More than £3 billion ($4 billion) and 155 incoming transfers set high expectations across the Premier League this summer. Several recruits have settled quickly, but others have produced worrying initial returns that have left managers and supporters asking questions.

Everton’s Thierno Barry arrived from Villarreal after a season that yielded 11 goals and four assists. The 22-year-old joined for £27 million ($36 million) with time to adapt, but he remains behind Beto, has made two Premier League starts, nine appearances in total and is still searching for his first goal or assist for the club. On two occasions he was substituted early: at half time at Anfield and after about an hour at home to Brighton & Hove Albion.

West Ham’s £20 million ($26.7 million) signing Mads Hermansen began the campaign as Graham Potter’s first-choice goalkeeper but has endured a difficult start. The 25-year-old conceded 11 times in four appearances, sustained several high-profile errors and has dropped behind Alphonse Areola with Nuno Espírito Santo opting against an early recall.

Anthony Elanga moved to Newcastle for £55 million ($73.4 million) after scoring 18 goals for Nottingham Forest in 2024–25. The 23-year-old has made 10 appearances for the Magpies without a goal or assist and has oscillated between starting and the bench while competing with Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy.

Jean-Clair Todibo’s permanent move to West Ham cost £32.8 million ($43.8 million) after an obligation to buy. He has fallen out of favour following disciplinary issues under Potter and is unlikely to figure under Espírito Santo.

James Trafford returned to Manchester City for £31 million ($41.3 million) but is now behind Gianluigi Donnarumma and has been restricted to the bench following a difficult display against Tottenham Hotspur.

Alexander Isak joined Liverpool for a Premier League record £125 million ($166.9 million) but missed pre-season after a strike. Arne Slot has eased him in, using him alongside Hugo Ekitiké, with the record signing yet to reach expected levels.

Newcastle paid £55 million ($73.4 million) for Yoane Wissa from Brentford, but a knee injury means he is yet to play for his new club and has only two competitive appearances since the end of last season.

Chelsea’s £51.5 million ($68.7 million) addition Jamie Gittens has made seven appearances and three starts without making a major impact. At Liverpool, Milos Kerkez arrived for £40 million ($53.4 million) to succeed Andy Robertson but has made a sluggish start, was bullied on his debut by Antoine Semenyo and was hooked in the first half against Burnley as he edged toward a red card.

It remains early and circumstances differ across clubs, but the opening weeks have provided enough evidence to raise concerns about several high-cost recruits.

Kyle Walker has conceded that his midseason move away from Manchester City during the 2024–25 campaign was driven by personal motives even as he values the experience. Faced with reduced playing time, Walker pushed for a switch and completed a six-month loan to AC Milan before the summer brought a permanent transfer to Burnley.

Speaking to Sky Sports, Walker said he should have weighed his role at City more carefully when the club was struggling. He reflected: “Should I have left and gone on loan to AC Milan? I was the club captain, and you’re the first one in line when things are not going really well,” he reflected. “At that time in the season, should I have left? Looking back at it now, probably no.

“I should have stood by or next to my teammates, next to my friends and people who I class as my family. But for the first time probably in my career I was selfish and I thought about myself and I wanted to play football.

“I don’t see it as a bad reason but I wasn’t happy sitting on the bench and getting a game here, there and whenever. I felt that I still had a point to prove that I could still play at a high level. When a club like AC Milan comes, I didn’t think I could turn them down.

“When I came back in the summer I had time to reflect on it. But then I don’t regret it as I always wanted to play abroad and experience that. I’m glad I did the six months, but I probably could have done a bit better.”

Walker initially drew attention in Milan, but injuries and a dip in form saw him lose his place. AC Milan declined their option to make the loan permanent, an option worth around €5 million ($6.7 million). Burnley then paid a similar fee to secure Walker’s services at Turf Moor this summer.

Since arriving at Burnley he has featured prominently, playing every minute of the team’s first seven games of the Premier League 2025/26 season. Those appearances include a 5–1 defeat by his former employers late last month.

Opta’s simulation now favours Arsenal to finish the 2025/26 season top of the Premier League after Liverpool slipped in successive late moments. The champions have suffered back-to-back last-gasp defeats and lost their place at the summit following a 2–1 defeat at Chelsea.

The supercomputer projects Arsenal to end the campaign on 77.11 expected points with a 44.23 percent chance of the title. Liverpool are forecast to finish on 74.91 expected points and carry a 30.61 percent title probability. Manchester City are third in the model, on 69.75 expected points and a 14.32 percent chance of reclaiming the crown.

Arsenal hold a one-point edge in the current table and are expected to reach just over 77 points, which would be three more than they managed as runners-up last season. A 77-point championship would be the lowest tally for a Premier League winner since Manchester United with 75 points in 1996–97.

The projections also outline the battle for European places. Chelsea sit fourth in the model with 61.53 expected points and a 31.08 percent probability of a Champions League berth. Crystal Palace are close behind on 60.85 expected points and a 29.17 percent chance of reaching the top four. Newcastle (58.71 expected points, 22.13 percent), Bournemouth (57.65, 17.77 percent), Tottenham Hotspur (57.04, 17.18 percent), Aston Villa (56.09, 13.68 percent) and Brighton (55.19, 11.49 percent) are all shown competing for those additional Champions League positions.

The model notes a clear top three but anticipates a wider contest for the remaining Champions League spots. Liverpool “remained Opta’s favourites after their defeat to Crystal Palace, but Arsenal have now emerged as the supercomputer’s tip to finish top.”

Despite Crystal Palace’s defeat to Everton that ended a long unbeaten run, Opta remains positive on Palace, projecting their best Premier League points total and the prospect of continental progression next season.