Tottenham Hotspur’s 2–1 victory at Villa Park on Sunday shifted the look of the relegation scrap as the 2025/26 campaign nears its end. A day earlier West Ham suffered a 3–0 defeat to Brentford, and the two results combined to reverse the positions of the clubs that had occupied 17th and 18th heading into Gameweek 35.

Before those results, West Ham held the edge over Roberto De Zerbi’s men. After Tottenham’s win at Aston Villa, Spurs moved above the Hammers. With only three matches remaining, Opta’s supercomputer offers a clear set of probabilities for the final run-in:

15. Leeds United — Current Points 43, Expected Points 46.72, Relegation Chances 0.10%
16. Nottingham Forest — Current Points 39, Expected Points 44.12, Relegation Chances 2.29%
17. Tottenham — Current Points 37, Expected Points 40.90, Relegation Chances 22.48%
18. West Ham — Current Points 36, Expected Points 39.22, Relegation Chances 75.09%
19. Burnley — Current Points 20, Expected Points 22.73, Relegation Chances 100.00%
20. Wolves — Current Points 18, Expected Points 21.02, Relegation Chances 100.00%

Leeds United strengthened their position with a 3–1 victory over Burnley on Friday. The three points moved Daniel Farke’s side to 14th, seven points clear of the drop zone. Opta’s model still projects the Whites to finish a place lower than they stand now, but that margin provides breathing space.

Nottingham Forest must wait until Monday’s meeting with Chelsea. Even a single point at Stamford Bridge would take the Tricky Trees to 40 points, and the supercomputer backs Vítor Pereira’s men to indeed remain safe, assigning them a 2.29% chance of relegation.

For Tottenham, consecutive league wins have produced a small cushion in 17th, but the model gives them a 22.48% probability of dropping out of the division for the first time since 1977. With three games left, the permutations are tight and every result will materially reshape those projections.

Leeds United’s victory over Burnley has all but secured their safety and, combined with Nottingham Forest’s improved displays since Vitor Pereira took charge, has left Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United to contest survival over the last three weeks of the season.

Tottenham’s 2–1 win over Aston Villa was decisive. The result lifted Roberto De Zerbi’s Lilywhites above their London rivals and out of the relegation places. West Ham’s momentum stalled at Brentford at the weekend, which opened the door for Spurs to leapfrog the Hammers.

That sequence is remarkable given the recent context. Spurs finished 17th last season and the Hammers obviously weren’t going anywhere with Graham Potter in charge, so few foreseen an existential scrap between the pair at this stage.

The remaining fixtures are straightforward and unforgiving. A favourable result for Arsenal in east London on the weekend of Arsenal v West Ham would alter the dynamic for West Ham and Tottenham. As the draft noted, “Victory for Mikel Arteta’s side in east London would greatly aid their survival bid, especially as they’re hosting a Leeds United team that may be taking their foot off the gas in May, given that they’re pretty much safe.” A West Ham win could, conversely, ease Manchester City’s path to the title while making life harder for Spurs.

After the Arsenal meeting, Spurs face Chelsea in midweek following Chelsea’s FA Cup final with Manchester City. That fixture will revive memories of the old Battle of the Bridge when late drama reshaped a title race.

League positions and remaining fixtures

Tottenham (17th, 37 points)
Leeds (H) – May 11
Chelsea (A) – May 19
Everton (H) – May 24

West Ham (18th, 36 points)
Arsenal (H) – May 10
Newcastle (A) – May 17
Leeds (H) – May 24

Sir Alex Ferguson was taken to hospital from Old Trafford on Sunday before Manchester United’s Premier League match against Liverpool. The former manager had been meeting guests at the stadium, including cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra, who posted a photograph with Ferguson on social media.

Malhotra wrote on X: “A privilege, honour and dream come true to be invited to spend some quality time with Sir Alex Ferguson ahead of the game against Liverpool today at Old Trafford.” It is not clear how soon after that meeting Ferguson was transported to hospital; he did not attend the game.

Ferguson missed Manchester United’s chaotic 3–2 victory, a match decided by Kobbie Mainoo’s 77th-minute strike. Mainoo celebrated a recent contract extension after scoring the match-winner.

Manchester United have yet to issue a formal statement on Ferguson’s condition. The Athletic reported the club described the situation as “not a medical emergency.” BBC Sport echoed that line and said club officials are “optimistic” Ferguson will soon be “fit enough” to return home.

Ferguson is widely regarded as the greatest manager in Premier League history. He guided Manchester United to 13 Premier League titles during a 27-year tenure and led the club to two Champions League triumphs. The 1998–99 season produced a treble of Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League titles, a feat not repeated by an English club until Manchester City in 2023. Pep Guardiola and Manchester City currently hold six Premier League titles.

Some observers noted past health concerns. In 2018 Ferguson suffered a brain hemorrhage that required emergency surgery. He recalled that episode in his documentary Sir Alex Ferguson: Never Give In, and said, “All of my life I have appreciated the NHS, none more so with that experience, they were fantastic. And I owe it to them really.”