Draws all around mean it’s as you were in the fight for Premier League survival, although two clubs will be particularly content with their weekend’s work. West Ham once again fought admirably to secure a result against the title-chasing Manchester City, while Tottenham Hotspur reminded their supporters what the concept of hope feels like.

Tottenham sit on 30 points, Leeds on 32, Nottingham Forest on 29 and West Ham on 29. For Spurs, momentum from a point at Liverpool arrives ahead of a crucial run. Nottingham Forest’s visit to north London next Sunday is a bona fide relegation six-pointer. The second leg of Spurs’ Champions League round of 16 tie with Atlético Madrid arrives before Forest’s visit, but their main goal on Wednesday night, given that they’re 5–2 down, must be ensuring that everyone escapes the contest unscathed. They were without as many as 13 players at Anfield.

Spurs begin April away at Sunderland. Brighton & Hove Albion visit N17 the following week before Tudor’s men take on resurgent bottom dwellers Wolverhampton Wanderers. May begins with a trip to Villa Park.

Leeds, so improved since Christmas, have been dragged back into the dogfight by a five-game winless run in the top flight. They are at home to surprise European hopefuls Brentford next Saturday night. Upcoming home games against Wolves and Burnley present Daniel Farke’s side with a great opportunity to secure six points. Leeds also travel to Manchester United and mid-table Bournemouth in April.

West Ham will take confidence from their recent showing against Manchester City and next head to Aston Villa. Nottingham Forest travel to Tottenham and will see that match as a timely chance to recover points in the battle to avoid the drop.

The scrap looks set to run to the wire, with four teams scrapping to avoid one fatal position. Richarlison, Everton’s savior four years ago, isn’t going to let the Lilywhites succumb to a humiliating relegation, their first in almost 50 years.

The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.

Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.

Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:

– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%

Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.

The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.

An independent FA commission has imposed a larger sanction on Chelsea than on West Ham United following the mass brawl in the January Premier League derby. Both clubs were found guilty of “failing to ensure its players didn’t behave in an improper and/or provocative and/or violent way at this time”, but Chelsea’s record of prior breaches increased their penalty.

The confrontation followed a dramatic late sequence in which the visitors surrendered a 2–0 lead and trailed 3–2 entering stoppage time. With only minutes remaining, Adama Traoré battled with Marc Cucurella for a corner and the situation escalated. Taylor booked Pedro and Traoré before a consultation with the pitch-side monitor led to Todibo’s dismissal.

Both Chelsea and West Ham accepted the FA’s charge early and saw their provisional fines each reduced by £75,000. The independent regulatory commission which ruled on the punishment did not accept the framing of Chelsea as victims. “This was a typical case where both sides claim that without the actions of the other, the incident would not have occurred,” the report read.

The report singled out Cucurella by name. “It was not accepted that Mr. Cucurella was wholly without fault,” the report found. “He was aware of his actions after conceding the corner kick and returning to his feet. He sought to invite a reaction from Mr. Traoré.” The document also noted crowd-related behaviour by Chelsea players. “Furthermore, the Commission noted that three of the Chelsea players were in some way seeking to incite the crowd during and towards the end of the incident. There is no justification for this behaviour, irrespective of what had happened during the course of the game or within the mass confrontation itself.”

West Ham’s culpability centred on Traoré and Todibo, but the decisive factor in the relative size of the fines was past discipline. This was Chelsea’s sixth sanction in the last five seasons and their third this term alone. West Ham had committed three prior offences since the summer of 2021. The report also name-checked the mischievous Marc Cucurella.

The club record of previous fines listed in the commission’s material included: Aug. 28, 2021 Liverpool (A) £25,000; Oct. 6, 2024 Nottingham Forest (H) £40,000; Dec. 30, 2024 Ipswich (A) £40,000; Dec. 27, 2025 Aston Villa (H) £150,000; Jan. 7, 2026 Fulham (A) £20,000.