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Opta’s Supercomputer Forecasts Liverpool to Retain Premier League Crown in 2025-26

Opta’s supercomputer predicts Liverpool as 2025-26 champions, Arsenal runners-up, with relegations looming.

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As the 2025-26 Premier League season nears kickoff, Opta’s supercomputer has released a comprehensive forecast predicting the final standings of all 20 top-flight clubs. This projection offers a clear picture of potential triumphs and struggles across the division.

Liverpool are favoured to defend their title, with a 28.5% probability of clinching back-to-back championships under Arne Slot’s leadership of a talented squad. Arsenal are predicted to finish as runners-up once again, marking their fourth successive second-place finish and carrying a 24.3% chance of capturing their first league title under Mikel Arteta.

Manchester City and Chelsea are both expected to secure top-four finishes. City, despite a subdued previous campaign, hold a stronger title chance (18.8%) compared to Chelsea’s 8.4%. Aston Villa and Newcastle United are poised to compete for Champions League qualification spots, while Crystal Palace, Brighton, Bournemouth, and Brentford are tipped to vie for European competition berths.

The supercomputer predicts Nottingham Forest to drop to 11th after a promising seventh spot last season, with Fulham, West Ham, and Wolverhampton also expected to fall in the standings. Everton is forecast to repeat a 13th-place finish.

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Manchester United’s woes continue as they are projected to finish 12th, which could jeopardise Ruben Amorim’s position as their manager. Tottenham Hotspur are expected to improve to 14th, while newly promoted Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland face immediate relegation back to the Championship, a trend in recent seasons that underscores the growing gulf between divisions.

Arsenal

Saka injury clouds Arsenal victory after Elland Road win

Saka was left out after a pre-match knock; Arsenal beats Leeds and Arteta calls it a “little niggle”

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Arsenal arrived at Elland Road facing a match that had taken on added significance and left with both a victory and fresh uncertainty over one of their key attackers. A set piece and a goalkeeping error by Karl Darlow opened the scoring, and Viktor Gyökeres and Gabriel Jesus added second-half strikes to ensure a comprehensive result that tamped down talk of a potential title collapse. The side remain the frontrunners, but attention has already turned to the condition of Bukayo Saka.

A video of the moment Saka picked up his pre-match injury has circulated, though the precise problem has not been confirmed. It appeared his left leg was bothering him ahead of kick-off. Mikel Arteta described the issue as a “little niggle” after the game and said that the full extent of the injury is not yet known, while also seeming to play down the prospect of a long-term setback.

Saka’s recent fitness record gives added context to the concern. He suffered a major hamstring injury at the end of 2024, underwent surgery and was sidelined for more than three months before returning in late March. At the start of the current campaign he missed six games because of a less significant hamstring issue.

At this stage there is no confirmed return date for Saka. Medical clarification is required before any timeline can be provided. The club and supporters will await a formal diagnosis, but that information is expected to follow quickly. For now, Arsenal can take encouragement from the result at Elland Road while monitoring the recovery of a player who has recently battled through significant hamstring problems.

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Man City

City’s 2-2 at Tottenham: Solanke Rally, Mixed Returns and Player Grades

Man City drew 2-2 with Tottenham after surrendering a 2-0 half-time lead to Dominic Solanke Arsenal

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Manchester City surrendered a 2-0 half-time advantage and saw Tottenham fight back to claim a 2-2 draw. Dominic Solanke scored twice, the second described in the original report as a goal likely to attract Puskás Award conversation, and his equaliser framed a tense final phase in which Spurs appeared most likely to take all three points.

The result cost City ground in the Premier League title race; Arsenal are now six clear at the summit. There were, however, encouraging signs for City: the new arrivals Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi made positive contributions and Rayan Cherki continued the form that has marked him out as one of the division’s standout performers over the last couple of months. Guardiola’s move to a narrow possession system prioritising central combinations is credited with getting the best out of Cherki.

