Ruben Amorim has indicated he expects Harry Maguire to be available before Manchester United travel to Nottingham Forest next weekend. Maguire’s absence did not prevent Amorim’s side from recording a third consecutive Premier League victory, and the manager is optimistic the centre back can rejoin the squad as United attempt to extend that run.

“Hopefully, he’s going to join us next week, but we’ll see,” Amorim told MUTV. “I hope to have him next week. It’s a simple thing but you never know. And I don’t like to take risks with players. It’s the wrong thing for Harry and for the teammates that are working.

“I just want to show, every time, everyone is important in this team. We have a very good squad.”

Amorim has settled on a three-man defence in which Maguire has become a regular starter after a difficult period at Old Trafford. The tactical switch is credited with bringing improved performances from the centre back and reinforcing his importance to the team.

Maguire enters the final season of his contract and faces a pivotal moment in his career. He is reported to be keen on signing an extension, but any new deal will be shaped by financial considerations, with the player’s current high salary unlikely to be matched in fresh terms. Maguire is said to be prepared to accept lower wages on a future contract, but negotiations are expected to be delicate and complicated despite a mutual desire to reach agreement.

The defender is one of several players with expiring deals that the club must address. Resurgent midfielder Casemiro is approaching the final six months of his contract, and backup goalkeeper Tom Heaton and fringe left back Tyrell Malacia are also nearing the end of their current terms. The club will need to balance squad stability with financial constraints as talks progress.

After nine matches Arsenal sit four points clear at the top and Opta’s supercomputer now makes them the probable champions. “It’s very early,” Mikel Arteta told everyone who was willing to listen after Arsenal opened up a four-point lead at the Premier League summit on Sunday. The model weighs historical quirks — none of the last six teams to top the table after nine matches have finished first, Liverpool the most recent in 2019 — alongside a wide range of current data.

Arsenal’s defensive form impressed at the Emirates. David Raya was forced into his first Premier League save since September by Crystal Palace, yet the Eagles could only manage one shot on target. Arsenal themselves had just one goal-bound effort, but Eberechi Eze’s volley supplied the decisive finish. As both Arteta and Jurriën Timber stressed postgame, the Gunners have “a lot” that can be improved. Opta’s 10,000 simulations return Arsenal as champions two-thirds of the time, represented in the model by a 66.35% chance of winning the title.

Manchester City and Liverpool are projected to chase but trail in probability. Opta gives Man City a 14.33% title chance and Liverpool 11.43%. Chelsea (1.77%), Aston Villa (1.14%) and Bournemouth (1.10%) are all long shots by comparison. Bournemouth finished the weekend in second in the table, and their manager reflected caution: “It’s definitely a very good start, but it’s just a start,” Andoni Iraola said.

The supercomputer’s season projections extend beyond the top three. Opta’s predicted top 10 by points lists Arsenal on 80.02, Man City 70.27, Liverpool 69.25, Chelsea 60.20, Aston Villa 59.22, Bournemouth 58.87, Newcastle 58.45, Crystal Palace 57.27, Man Utd 56.76 and Spurs 56.20.

Manchester United began the campaign with low expectations from the model, which originally forecast a 12th-place finish, yet they have since won three in a row after heavy recruitment. Opta still expects United to finish ninth, and their manager cautioned that fortunes can change quickly: “Three weeks ago, things looked very different, and it can change again just as quickly.”

Eberechi Eze produced the decisive moment that extended Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League to four points. His 39th-minute finish, his first for Arsenal in the competition, arrived from a set-piece that opponents will use to tease the club as “Set-Piece FC.” Arsenal supporters, unconcerned by the label, celebrated a single goal and three points that matter more than style.

The goal arrived as Declan Rice curled a free-kick toward Gabriel at the far post. Yeremy Pino had conceded the set-piece after a naïve moment on the right. Adam Wharton was nominally charged with tracking Eze, who began ten yards out and then slipped into the space in front of the penalty spot. Under the watchful eye of the Three Lions head coach Thomas Tuchel, Eze leapt, twisted his body and executed a scissors-like connection that sent the ball beyond Dean Henderson. The finish required athleticism and technique, qualities Arsenal’s recruitment paid for when they signed him for £65 million ($86.6 million) and handed him the No. 10 shirt.

Eze, 27, had previously opened the scoring for Palace in the corresponding fixture last season, and Arsenal’s move to buy him followed evidence of the damage he could do. He had represented Palace 169 times, scored 40 goals, helped them win the FA Cup, and aided their qualification for Europe. Palace earned a reported £40 million profit on him over five years.

The afternoon contained nervy moments. Viktor Gyökeres almost sought a late goal in injury time rather than run down the clock by the corner flag, prompting anxious reactions inside the Emirates. Around 3,000 Palace supporters applauded Eze when his name appeared in the lineups, a reminder of the “love” he will have for the people at Palace “forever.” Arsenal fans, however, were primarily counting points — three more toward a title they have not won in 21 years.