The quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup present a clear pathway to Wembley and a chance for silverware for the leading contenders. Three heavyweights stand out as favourites, while Premier League challengers and a League One side aim to upset the balance.

Cardiff City have a reputation for overperforming in this competition. The Welsh side, who were in the Championship when they reached the 2011–12 final via a favourable run of fixtures, pushed Liverpool to penalties in the showpiece before suffering heartbreak. Now fighting to escape League One, the Carabao Cup has not been a distraction; Swindon Town, Cheltenham, Burnley and Wrexham have all been discarded en route to the last eight. Their reward is a visit from Chelsea.

Chelsea have made life difficult for themselves in cup ties away to Lincoln City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, but Enzo Maresca should name a fairly strong team for the trip to Wales. If the Italian selects even a handful of regular starters, they should conquer Cardiff with little fuss. The Bluebirds will be keen to see a much-changed Chelsea teamsheet on Tuesday, offering hope of a surprise result, but a convincing defeat is the most likely outcome. Prediction: Cardiff 1–3 Chelsea.

Manchester City arrive brimming with confidence and represent a stern test for Brentford. Pep Guardiola’s men have claimed victory in five successive matches and, after their 2–1 win over Real Madrid, they breezed past Crystal Palace on the road last weekend. City have won the trophy four times under Guardiola and dominated the competition between 2018 and 2021, though they have not progressed beyond the last eight since. Brentford possess attacking options in Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara, but an alarming away record in the league — seven defeats from eight — undermines their hopes. Prediction: Man City 3–0 Brentford.

Newcastle, who lifted the trophy last season, face Fulham. Eddie Howe’s side beat Fulham 2–1 at St James’ Park this term with Bruno Guimarães’s last-gasp strike in October. Fulham, inspired by Harry Wilson at times, can threaten, but Newcastle should prevail at home. Prediction: Newcastle 2–1 Fulham.

Arsenal host Crystal Palace a week later because Palace are in the Europa Conference League. Palace have enjoyed two days out at Wembley in the past seven months, conquering Man City in the FA Cup final and beating Liverpool in the Community Shield. Arsenal beat Palace 1–0 on home soil earlier this season and, despite Palace’s capacity to defy the odds, the Gunners should reach the semis. Prediction: Arsenal 2–0 Crystal Palace.

William Saliba has been candid about the uncertainty that marked his early years at Arsenal and how those experiences shaped the player he is today. Arriving as a 19-year-old, Saliba did not immediately break into Mikel Arteta’s plans and spent time with the U23s before a sequence of loans that took him back to France.

“It was a bit hard because I arrived from France, then went back on loan, then six months after I came back here, I went back to France again,” Saliba recalled in an interview with Arsenal’s official website.

“Six months there, then I changed club, then I came back here. So it was difficult. I was living in a hotel when I came here at first, then I found a house but went back to France, so when I came back after that I wanted to settle down quickly.”

Those repeated moves left Saliba questioning his future at the club. “I had some doubts because when you go on loan two or three times, you think maybe it’s not here that I will play,” he candidly admitted. “But it’s like this, in football you have some doubts sometimes, but you have to make sure you forget your doubts and you move forward, and that’s what I did.

“So I went on loan, I kept going to improve. Then I came back here stronger. When I came back I played almost every game. When you have a new career, you have to adapt because you will have some moments where things won’t go how you want. So you have to adapt and of course you have to be strong mentally to be prepared for anything.”

Arteta handed him a starting role at the beginning of the 2022–23 season and Saliba kept a clean sheet in a 2–0 win at Crystal Palace. Since his Premier League debut, made 1,107 days after signing for Arsenal, his rise has been marked by consistent selection and recognition; he won Ligue 1 Young Player of the Year during his loan period and is widely considered one of the best in his position.

Talk of outside interest surfaced as his initial contract neared its end, but Saliba committed his future to the club with a long-term extension in September. “Everything was complete for me,” Saliba shrugged. “We have a good team, we have a good coach, we have good staff. And I’m sure that the future here will be very good, so there was no hesitation to extend my contract with Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta admitted Arsenal were forced into a risky situation on Saturday when William Saliba remained on the pitch for the full 90 minutes following Ben White’s early withdrawal. With Ben White leaving in the first half there was no way to manage Saliba’s minutes despite the manager’s clear misgivings.

Arteta said: “We had to risk Willy,” Arteta fretted. “It probably wasn’t the best call to play 90 minutes because we were buying tickets for another injury. But we don’t have anybody else. That’s dangerous, for sure.” The comment underlined the strain on Arsenal’s defensive resources.

Saliba’s return lasted far longer than the manager would have preferred, but the centre back appeared to come through the contest unscathed and will not be required to play again for at least seven days as the club have a short respite. The immediate outlook for White is less clear.

The right back pulled up clasping the back of his leg as Wolves launched a rare break led by Hwang Hee-chan after an Arsenal long throw. David Raya had to make a save and White, part of the chasing pack, then went off. Arteta said it “looks like a hamstring” and added: “We don’t know the extent of that.”

On the broader cause, the manager blamed overloading of minutes. “Obviously he hasn’t played a lot of minutes because of the previous knee issue that he had, then the moment he started to get some momentum he had to play a lot because we didn’t have any other solution,” Arteta moaned.

Arsenal’s defensive list already included Gabriel and Cristhian Mosquera, while Riccardo Calafiori was suspended. That leaves Jurriën Timber increasingly relied upon to cover multiple roles; Timber has been useful through the middle but will now be needed at right back until White or Mosquera return to full fitness, which the manager suggested could be well into 2026.

Current squad injury notes list Gabriel out until late December, Cristhian Mosquera out until early January, Ben White out, William Saliba fit but recently returned, Jurriën Timber fit but not 100%, Riccardo Calafiori returning from suspension and Piero Hincapié fit. Myles Lewis-Skelly is also listed as a left back.