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CIES Model Names Predicted Champions Across Europe’s Top 15 Leagues for 2025-26

CIES predictions list winners for Europe’s top 15 leagues in 2025-26, showing wide probability spread.

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The CIES Football Observatory has applied a statistical model that combines sporting, economic and demographic variables to forecast the winners of Europe’s top 15 divisions for the 2025-26 season. The study focuses on competitions ranked by UEFA coefficient, excluding Norway’s Eliteserien, which began in March.

England’s Premier League remains the continent’s most prominent competition in the dataset. The model gives Liverpool a 28.9% chance to defend their title, with Arsenal forecast as the principal challengers at 18.8%. That 28.9% figure is the third lowest probability among the top 15 leagues in the analysis.

Italy’s Serie A proved difficult to call. Napoli arrive as reigning champions, but Inter are tipped to take the crown, assigned a 25.6% probability despite a change of management over the summer.

In Spain, the CIES model favours Real Madrid to reclaim La Liga. Barcelona, who won the title last season, are given 29.6% compared to Real Madrid’s 40.6%. The report notes the arrival of Xabi Alonso as a factor that could help Los Blancos recover from an underwhelming 2024-25 campaign.

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Germany and France appear more predictable. Bayern Munich are projected to win the Bundesliga with a 61.4% chance, while Paris Saint-Germain are heavily favoured in Ligue 1 with a 73.0% probability. The study points out PSG have won 11 of the last 13 French first division titles and that only Red Star Belgrade in Serbia registers a higher single-league percentage in the analysis.

Elsewhere, Feyenoord are backed to reclaim the Dutch title with 28.6%, overturning PSV Eindhoven’s recent run. Club Brugge are expected to surpass Union Saint-Gilloise in Belgium with a 36.3% chance. Sporting CP, Galatasaray, Slavia Prague, Olympiacos, Copenhagen and Basel are each tipped to repeat last season’s triumphs. The model also predicts Legia Warsaw will usurp Lech Poznań in Poland and that RB Salzburg will overthrow Sturm Graz in Austria.

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Analytics & Stats

Aufhauser Compares Šeško’s Ceiling to Haaland and Outlines Development Path

Former RB Salzburg coach Rene Aufhauser says Benjamin Sesko has the potential to reach elite levels.

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René Aufhauser, who worked in the youth set-up at RB Salzburg, has suggested Benjamin Šeško can develop into a truly elite striker. Aufhauser observed the forward after Šeško returned from a formative loan at FC Liefering to join Salzburg’s senior side in 2021. At that time Aufhauser had been shifted to the club’s youth team but remained close enough to witness Šeško’s progress, a player Manchester United splashed £73.7 million ($100 million) on this summer .

Aufhauser did not hold back in his assessment. “Erling Haaland, I will rate him 10 out of 10,” Aufhauser gushed, as quoted by Sky Sports . “I think Erling is [an] outstanding striker, and Benji, I think at the moment, maybe he’s a nine, nine and a half out of 10. And he has also potential. He will develop in the next one and two years, I’m sure.

“Erling reached his mark after his transfer from [Borussia] Dortmund to Man City and we will see. I am quite sure Benji will reach this mark after one or two years. But of course, Erling is the top. He has 10 out of 10 from me.”

The comparison is striking but the numbers underline the gap that currently exists. Šeško scored 29 goals in 79 appearances for Salzburg before moving on, and later produced 39 goals in 87 games for RB Leipzig. The coach’s projection is forward-looking: he rates Haaland as the benchmark and places Šeško close behind with room to grow.

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Aufhauser’s view frames Šeško as a player with clear potential rather than an established equal to Haaland. The coach expects noticeable development over the next one to two years, with the possibility that Šeško could approach the standards set by Haaland after further progression.

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Owen hits back on X with statistical rebuttal to Rooney comparison

Owen furiously responded on X, defending his teenage goalscoring record and listing statistics post.

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Michael Owen has publicly rejected a social media comparison between himself and Wayne Rooney, posting a detailed numerical response on X. The former striker defended his early career record and challenged any suggestion that Rooney was the superior youngster.

Owen set out specific figures in the comment thread, writing: “At 17, I scored 18 PL goals (winning the Golden Boot), Wazza scored six. At 18, I again scored 18 goals (again winning the Golden Boot and coming fourth in the Ballon d’Or), Wazza scored nine,” Owen replied on X. “In our opening seven seasons, Wazza didn’t outscore me once (117 goals vs. 80). In which time I became the second youngest Ballon d’Or winner ever.

