Analytics & Stats
Szoboszlai’s Conference League Comment Underlines Liverpool’s Finishing and Late-Goal Problems
Szoboszlai warned Liverpool must wake up; finishing inefficiency and late concessions persist. Today
Dominik Szoboszlai opened the scoring with his fourth Premier League free kick of the season, the most any Liverpool player has ever amassed in the competition’s history, but the lead did not hold. Richarlison salvaged a 90th-minute equaliser as Liverpool again dropped points late.
“I feel flat,” Szoboszlai told Sky Sports, barely raising his voice above a whisper. “We have to wake up because if we carry on like this, we should be happy with the Conference League.” Asked for an explanation behind this painfully familiar collapse — it was the eighth goal Liverpool have conceded in the 90th minute or later this season — Szoboszlai delivered a concerning response: “I don’t know why this is happening, I honestly don’t know.
“I think in the first half we played very well, we controlled the whole game and they hardly created chances apart from one or two headers. Second half we just didn’t so the same things.”
There was a clear sense of complacency after the opener: between that free kick and Richarlison’s equaliser, Tottenham registered twice as many shots on target as their hosts (six to three). Manager Arne Slot was less focused on attitude and more on finishing. “I think we are completely underperforming in terms of the chances we create and the amount of goals we score,” he said. “That’s quite a surprise if you look at how much attacking quality we have.”
Slot added: “If you’re not able to score enough, then you have to be able to keep a clean sheet, and that’s something we find really hard this season.”
The numbers underline the problem. “Liverpool have racked up 49 Premier League goals this season from an expected goals (xG) of 50.0, per FotMob.” That one-goal difference which Slot has bemoaned is almost exactly the Premier League average. Ten teams have a larger negative differential between their xG and actual goals scored, while nine different sides have been more efficient than Liverpool this season. Liverpool scored 86 goals from an xG of 83.5 last term, and nine clubs out-performed their predicted goal tally by a larger margin than the Reds.
Opta define a “big chance” as “a situation where a player is reasonably expected to score” and it is these opportunities Liverpool have frequently squandered. The side have converted 32% of their “big chances” this season—only three clubs have a lower rate. Big chances created fell from 150 (1st) in 2024–25 to 81 (6th) this season, while big chances missed moved from 92 (1st) to 55 (4th).
Analytics & Stats
Six standout performers from Premier League gameweek 30, per FotMob
FotMob’s match ratings list the eight best performers from Premier League gameweek 30. Across clubs.
As the 2025/26 Premier League season reached gameweek 30, the table tension showed elsewhere: Tottenham Hotspur finally displayed signs of life in a relegation battle likely to go to the wire, West Ham United continued a resurgent escape attempt, and Nottingham Forest awaited the season’s end. FotMob’s match ratings identify a group of players who made the difference in this round.
Alex Scott (Bournemouth) was one of the highest-rated players in a 0–0 draw at Burnley. Scott completed 18 defensive contributions, including 12 ground duels won and eight recoveries, leading the game in those categories and frustrating Burnley’s attempts to get round him.
Yankuba Minteh (Brighton & Hove Albion) earned an 8.3 rating for his role in Brighton’s 1–0 win over Sunderland that moved his side above the Black Cats. The winger worked hard defensively and scored with a sliced cross that inexplicably found the net.
William Saliba (Arsenal) produced a commanding display in a 2–0 win over Everton. Saliba finished with 127 touches, at least 34 more than any other player, created two chances, and played 13 passes into the final third, one of which was a long ball, underpinning a performance that combined defensive dominance with purposeful distribution.
Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United) provided a simple but decisive contribution in a 1–0 win over Chelsea. A single pass released him into space in front of Robert Sánchez and he held his composure to slot home what proved to be the winning goal.
Konstantinos Mavropanos (West Ham United) produced late heroics against Manchester City, scoring in the 91st minute to earn a point. The centre back also attracted a viral image after taking an Erling Haaland shot to the face and received a standing ovation from a Hammers fanbase rediscovering its affection for the team.
