The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.

Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.

Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:

– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%

Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.

The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.

Wesley Fofana and Hannibal Mejbri have publicly shared racist messages they received on social media in the aftermath of Chelsea’s Premier League fixture with Burnley.

Both players posted screenshots of the abuse. Fofana wrote: “2026, it’s still the same thing, nothing changes. These people are never punished,” and added: “You create big campaigns against racism, but nobody actually does anything.” Mejbri posted: “It’s 2026 and there are still people like that. Educate yourself and your kids, please.”

Both Chelsea and Burnley issued strongly worded statements in support of their players, with the Blues saying they were “appalled and disgusted” by the abuse. Chelsea added: “The targeted racist abuse Wes has been subjected to following today’s Premier League fixture against Burnley is abhorrent and will not be tolerated,” and continued: “Such behaviour is completely unacceptable and runs counter to the values of the game and everything we stand for as a club. There is no room for racism.

“We stand unequivocally with Wes. He has our full support, as do all our players who are too often forced to endure this hatred simply for doing their job. We will work with the relevant authorities and platforms in identifying the perpetrators and take the strongest possible action.”

Anti-discrimination group Kick it Out called for tougher action online and pressed social media platforms to improve protections. They said: “Football is working together to tackle this issue alongside the UK Football Policing Unit and Ofcom, but social media companies must do more to offer protections to players and help improve accountability when incidents occur.”

The episode follows a troubled week in which Real Madrid forward Vinicius Junior alleged racial abuse from Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni. Midweek referee François Letexier initiated UEFA’s three-step protocol after the allegation; the game was stopped for 10 minutes, information was passed to the fourth official, Vinicius Jr left the pitch and refused to continue playing, and the match later restarted. Abuse from Benfica’s supporters circulated widely on social media and no public address warning was issued to the crowd.

The 2025–26 campaign has seen repeated incidents of racial and homophobic abuse, online and in stadiums, and advocates are urging stronger accountability from authorities and platforms.

Zian Flemming’s stoppage-time header earned Burnley a 1-1 draw with Chelsea after Wesley Fofana was dismissed in the second half for two yellow cards. Chelsea had taken an early lead through João Pedro, who has now scored seven goals in 10 appearances under Liam Rosenior.

Fofana’s second booking followed two mistimed challenges that cost Chelsea their numerical advantage and altered the pattern of the game. The dismissal punished an overly aggressive approach and handed Burnley a clear route back into the match from a corner. The red card will also rule Fofana out of next week’s clash with Arsenal.

Robert Sánchez “commanded his area effectively and was helpless to deny Flemming in the 93rd minute.” Despite that late goal, Chelsea still moved temporarily into fourth, although Manchester United can leapfrog them on Monday.

João Pedro was the standout attacker, finishing from close range to open the scoring and linking play thereafter. Pedro Neto used his searing speed to assist the striker and proved a handful for Burnley’s defence. Cole Palmer was the liveliest of the forwards, while Enzo Fernández struggled to make a decisive impact.

Trevoh Chalobah produced an otherwise impressive display but saw his clean sheet end because of his centre-back partner’s red card. Reece James was characteristically solid defensively but found the lack of natural width down the right-hand side limited his attacking influence. Moisés Caicedo supplied the through ball that created the opener, while Andrey Santos offered another composed midfield performance.

The match stats underline Chelsea’s control of possession and territory: possession 66% to 34%, expected goals 1.88 to 0.78, total shots 12 each and shots on target 2 to 4. Chelsea created more big chances yet paid for a lapse in discipline and a late defensive error that cost two points against promoted opposition.