Analytics & Stats
Opta’s Matchday 5 Forecast: Who the Data Favour to Score
Opta’s player-by-player predictions identify the likeliest Premier League scorers for Matchday 5. GW
“The ball is round.” That aphorism sits at odds with the elaborate statistical models now applied to football. Opta has compiled a player-by-player prediction hub for the upcoming round of Premier League fixtures, estimating everything from shots and bookings to the central question: who is most likely to score. Only senior players likely to start have been included.
The model flags Mohamed Salah as the single most likely scorer for Liverpool against Everton (0.65). Salah’s Merseyside record is highlighted in the data: eight goals from 13 derbies, a haul only four players in the 131-year history of the fixture can better. Hugo Ekitiké (0.61) and Alexander Isak (0.60) follow close behind in the same Liverpool fixture; Isak was given his first 60 minutes of the season on Wednesday, so Ekitiké could yet be preferred.
Everton’s predicted top threat is Beto. David Moyes has not seen one of his Everton players score in a Premier League fixture at Anfield since Jermaine Beckford nabbed one in January 2011.
Across the weekend the data point to Danny Welbeck (0.37) and Georginio Rutter (0.30) as Brighton’s most likely scorers against Tottenham, while Richarlison (0.29) and Randal Kolo Muani (0.24) are the main candidates for Spurs.
Opta’s rankings also single out Chris Wood (0.40) for Nottingham Forest, noting his previous return of 49 Premier League goals in 144 appearances for the Clarets. Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.41) has already found the net in three different competitions this season and tops Crystal Palace’s list.
At Old Trafford the computer favours Benjamin Šeško (0.37) as the likeliest scorer, with Cole Palmer (0.35) and João Pedro (0.34) among Chelsea’s leading probabilities. As Ruben Amorim lamented: “We need to be more clinical.”
Finally, Erling Haaland leads the predictions for Manchester City (0.62), the model noting his 12 goals in seven outings for club and country, while Viktor Gyökeres (0.58) is Arsenal’s top projected scorer. The hub offers a statistical guide to Matchday 5 without claiming certainty, only probabilities.
Analytics & Stats
United’s Transfer Market Failures Exposed by Fresh Study
A new study shows Manchester United have lost $452 million on signings over five years.
Manchester United’s difficulties on the pitch have been well documented, but a new statistical study has underlined a separate problem: a transfer strategy that has drained value at an alarming rate.
The CIES Football Observatory has ranked clubs around the world by the “appreciation or depreciation in value of non-academy players signed over the past five years.” The method combines fees paid and received for players who have left, while current players are measured against their present market value. Only clubs with spending and income above $56 million since 2022 were included, with add-ons counted whether or not they have already been paid.
On that basis, United sit as the European club to lose the most on signings over the past five years. Their total depreciation stands at $452 million, a figure surpassed only by Al Hilal (-$560 million) across the global list.
Of United’s overall loss, $208 million relates to players who have already left on permanent deals, including Sancho, Højlund and Antony. A further $244.5 million has been lost on players still at the club. That total is far above any other European side.
Tottenham Hotspur are the nearest continental comparison, having lost $210 million, less than half of United’s figure. By contrast, local rivals Manchester City are among the biggest winners, ranking fifth with almost $500 million added in value over the same period.
Eintracht Frankfurt (+$588 million), Real Madrid (+$587 million), Paris Saint-Germain (+$547 million) and Benfica (+$545 million) sit above City. Chelsea also post a positive return at $200 million, while Arsenal (+$123 million) and Liverpool (+$14.5 million) have seen their signings increase in value overall.
United, however, have not dramatically altered course. Their spending has become less erratic over the last two seasons, but they still spent more than $400 million on new arrivals, and none apart from the cost-effective Senne Lammens have yet justified their price tag.
Their approach of strengthening one area at a time has also hurt results and, in turn, the value of the current squad. They focused on attack with Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha in 2025, then turned to midfield last summer with Youri Tielemans, Andrey Santos and Carlos Baleba. The defence, presumably, will be next.
Analytics & Stats
Matchday 7: control, chaos and a few hard truths across the Premier League
Matchday 7 brought heavy defeats, narrow wins and blunt verdicts across a demanding Premier League weekend.
