside of the post.

After the restart, City finally found a breakthrough. Erling Haaland rose to meet Ndiaye’s delivery and powered in the equaliser, seemingly giving the visitors the momentum they needed. But the response did not last. Villa regained the lead when Gianluigi Donnarumma failed to keep out Jackson’s driven strike, and City were unable to recover despite sustained pressure.

There were positives in the performance, particularly in Ndiaye’s work from wide areas. His acceleration and direct running repeatedly troubled Villa, and his contribution to the goal underlined his influence. Haaland, meanwhile, offered little beyond the header, though that proved enough to add to his tally.

At the other end, Marc Guéhi endured another difficult outing after a costly mistake helped Villa seize the initiative. Donnarumma, too, came under scrutiny after Jackson’s second goal, with the shot appearing central enough to be dealt with. Villa’s goalkeeper Suzuki, by contrast, was outstanding and repeatedly denied City when they seemed poised to score.

The result leaves City with work to do after their unbeaten start was ended, and it also opens the door for Arsenal to draw level at the top of the table.

The Premier League’s Key Match Incidents Panel has ruled that Ryan Gravenberch’s red card against Manchester City was correctly given earlier this month.

At the moment of the dismissal, the match was level at 0-0. City then made the extra man count almost immediately, with Erling Haaland putting them ahead three minutes later. By the time Liverpool had lost the Dutch midfielder, City had scored three times inside 16 minutes.

There was frustration from a Liverpool point of view, however, because the first yellow card shown to Gravenberch was viewed as severe. It was also described by Andoni Iraola as “not a yellow”.

“[Elliot] Anderson carries on a couple of steps [before falling]. [The referee] wasn’t even going to give a foul. I’ve no idea why he gives a yellow card. We have like nine players behind the ball,” the frustrated Liverpool manager told Sky Sports after the final whistle.

According to BBC Sport, the panel considered both yellow cards when reviewing the dismissal, as required under protocol. The vote was 4:1 in support of the officials. The single dissenting view was that the foul on Anderson should not have produced the first booking. Once that yellow had been awarded, though, the panel was unanimous in backing the VAR decision not to intervene after the second caution brought about the red.

The decision carries no practical punishment beyond confirming the officials were correct. Gravenberch has already completed the one-match suspension attached to the red, missing last weekend’s trip to Brentford. Liverpool won that game without him, helped by two Brentford red cards after falling behind in the first half.

Had the panel reached the opposite conclusion, the only outcome would have been an acknowledgement of the error and a promise to improve. Match officials could also have been left out of duty for a week. That did not happen here.