Championship
Wrexham’s Promotion Path: What the Red Dragons Must Do
Wrexham have eight Championship matches left; automatic promotion unlikely, playoffs more realistic.
Wrexham continue to defy expectations in the Championship, but the task of reaching the Premier League remains steep. Automatic promotion requires finishing in the top two and, with Coventry City appearing increasingly secure at the summit, Wrexham sit ten points behind second-placed Middlesbrough. Closing that gap would demand an almost flawless run.
The automatic route is therefore improbable. The more credible aim for Phil Parkinson’s squad is the playoffs. The teams finishing third to sixth in the second tier enter a knockout route consisting of a two-legged semi final and a final at Wembley to determine the third promoted club.
Current standings among the top dozen underline the challenge. Coventry City top the table on 77 points; Middlesbrough are second on 70. Ipswich Town and Millwall occupy the next spots on 68 each, while Hull City sit on 63. Southampton and Wrexham are both on 60 points, but Southampton hold the superior goal difference.
Wrexham were close to holding sixth place earlier in the week but lost that position when Southampton moved ahead. Southampton have the goal differential advantage to push Phil Parkinson’s to seventh. Derby County, Watford and Birmingham City are also chasing the same places and keep the race congested.
Fixture congestion does not help. Wrexham have eight Championship matches remaining following a setback at Watford. Only three of those games will be at the Racecourse Ground; five are away fixtures. The schedule includes matches against fellow hopefuls and difficult opponents, with key late fixtures against Coventry City and Middlesbrough.
Remaining fixtures
March 21: Sheffield United (A)
April 3: West Bromwich Albion (A)
April 6: Southampton (H)
April 11: Birmingham City (A)
April 18: Stoke City (H)
April 21: Oxford United (A)
April 25: Coventry City (A)
May 2: Middlesbrough (H)
There is no magic points tally that secures a place in the Championship playoffs, but recent seasons suggest three or four more victories would likely be enough. Last term the sixth-placed side finished on 68 points, the lowest across the past five seasons, though 70 points is often required by those who make the playoffs.
Championship
Reynolds: Wrexham Should Set Sights on the Premier League
Ryan Reynolds says Wrexham should aim for the Premier League and praises Phil Parkinson’s work. More
Ryan Reynolds, co-owner of Wrexham, has publicly endorsed the club’s aspirations to reach the Premier League, arguing that it would be “foolish not to aim” for the top flight. Speaking ahead of the Welsh derby, a match he and Mac commentated, Reynolds reflected on the rapid ascent of the club and the long-term target.
On Sky Sports he said: “You have high expectations in long term, but our goal was to listen and learn and at that point, you don’t know what you’re saying, if that’s just going to sound preposterous or naive.” He added: “But our goal was always the Premier League. I mean, we’d be foolish to not aim for that. I didn’t think we would be here this quickly; however, sometimes the ball bounced our way. Other times, this team’s grit, determination and character is what really kind of pushed them across, even more so than just skill.”
After securing an automatic bid to the Championship for the 2025–26 season, Wrexham were widely dismissed as genuine challengers in England’s second tier, let alone contenders for a top-six finish. The Red Dragons, strengthened by new arrivals over the summer, endured a difficult start but gradually stabilised and produced a respectable return in their first Championship campaign in 43 years.
With nine games remaining, Phil Parkinson’s side sit sixth, occupying the final playoff place and holding a narrow three-point cushion over seventh-place Southampton. The position leaves little margin for error as the season approaches its conclusion.
Reynolds has signalled he will follow the promotion push closely while leaving tactical and selection matters to the club’s coaching staff. “Phil Parkinson has done a phenomenal job, and I think the best thing we’ve done as co-chairmen has been to leave the football decisions to the people who understand the game better than we will ever understand it, and that’s sort of been the secret sauce,” he said.