Erling Haaland has broken his open-play duck this week against Galatasaray, but he remains without a non-penalty Premier League goal since Dec. 20. The tactical switch to a 4-2-2-2 / 4-3-1-2 and the emphasis on central combinations exposed some limitations in Haaland’s role as a facilitator. While City’s midfield dominated the first half, the striker was often not on the same page with his teammates.

Player ratings
GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma — 6.6: Quiet first half, required several important saves in the second.
RB: Matheus Nunes — 6.2: Limited influence in possession; Spurs found space down their left when Destiny Udogie advanced.
CB: Abdukodir Khusanov — 7.2: Beaten by Solanke for the opener but delivered notable recovery defending.
CB: Marc Guéhi — 7.0: Largely assured; his deflection led to Spurs’ first goal and Guardiola felt a foul occurred.
LB: Rayan Aït-Nouri — 6.5: Elevated City’s technical level with accomplished left-sided footwork.
CM: Rodri — 8.1: Booked but impressive, particularly in the first hour after returning from injury.
CM: Bernardo Silva (c) — 8.0: Canny and creative; assisted Semenyo’s goal.
CM: Nico O’Reilly — 7.4: Enjoyed his midfield role against an outnumbered pivot; later moved to left back.
AM: Rayan Cherki — 7.9: Looked effective despite a knock; opened the scoring with a pinpoint, deflected strike.
ST: Antoine Semenyo — 7.4: Dangerous down the left channel; composed finish for City’s second.
ST: Erling Haaland — 8.0: Limited opportunities and some poor final actions that killed chances.

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Subs: Tijjani Reijnders 7.7, Nico González 6.5, Phil Foden N/A, Omar Marmoush N/A. Unused subs listed in the report.

Match statistics (Tottenham v Man City): Possession 39% v 61%; xG 0.97 v 2.01; Total shots 12 v 15; Shots on target 6 v 3; Big chances 2 v 3; Passing accuracy 81% v 91%; Fouls 15 v 12; Corners listed in the original report.

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Arsenal

Arsenal Face Transfer Dilemma After Mikel Merino Ruled Out Before Deadline

Mikel Merino’s possible “serious” injury pushes Arsenal toward the transfer market ahead of deadline

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Arsenal have been left assessing their options after Mikel Merino was ruled out of Saturday’s victory over Leeds United and could be facing a lengthy absence, a report has revealed. The suggestion of a “serious” injury raises the possibility that Merino will miss several weeks and forces the club to consider the closing transfer window.

Merino provides vital midfield cover under Arteta, supporting both Martín Zubimendi and Declan Rice. While Merino has forged a reputation as an emergency striker, it is in midfield where he finds most importance under Arteta, providing key cover to both Martín Zubimendi and Declan Rice. His loss would reduce the manager’s rotation options at a time when Arsenal are pushing on multiple fronts.

Winger Bukayo Saka also gave cause for concern after he pulled out of the warm-up for Saturday’s game. Saka’s withdrawal created a bench opportunity that saw Christian Nørgaard included, a player who was not originally expected to be on the bench until Saka’s late absence opened a spot.

With transfer deadlines across Europe just hours away, an emergency signing could be required if Merino is ruled out for a significant period. Arteta will want multiple rotation options as Arsenal head into the decisive phase of their Quadruple charge, and previous seasons have shown how injuries and a lack of high-level alternatives can derail title hopes.

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Arsenal have not confirmed the extent of Merino’s problem, but reports indicating a “serious” injury point to at least a month on the sidelines. Even in a best-case scenario, Merino appears likely to miss Tuesday’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Chelsea. Meetings with Sunderland, Brentford, Wigan Athletic and Tottenham Hotspur across February may also come too soon for him.

Chelsea return to Arsenal’s schedule at the start of March, followed by a Champions League round of 16 tie against one of Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta, Olympiacos or Bayer Leverkusen. The club must weigh the risk of further absences against the window deadline when deciding whether to act.

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