Analytics & Stats
Opta Model Names Liverpool Clear Favourite After Record Premier League Spending
Opta’s model rates Liverpool 50.66% to win after record spending and perfect three-game start today.

The Premier League summer produced record investment as clubs across the division spent a combined £3.19 billion. That spending has already shaped early expectations for the 2025/26 title race, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Liverpool lead the market for title probability after an unprecedented window. The club set a new record for the most spent by a Premier League side in a single window, outlaying £446 million, twice breaking their own club record. Deadline-day capture Alexander Isak arrived for a Premier League-high fee of £125 million, while Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké, Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez were among the other arrivals as Arne Slot strengthens his squad. Liverpool are the only team to have won their opening three matches and recorded a recent victory over last season’s runners-up Arsenal. Opta gives them a 50.66% chance of retaining the title.
Arsenal registered the highest net spend after a busy window. The Gunners spent £225 million and signed Viktor Gyökeres, Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze and Piero Hincapié. Having finished ten points behind Liverpool last season and in second place for the last three terms, Mikel Arteta’s side are expected to push again but the model assigns them a 23.51% probability of success.
Chelsea arrive in the conversation after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph and a productive transfer window. The Blues earned seven points from their opening three league matches, spent £285 million on recruits and finished with a positive net spend following £288 million of sales. João Pedro, Jamie Gittens and Alejandro Garnacho are among the new signings. Opta’s model gives Chelsea a 9.71% chance of becoming English champions.
Manchester City’s title chances have been dented by successive defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion. Those results leave City six points behind Liverpool and their title probability sits at 6.42%.
Twelve clubs are rated below one percent for the title, including Tottenham and Manchester United. Crystal Palace are given a 3.3% chance, the Eagles unbeaten with five points from their opening matches. Newcastle United have 1.68% after a start without a win, having reinvested heavily with funds from the sale of Isak.
Analytics & Stats
Owen hits back on X with statistical rebuttal to Rooney comparison
Owen furiously responded on X, defending his teenage goalscoring record and listing statistics post.

Michael Owen has publicly rejected a social media comparison between himself and Wayne Rooney, posting a detailed numerical response on X. The former striker defended his early career record and challenged any suggestion that Rooney was the superior youngster.
Owen set out specific figures in the comment thread, writing: “At 17, I scored 18 PL goals (winning the Golden Boot), Wazza scored six. At 18, I again scored 18 goals (again winning the Golden Boot and coming fourth in the Ballon d’Or), Wazza scored nine,” Owen replied on X. “In our opening seven seasons, Wazza didn’t outscore me once (117 goals vs. 80). In which time I became the second youngest Ballon d’Or winner ever.
At 17 I scored 18 PL goals (winning the Golden Boot), Wazza scored 6. At 18 I again scored 18 goals (again winning the Golden Boot and coming 4th in The Ballon d’Or), Wazza scored 9. In our opening 7 seasons, Wazza didn’t outscore me once (117 goals v 80). In which time I became…
“Injuries hindered me from then on while he sustained his level. Therefore, he’ll go down as a better player than me. But, at 17, please……”
The exchange underlines two clear threads from the draft: Owen emphasised his precocious goalscoring output, and he acknowledged that injuries limited his later career while Rooney maintained consistency. The draft notes Owen remains the last English player to win the Ballon d’Or, having scooped the prize in 2001. It also contrasts career Premier League totals: Owen finished with 150 strikes in 326 matches, while Rooney produced 208 goals but required 491 games to reach that number.
The debate revolves around raw early numbers and subsequent career trajectories. Owen used the platform to assert the superiority of his teenage output, while the broader picture includes Rooney’s greater longevity and a playing style described in the draft as likely to resonate with a larger percentage of English supporters.
Analytics & Stats
How Premier League Clubs Fared in the 2025 Summer Window: A Ranked Review
A club-by-club assessment of the Premier League summer window: spending, sales and squad impact. ’25