Matchday 7 delivered a broad sweep of extremes, from disciplined control to outright collapse, and plenty in between. While the off-field uncertainty surrounding Manchester City continues, the weekend’s football offered the clearest evidence available: some teams are settling into strong rhythms, while others are still fighting themselves as much as the opponent.
Sunderland’s afternoon unravelled early, with Kevin Danso’s 17th-minute red card arriving after the damage had already begun. Nordi Mukiele did not soften the assessment, saying: “If I have to be honest with you, we are not good,” before adding, “Maybe because we became arrogant, maybe. This is what I think.” Pierre Sage’s verdict was equally blunt: “My feeling after the game is shame.”
Fulham’s win over Hull City was one of the most one-sided matches of the round despite the narrow scoreline. Sergej Jakirović was candid in defeat: “It’s easy to analyze this game,” he said. “We were out of everything.” He added, “It was men against boys.”
Newcastle United’s meeting with Aston Villa exposed the contrast between structure and disorder. Villa looked composed throughout, while Newcastle were left improvising and chasing. Matthias Jaissle’s conclusion was short and sharp: “We were not smart enough.”
Coventry City left Tottenham with nothing after failing to make the most of a promising opening spell. Frank Lampard’s side were unable to turn early control into points, despite a fast finish.
Everton’s goalless first half was summed up by David Moyes, who said Harrison Armstrong’s challenge on Josh Acheampong was “the best part” of it. That aside, the second half brought cheap concessions and only two shots from Everton.
Elsewhere, Arsenal again needed a slow-burning route to victory at the City Ground, while Nottingham Forest produced an imposing display for long periods without finding the composure to finish the job. Forest’s frustration was underlined by the fact they did not score at home for more than eight hours of football.
There were also positives for Bournemouth, who overwhelmed Sunderland in every measurable sense, and for Chelsea, who earned a result in ugly conditions. Xabi Alonso said, “Today was not just about playing nice football,” before adding, “We needed a result like this,” after Chelsea recorded their first Premier League clean sheet at the 24th attempt.
Analytics & Stats
Iraola Gives Szoboszlai Update as Frimpong Faces Layoff
Iraola eased fears over Szoboszlai, but Frimpong’s recovery will stretch beyond the break.
Andoni Iraola has offered a more measured assessment of Dominik Szoboszlai’s latest setback, while also confirming that Jeremie Frimpong will not be back until after the November international break.
Szoboszlai was forced off after around half an hour after the thigh problem that had already ruled him out of Liverpool’s previous two matches flared up again. Iraola had initially feared the midfielder could be missing “for some time”, but his latest comments were more encouraging. A return for Tuesday’s Champions League meeting with Villarreal is not possible, yet the manager stressed that the injury has not been made worse.
“It’s not a new injury, it’s in the same place as last week, he has not worsened the injury, but we have to be a bit more patient until he recovers fully,” Iraola warned.
“It is not like we now have to wait a lot of time to come back.”
Frimpong’s situation is less straightforward. The fullback played only six minutes against Brentford, going off shortly after his halftime introduction after previously being rested following the midweek trip to Austria.
“Jeremie has a new muscle injury and we will have to wait until he recovers,” Iraola reflected. “It’s going to be difficult I think before the international break.”
With fixtures coming thick and fast, Iraola said he will need the full squad at his disposal and may continue to rotate heavily. He pointed to the win over LASK as an example of how changes can still produce a strong result, and suggested he is weighing up further alterations for Villarreal.
“I am thinking of putting the best starting XI that I can against Villarreal,” he told assembled media. “But maybe it is not the one that you are thinking, because some players are not fresh enough.
“Probably it is better if someone is more fresh to start but I am analyzing the game, how can I put a good starting XI and think in the second half, how can we affect [the game] with the changes?”
The background to those selection calls is clear in the fatigue data supplied by Simon Brundish. Alisson, Florian Wirtz, Jérémy Jacquet, Ronald Araújo and Alexander Isak all feature among the players monitored, with the Fatigue Index described as a scale from 0-100, and anything above 65 placed in the red zone. Brundish says the model combines nine different statistics linked to previous injuries, together with each player’s own record, to provide a loose guide to those most at risk of breaking down.
