A single weekend altered the Premier League landscape enough for Opta’s supercomputer to widen Arsenal’s advantage at the top.

Arsenal sit six points clear after the most recent fixtures and the model now projects them as overwhelming favourites. The projection places Arsenal on 82.08 predicted points with a 91.01% title probability, up from 84% before the latest set of results. The Gunners followed a previous defeat to Manchester United with a commanding 4–0 win over Leeds United.

Manchester City remain second on current points (47) but the model gives them 71.41 predicted points and a 5.49% chance of the title after slipping to a 2–2 draw at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium thanks to an inspired second-half showing from Dominic Solanke.

Aston Villa are third on 46 points and the projection assigns them 71.18 predicted points and a 3.25% title chance. Villa fell 1–0 to Brentford despite facing a side reduced to 10 men for a half. Dango Ouattara opened the scoring shortly after Kevin Schade’s red card. Unai Emery’s players registered 20 second-half shots but only four on target, and VAR ruled out a potential equaliser. Emery was without five regular starters: John McGinn, Ollie Watkins, Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana.

Further down the table, Liverpool (39 current points) are projected to finish with 63.15 points and a 40.29% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. Chelsea (40) are on 62.67 predicted points with a 39.43% chance. Manchester United (41) are given 61.39 predicted points and a 26.75% chance of Champions League qualification. Brentford and Newcastle are forecast at 55.16 and 53.38 predicted points respectively, with Brentford slightly more likely to qualify than Newcastle.

At the bottom, West Ham (20) face significant danger: Opta’s simulations give them an 82.94% chance of relegation after their 3–2 defeat to Chelsea, an evening marked by a 22-man scrum. “This is a blip,” Jarrod Bowen promised. “We’ve had some good performances, good results. We’ve shown what we can do, with and without the ball.” Opta still see West Ham tumbling out in almost 83% of 10,000 simulations. Leeds (9.97%) and Nottingham Forest (7.42%) are the two sides closest to following them, a scenario that would require a major change of fortunes.

Mohamed Salah set a new Premier League benchmark when he reached 152 goal contributions at a single stadium during Liverpool’s 4–1 thumping of Newcastle United on Saturday. That total places him ahead of the previous record of 151, which was held jointly by Thierry Henry and Wayne Rooney at Highbury and Old Trafford respectively.

Salah’s tally at that ground is compiled from 107 goals and 45 assists, producing the 152 figure that now stands alone at the top. Thierry Henry’s total there was 114 goals and 37 assists for 151, while Wayne Rooney recorded 101 goals and 50 assists for the same combined total.

Mohamed Salah

Goals 107

Assists 45

Total 152

Thierry Henry

Goals 114

Assists 37

Total 151

Wayne Rooney

Goals 101

Assists 50

Total 151

Beyond the stadium-specific milestone, Salah remains on course for other career landmarks in the Premier League. He is fourth on the all-time scoring list with 190, 18 behind Wayne Rooney’s 208 and behind Alan Shearer and Harry Kane. Whether he can move up into third depends on form and remaining fixtures: Liverpool have 14 Premier League games left and Salah has scored four goals in 16 outings this season.

Player

Goals

Alan Shearer 260

Harry Kane 213

Wayne Rooney 208

Mohamed Salah 190*

Andrew Cole 187

*stats correct as of Feb. 1, 2026

The past 18 months have been full of broken records for Salah and have strengthened his standing in Premier League history. The clock is ticking for Salah and it is not yet clear how long he has left to rack up the numbers. His current contract says 18 months but his tense relationship with manager Arne Slot may suggest otherwise.

Mohamed Salah became the first player to register 152 goal contributions at a single Premier League stadium during Liverpool’s 4–1 thumping of Newcastle United on Saturday. That total moves him past the previous high of 151, a mark held jointly by Thierry Henry and Wayne Rooney at Highbury and Old Trafford respectively.

Salah’s landmark is the product of sustained output for Liverpool over several seasons. The numbers at that ground break down as 107 goals and 45 assists, producing a combined total of 152. By comparison, Thierry Henry recorded 114 goals and 37 assists for 151, while Wayne Rooney had 101 goals and 50 assists, also 151.

Salah

Goals

Assists

Total

Mohamed Salah

107

45

152

Thierry Henry

114

37

151

Wayne Rooney

101

50

151

Beyond this stadium-specific record, Salah is also tracking career scoring milestones in the league. He sits fourth on the all-time Premier League scorers list on 190, 18 behind Wayne Rooney’s 208 return and behind Alan Shearer and Harry Kane. Whether he can climb into third remains an open question given Liverpool have 14 Premier League matches left and Salah has scored four goals in 16 appearances this season.

Player

Goals

Alan Shearer

260

Harry Kane

213

Wayne Rooney

208

Mohamed Salah

190*

Andrew Cole

187

*stats correct as of Feb. 1, 2026

The past 18 months have been full of broken records for Salah, reinforcing his standing in Premier League history. The clock is ticking for Salah and it is not yet clear how long he has left to rack up the numbers. His current contract says 18 months but his tense relationship with manager Arne Slot may suggest otherwise.