The Premier League’s summer market delivered heavy spending and mixed results. This review ranks clubs by how their windows reshaped squads and balance sheets, using only the transactions and outcomes reported.
At the lower end, Fulham operated on a tight budget and signed backup goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte before deadline day. Late additions Kevin, Samuel Chukwueze and Jonah Kusi-Asare bolstered the forward line, but the window remains underwhelming for Marco Silva’s side. Crystal Palace lost Eberechi Eze, missed a £35 million fee for Marc Guéhi and blocked his move to Liverpool, with Guéhi potentially leaving for free next summer. Yéremy Pino was one of the few exciting arrivals for Palace.
West Ham and Wolverhampton each spent over £100 million but their incomings have yet to impress. West Ham lost Mohammed Kudus, while Wolves saw Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri depart; Jørgen Strand Larsen stayed at Molineux. Aston Villa spent the least of any club yet retained key players and added Harvey Elliott, Jadon Sancho and Evann Guessand. Burnley and Leeds favoured quantity over marquee signings, prioritising depth at affordable prices after promotion.
Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth replaced major talents and reinvested well. Brentford negotiated excellent fees for Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo, Bournemouth profited from defensive sales, and the trio should maintain standards despite changes and Brentford coping without Thomas Frank.
Mid-table movers included Nottingham Forest, who kept Morgan Gibbs-White and Murillo and added four from Botafogo alongside Dan Ndoye, James McAtee and Douglas Luiz. Sunderland spent just over £180 million and added Granit Xhaka, Nordi Mukiele, Lutsharel Geertruida, Habib Diarra and Brian Brobbey.
Big-spending clubs made headline signings. Newcastle secured a record £125 million fee for Alexander Isak, signed Yoane Wissa and Nick Woltemade, and added Anthony Elanga and Malick Thiaw while retaining Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães and Anthony Gordon. Everton’s window featured Jack Grealish, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and several young additions including Thierno Barry. Manchester United bolstered the attack with Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Šeško while offloading Alejandro Garnacho, Jadon Sancho, Antony and Marcus Rashford.
Tottenham refreshed across the pitch with the additions of Mohammed Kudus, Xavi Simons, João Palhinha (loan), Randal Kolo Muani (loan), Kevin Danso and Mathys Tel, while Son Heung-min departed. Manchester City replaced older figures with youth, signing Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki (injured), Gianluigi Donnarumma and James Trafford and recouping fees for McAtee, Yan Couto and Máximo Perrone.
Chelsea spent almost £300 million but achieved a positive net spend, prioritising youth with João Pedro, Jamie Gittens, Alejandro Garancho, Jorrel Hato and Esêvão. Arsenal recorded the highest net spend after investing £267 million while receiving just £9 million in sales; key arrivals included Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Christian Nørgaard, Martín Zubimendi and late arrival Piero Hincapié.
Liverpool led Premier League outlay with £446.5 million. They signed Alexander Isak (Premier League record fee), Florian Wirtz (division record at £116 million), Hugo Ekitiké, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, Giorgi Mamardashvili and Giovanni Leoni, and recouped almost half the spend by selling Luis Díaz and Darwin Núñez. A late collapse of the Marc Guéhi transfer was the only notable disappointment in an otherwise aggressive window for the Reds.
Analytics & Stats
Manchester United’s 2025 Summer Window: Measured Progress, Remaining Questions
United spent on forwards and young keeper, offloaded fringe players, but midfield depth stayed thin.

Manchester United entered the 2025 summer window needing reinforcements after a poor 2024–25 campaign and the mid-season arrival of Ruben Amorim, whose different tactical setup required new personnel. Early 2025–26 performances have been mixed: a dominant display against Arsenal produced no positive result, the side earned four points across games with Fulham and Burnley, and the team suffered a Carabao Cup exit to Grimsby Town.
The club’s principal issue last season was scoring. United failed to score in 15 league matches and the summer business focused on addressing that shortfall. The club triggered Matheus Cunha’s £62.5 million release clause from Wolves; the Brazilian had 15 goals and six assists in one of the few teams that finished below his new club. Bryan Mbeumo arrived from Brentford for an overall package worth £71 million. The Cameroon international scored 20 Premier League goals last season and has already shown an early impact, notably providing a consistent out-ball into the right inside channel and finding the net in the 3–2 win over Burnley at Old Trafford.
Benjamin Šeško, the club’s most expensive summer signing, remains a developing prospect. The 22-year-old recorded 14 and 13 Bundesliga goals across his two seasons and has made three Premier League appearances, all from the bench. Šeško is being positioned as a penalty-area finisher; in his late appearance against Burnley he had eight touches and two off-target headers.
United also added teenage defender Diego León and goalkeeper Senne Lammens, the latter the final arrival in a five-player summer intake. Goalkeeping has been heavily scrutinised; Amorim has preferred Altay Bayındır in the Premier League and André Onana has been limited since an injury. Emiliano Martínez was on the market and reportedly wanted to make the move, but a deal did not make financial sense with Aston Villa’s asking price.
On departures, the club accepted permanent and loan exits for several squad members. Alejandro Garnacho’s £40 million sale to Chelsea is considered ‘pure profit’ in PSR terms and includes a 10% sell-on clause. Marcus Rashford moved to Barcelona on loan with his salary covered, and Aston Villa are contributing to Jadon Sancho’s wages under a loan with an option for a second season. Interest in midfield reinforcements failed to materialise, leaving that area as the principal unresolved need.
Conclusion: the window delivered attacking options and cleaned the squad, but midfield depth and immediate returns from some big signings remain open questions.