Dango Ouattara (Brentford) rated 8.3 after an excellent creative showing against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Ouattara controlled Caoimhín Kelleher’s long ball and set up Igor Thiago, a move that briefly looked like it would secure a big victory before Wolves mounted a comeback to draw 2–2.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Supercomputer Lays Out 2025–26 Premier League Forecast as Arsenal Lead the Way
Opta’s supercomputer predicts Arsenal favourites and projects points, qualification and relegations.
Opta’s supercomputer has produced a clear statistical view of the 2025–26 Premier League table, heavily favouring Arsenal while mapping out qualification and relegation probabilities. The model gives Arsenal 84.61 predicted points and a 97.46% chance of the title from their current 70 points. Manchester City sit on 61 points with a prediction of 74.70 and a 2.54% title chance.
The weekend’s results felt significant. Arsenal pulled further clear of Manchester City after a dramatic 2–0 victory over Everton inspired by the record-breaking feats of Max Dowman. City were held to a 1–1 draw against West Ham after Pep Guardiola warned that a slip up would be catastrophic. “Now it’s West Ham that defines the Premier League,” he declared. “Now we go there knowing that if we drop points, it will be over.” After the draw Guardiola insisted: “It’s not over.” The supercomputer remains unconvinced that City can close the gap.
Manchester United have opened up breathing room in the race for Champions League qualification. United sit on 54 points with a predicted 66.03 and a 78.07% chance of qualifying after a convincing 3–1 win over Aston Villa. “We are in a good position at the moment,” Michael Carrick admitted, “but still a lot to play for.”
The model projects Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea to contest the remaining top-six positions, with Liverpool on 49 points and a predicted 61.80 (34.09% chance), and Chelsea on 48 points and a predicted 60.52 (23.21% chance). Dominik Szoboszlai captured the mood after Liverpool’s 1–1 draw with Tottenham: “We have to wake up because if we carry on like this, we should be happy with the Conference League.”
At the bottom, the supercomputer gives Burnley and Wolves near-certain relegation, while Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham occupy the zone of greatest uncertainty. Tottenham headed into the weekend one point above the relegation zone and ended it level with Leeds, Forest and West Ham; the mood in north London has lifted after they ended their losing run.
The Opta projection frames the current landscape: Arsenal clear favourites, City still dangerous, United pushing for the top three, and a congested battle for European places and survival.
Analytics & Stats
Fernandes breaks United single-season Premier League assists record
Bruno Fernandes reached 16 Premier League assists for Manchester United after two against Villa win.
Bruno Fernandes moved clear of a 26-year Manchester United mark with two assists in the win over Aston Villa, setting a new club record for Premier League assists in a single season.
Those deliveries were his 15th and 16th of the 2025–26 campaign, eclipsing David Beckham’s total of 15 from the 1999–00 season. The assists helped secure a victory that mattered for United’s Champions League qualification push and extended the team’s home winning streak under Michael Carrick to five successive matches.
“I’m more proud and pleased because I did it serving my teammates. Giving joy to the others is also very good,” Fernandes told Sky Sports of his new record. “When you play in the position I play, I’m very happy I can help them to score and be happy in that moment.
“It’s a huge achievement for me, but the main achievement would be in the top spot at the end of the season.”
Carrick underlined Fernandes’s importance after the match. “He’s had so many big moments, whether it’s to score a goal or to make a pass, he is always there,” Carrick reflected on Fernandes postmatch. “He always puts himself forwards whether it’s training or a game.”
Fernandes’s influence runs deeper than this single-season record. In the Premier League alone he has supplied 67 assists in just over six years, a figure the club noted is two fewer than the number of goals he has scored in the competition. He has also joined Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs as the only Manchester United players in the Premier League era to reach 100 or more goals and 100 or more assists in all competitions.
“We’re delighted to have him. He’s not someone you’d want to lose,” Carrick enthused. “You can always count on him to be there. It’s a really good trait to have. He’s been through ups and downs here but it’s never knocked him. He is there to make the difference.”
United now sit third in the Premier League standings, having collected 22 points from a possible 27 under Carrick, and head into the coming fixtures in a stronger position.
