Draws all around mean it’s as you were in the fight for Premier League survival, although two clubs will be particularly content with their weekend’s work. West Ham once again fought admirably to secure a result against the title-chasing Manchester City, while Tottenham Hotspur reminded their supporters what the concept of hope feels like.

Tottenham sit on 30 points, Leeds on 32, Nottingham Forest on 29 and West Ham on 29. For Spurs, momentum from a point at Liverpool arrives ahead of a crucial run. Nottingham Forest’s visit to north London next Sunday is a bona fide relegation six-pointer. The second leg of Spurs’ Champions League round of 16 tie with Atlético Madrid arrives before Forest’s visit, but their main goal on Wednesday night, given that they’re 5–2 down, must be ensuring that everyone escapes the contest unscathed. They were without as many as 13 players at Anfield.

Spurs begin April away at Sunderland. Brighton & Hove Albion visit N17 the following week before Tudor’s men take on resurgent bottom dwellers Wolverhampton Wanderers. May begins with a trip to Villa Park.

Leeds, so improved since Christmas, have been dragged back into the dogfight by a five-game winless run in the top flight. They are at home to surprise European hopefuls Brentford next Saturday night. Upcoming home games against Wolves and Burnley present Daniel Farke’s side with a great opportunity to secure six points. Leeds also travel to Manchester United and mid-table Bournemouth in April.

West Ham will take confidence from their recent showing against Manchester City and next head to Aston Villa. Nottingham Forest travel to Tottenham and will see that match as a timely chance to recover points in the battle to avoid the drop.

The scrap looks set to run to the wire, with four teams scrapping to avoid one fatal position. Richarlison, Everton’s savior four years ago, isn’t going to let the Lilywhites succumb to a humiliating relegation, their first in almost 50 years.

The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.

Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.

Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:

– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%

Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.

The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.

Manchester City reduced the gap to Premier League leaders Arsenal to two points with a 1-0 victory over Leeds United at Elland Road. Leeds started the brighter side, pressing high and creating the early openings, including a couple of chances for Dominic Calvert-Lewin that went narrowly wide.

City grew into the game from around the half-hour mark and then took the lead on the stroke of halftime when Antoine Semenyo finished a move created by a low cross from Rayan Aït-Nouri and a pass that cut Leeds open from Rayan Cherki. The goal proved decisive: Leeds were unable to sustain the same intensity for the full 90 minutes and City managed the second half to protect their advantage.

Antoine Semenyo has now scored four Premier League goals since his January arrival and six in all competitions for City. His finish shortly before the break arrived in a game without Haaland, thought to be a decision to help him manage a knee issue.

Player ratings (out of 10):
GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma 8.0 — Largely a spectator after Leeds’ early pressure.
RB: Matheus Nunes 8.2 — One of City’s better attacking outlets.
CB: Rúben Dias 8.4 — Dominant defensively, led the match in clearances.
CB: Marc Guéhi 7.6 — Made a goal-saving challenge in the six-yard box.
LB: Rayan Aït-Nouri 8.6 — Surging run and intelligent low cross that led to the goal.
DM: Rodri 7.8 — Controlled the tempo once Leeds’ intensity eased.
RM: Rayan Cherki 7.1 — Played the pass that created Semenyo’s chance.
AM: Bernardo Silva (c) 7.1 — Frustratingly quiet given his possession.
LM: Nico O’Reilly 7.0 — Promising performance cut short by a limp.
ST: Antoine Semenyo 7.8 — Clinical with the decisive chance.
ST: Omar Marmoush 6.3 — Improved slightly after a difficult start.

Subs: Savinho (68’) 6.1, Tijjani Reijnders (70’) 6.7, Nathan Aké (88’) N/A. Unused: James Trafford, Abdukodir Khusanov, John Stones, Nico González, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku.

Key match stats: Possession 33% Leeds, 67% Man City; Expected Goals (xG) 1.47 Leeds, 1.77 Man City; Total shots 14 each; Shots on target 2 Leeds, 5 City; Big chances 2 Leeds, 4 City; Passing accuracy 74% Leeds, 90% City; Fouls committed 10 Leeds, 8 City.