At 17 I scored 18 PL goals (winning the Golden Boot), Wazza scored 6. At 18 I again scored 18 goals (again winning the Golden Boot and coming 4th in The Ballon d’Or), Wazza scored 9. In our opening 7 seasons, Wazza didn’t outscore me once (117 goals v 80). In which time I became…

“Injuries hindered me from then on while he sustained his level. Therefore, he’ll go down as a better player than me. But, at 17, please……”

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The exchange underlines two clear threads from the draft: Owen emphasised his precocious goalscoring output, and he acknowledged that injuries limited his later career while Rooney maintained consistency. The draft notes Owen remains the last English player to win the Ballon d’Or, having scooped the prize in 2001. It also contrasts career Premier League totals: Owen finished with 150 strikes in 326 matches, while Rooney produced 208 goals but required 491 games to reach that number.

The debate revolves around raw early numbers and subsequent career trajectories. Owen used the platform to assert the superiority of his teenage output, while the broader picture includes Rooney’s greater longevity and a playing style described in the draft as likely to resonate with a larger percentage of English supporters.

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Analytics & Stats

How Premier League Clubs Fared in the 2025 Summer Window: A Ranked Review

A club-by-club assessment of the Premier League summer window: spending, sales and squad impact. ’25

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The Premier League’s summer market delivered heavy spending and mixed results. This review ranks clubs by how their windows reshaped squads and balance sheets, using only the transactions and outcomes reported.

At the lower end, Fulham operated on a tight budget and signed backup goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte before deadline day. Late additions Kevin, Samuel Chukwueze and Jonah Kusi-Asare bolstered the forward line, but the window remains underwhelming for Marco Silva’s side. Crystal Palace lost Eberechi Eze, missed a £35 million fee for Marc Guéhi and blocked his move to Liverpool, with Guéhi potentially leaving for free next summer. Yéremy Pino was one of the few exciting arrivals for Palace.

West Ham and Wolverhampton each spent over £100 million but their incomings have yet to impress. West Ham lost Mohammed Kudus, while Wolves saw Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri depart; Jørgen Strand Larsen stayed at Molineux. Aston Villa spent the least of any club yet retained key players and added Harvey Elliott, Jadon Sancho and Evann Guessand. Burnley and Leeds favoured quantity over marquee signings, prioritising depth at affordable prices after promotion.

Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth replaced major talents and reinvested well. Brentford negotiated excellent fees for Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo, Bournemouth profited from defensive sales, and the trio should maintain standards despite changes and Brentford coping without Thomas Frank.

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Mid-table movers included Nottingham Forest, who kept Morgan Gibbs-White and Murillo and added four from Botafogo alongside Dan Ndoye, James McAtee and Douglas Luiz. Sunderland spent just over £180 million and added Granit Xhaka, Nordi Mukiele, Lutsharel Geertruida, Habib Diarra and Brian Brobbey.

Big-spending clubs made headline signings. Newcastle secured a record £125 million fee for Alexander Isak, signed Yoane Wissa and Nick Woltemade, and added Anthony Elanga and Malick Thiaw while retaining Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães and Anthony Gordon. Everton’s window featured Jack Grealish, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and several young additions including Thierno Barry. Manchester United bolstered the attack with Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Šeško while offloading Alejandro Garnacho, Jadon Sancho, Antony and Marcus Rashford.

Tottenham refreshed across the pitch with the additions of Mohammed Kudus, Xavi Simons, João Palhinha (loan), Randal Kolo Muani (loan), Kevin Danso and Mathys Tel, while Son Heung-min departed. Manchester City replaced older figures with youth, signing Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki (injured), Gianluigi Donnarumma and James Trafford and recouping fees for McAtee, Yan Couto and Máximo Perrone.

Chelsea spent almost £300 million but achieved a positive net spend, prioritising youth with João Pedro, Jamie Gittens, Alejandro Garancho, Jorrel Hato and Esêvão. Arsenal recorded the highest net spend after investing £267 million while receiving just £9 million in sales; key arrivals included Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Christian Nørgaard, Martín Zubimendi and late arrival Piero Hincapié.

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Liverpool led Premier League outlay with £446.5 million. They signed Alexander Isak (Premier League record fee), Florian Wirtz (division record at £116 million), Hugo Ekitiké, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, Giorgi Mamardashvili and Giovanni Leoni, and recouped almost half the spend by selling Luis Díaz and Darwin Núñez. A late collapse of the Marc Guéhi transfer was the only notable disappointment in an otherwise aggressive window for the Reds.

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