Reflecting on his involvement with the club, the 49-year-old described the experience as singularly fulfilling. “It’s been, easily for me, I’ll say, the most rewarding professional experience of my entire life, and emotional, too,” Reynolds revealed on commentary during the club’s 2–0 win over Swansea City on Friday.
Championship
Opta model: Wrexham’s path to the Championship playoffs and promotion odds
Opta gives Wrexham a 20.86% shot at the playoffs; promotion still relies on results down the run-in.
Wrexham remain in the hunt for a third straight promotion after rising from a poor start in the Championship, but the path to the Premier League runs through the playoffs. The oldest club in Wales have found more consistent form since a difficult opening to the season, yet dropped points in their last two league matches against Millwall and Bristol City have checked their momentum.
Opta’s supercomputer supplies a clear snapshot of the title race and the contest for the top six. Coventry sit top of the table on 62 points with Middlesbrough one point behind on 61. The model predicts Coventry will finish on 85.43 expected points with a 47.12% chance of the title, while Middlesbrough are on 84.76 expected points and a 34.32% title probability. With totals so close, the margin for error in the final three months is minimal.
In the race for the playoffs, Opta projects the following outcomes. Ipswich Town (54 current points) are expected to reach 80.53 points with a 63.22% playoff probability. Millwall (56) are forecast to reach 77.27 points and hold a 76.96% chance. Hull City (54) are predicted to finish on 76.17 points with a 75.86% playoff likelihood. Southampton (46) are projected at 68.07 expected points and a 26.42% chance of making the top six.
Derby County (48) and Wrexham (48) are modelled to finish close together on around 67 points: Derby on 67.82 expected points with a 24.60% playoff probability and Wrexham on 67.41 expected points with a 20.86% chance. Preston (48) are at 66.60 expected points and 15.76% probability, while Bristol City (47) sit at 65.73 expected points and a 12.22% chance.
Teams finishing third to sixth contest the playoffs, with the winner joining the top two in promotion to the Premier League. Opta currently backs Ipswich Town, Millwall, Hull City and Southampton as the four sides most likely to contest the playoff places. For Wrexham, the model shows they are close but marginally outside the projected top six, leaving their dream of reaching the Premier League dependent on results in the run-in.
Championship
How a Six-Team Playoff Proposal Could Alter Wrexham’s Promotion Path
EFL clubs will vote on expanding Championship playoffs to six teams; implications for Wrexham. Next.
EFL clubs are due to vote on a proposal that would expand the Championship playoffs from four to six teams, a change that would alter the route to the Premier League and could benefit Wrexham. According to The Guardian, 72 EFL clubs are invited to the meeting, which will unfold on Mar. 5, to cast their votes about potentially allowing two more teams—those that finish in seventh and eighth—to participate in the Championship playoffs.
The new playoff structure would take effect next season if a simple majority of the 72 clubs and the 24 Championship sides vote to instate the changes approved by the EFL board. Reported options lean towards a model similar to the National League. Under that format the clubs finishing third and fourth would advance directly to the semi-finals. Teams finishing fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth would contest one-off knockout ties to determine the remaining semi-finalists.
In that scenario the fifth-placed team would play the eighth-placed team, while the sixth-place team would match up with the seventh-placed team. The higher-ranked club would have the advantage of hosting the single-leg tie. The playoffs would then continue as normal, with the semi-finals played across two legs and the winners progressing to the final at Wembley Stadium.
For Wrexham the proposal matters because the club’s long-term aim is Premier League football after a rapid rise since 2021. In their first Championship campaign in 43 years, the Red Dragons have a chance to secure a record-fourth consecutive promotion following the takeover by co-owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney in 2021. Phil Parkinson’s men currently sit sixth in the standings through 31 games, keeping the playoffs within reach.
If Wrexham drop out of the top six by the end of 2025–26 or fail in the playoffs, their stay in the Championship would be extended for at least another season. The vote on Mar. 5 could change the pathway those ambitions follow.
