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Rice at 8/1 for 10+ Premier League goals: a data-led case from Lewis Jones

Lewis Jones argues Declan Rice at 8/1 to score 10+ Premier League goals is a value bet. This season.

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Lewis Jones returns with his weekly notebook column for Betfair and makes the statistical argument for backing Declan Rice to reach 10 Premier League goals this season at 8/1.

Rice registered just four Premier League goals last season, but the underlying evidence shows a player whose role and output are evolving. Signed by Arsenal for £105m from West Ham to play at the base of midfield, Rice has increasingly operated in a more advanced role. Arsenal also added two number sixes this summer in Martin Zubimendi and Christian Norgaard, a sign that the club see Rice positioned further forward.

In fact Rice has started more games for Arsenal at No 8 than at No 6, with 58 to 44. Those 58 starts in the No 8 position produced 13 goals and 18 assists, a total of 31 goal involvements. At that rate he scores roughly every four-and-a-half games; over a 38-game Premier League season the numbers point to just over eight goals.

Heat maps and the eye test indicate he is taking up more attack-minded positions. Wayne Rooney noted the timing of Rice’s runs into the penalty box on punditry last season. Rice is also technically proficient in striking the ball. He scored two free-kicks in one game against Real Madrid in a Champions League knockout game and now holds the right to be Arsenal’s chief set-piece taker, which adds a route to extra goals.

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Jones highlights Rice’s capacity to learn and improve season on season, a trait reflected in his No 8 output and a reason to expect some upward movement from the raw projection. At the Betfair Sportsbook price of 8/1 for 10 or more Premier League goals, Jones judges the market to be underestimating Rice’s chance of hitting double figures.

Analytics & Stats

Salah becomes first player with 152 goal contributions at one Premier League stadium

Salah reached 152 goal contributions at one Premier League ground, overtaking Henry and Rooney. 2026

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Mohamed Salah set a new Premier League benchmark when he reached 152 goal contributions at a single stadium during Liverpool’s 4–1 thumping of Newcastle United on Saturday. That total places him ahead of the previous record of 151, which was held jointly by Thierry Henry and Wayne Rooney at Highbury and Old Trafford respectively.

Salah’s tally at that ground is compiled from 107 goals and 45 assists, producing the 152 figure that now stands alone at the top. Thierry Henry’s total there was 114 goals and 37 assists for 151, while Wayne Rooney recorded 101 goals and 50 assists for the same combined total.

Mohamed Salah

Goals 107

Assists 45

Total 152

Thierry Henry

Goals 114

Assists 37

Total 151

Wayne Rooney

Goals 101

Assists 50

Total 151

Beyond the stadium-specific milestone, Salah remains on course for other career landmarks in the Premier League. He is fourth on the all-time scoring list with 190, 18 behind Wayne Rooney’s 208 and behind Alan Shearer and Harry Kane. Whether he can move up into third depends on form and remaining fixtures: Liverpool have 14 Premier League games left and Salah has scored four goals in 16 outings this season.

Player

Goals

Alan Shearer 260

Harry Kane 213

Wayne Rooney 208

Mohamed Salah 190*

Andrew Cole 187

*stats correct as of Feb. 1, 2026

The past 18 months have been full of broken records for Salah and have strengthened his standing in Premier League history. The clock is ticking for Salah and it is not yet clear how long he has left to rack up the numbers. His current contract says 18 months but his tense relationship with manager Arne Slot may suggest otherwise.

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Analytics & Stats

Salah sets unique Premier League record with 152 goal contributions at one ground

Salah reached 152 goal contributions at one ground, surpassing Henry and Rooney’s 151 totals Feb. 1.

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Mohamed Salah became the first player to register 152 goal contributions at a single Premier League stadium during Liverpool’s 4–1 thumping of Newcastle United on Saturday. That total moves him past the previous high of 151, a mark held jointly by Thierry Henry and Wayne Rooney at Highbury and Old Trafford respectively.

Salah’s landmark is the product of sustained output for Liverpool over several seasons. The numbers at that ground break down as 107 goals and 45 assists, producing a combined total of 152. By comparison, Thierry Henry recorded 114 goals and 37 assists for 151, while Wayne Rooney had 101 goals and 50 assists, also 151.

Salah

Goals

Assists

Total

Mohamed Salah

107

45

152

Thierry Henry

114

37

151

Wayne Rooney

101

50

151

Beyond this stadium-specific record, Salah is also tracking career scoring milestones in the league. He sits fourth on the all-time Premier League scorers list on 190, 18 behind Wayne Rooney’s 208 return and behind Alan Shearer and Harry Kane. Whether he can climb into third remains an open question given Liverpool have 14 Premier League matches left and Salah has scored four goals in 16 appearances this season.

Player

Goals

Alan Shearer

260

Harry Kane

213

Wayne Rooney

208

Mohamed Salah

190*

Andrew Cole

187

*stats correct as of Feb. 1, 2026

The past 18 months have been full of broken records for Salah, reinforcing his standing in Premier League history. The clock is ticking for Salah and it is not yet clear how long he has left to rack up the numbers. His current contract says 18 months but his tense relationship with manager Arne Slot may suggest otherwise.

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Analytics & Stats

Neville Criticises Amorim as Mainoo Rises in Carrick’s Midfield Plan

Neville slams Amorim’s handling of Mainoo as Carrick’s system brings midfield balance for United plus

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Gary Neville used blunt language to describe how Kobbie Mainoo was managed at the start of the season, arguing the midfielder was mishandled before finding form under Michael Carrick.

“I must admit, I never liked the handling of Mainoo,” Neville said on the new episode of Stick to Football, accusing Ruben Amorim of damaging the player when it became clear he would not be selected alongside Bruno Fernandes. “I thought it was rubbish,” he added. “It killed him publicly. And then he never put him in the team at all, apart from [against] Grimsby. That was nearly pushing a talented player out of the club before he even really had a chance to perform. You look at him now in these two matches, you think, how could that be? How could [Manuel] Ugarte [be picked ahead of him]?”

Roy Keane welcomed Mainoo’s recent performances. “You couldn’t ask for any more,” he said, adding that the overall turnaround had been “brilliant.” He also warned that conclusions should be cautious given the sample size: “It is only two games,” he warned, wanting to see more.

Paul Scholes praised the renewed midfield balance once Carrick adjusted the system to include both Mainoo and Fernandes while Casemiro remained at No. 6. “Kobbie and Fernandes, they make your team play football,” Scholes said. “When they had just been doing it with Fernandes, they sent [one] to play. He didn’t really have anyone to play with. Now, Kobbie’s also got that ability to play with someone. It makes a big difference.”

Statistical snapshot from the two recent matches (Man City, Arsenal):
Minutes Played: 90, 90
Rating (Out of 10): 7.5, 6.9
Touches: 51, 54
Passing Accuracy: 91%, 86%
Passes into Final Third: 1, 4
Chances Created: 0, 2
Defensive Contributions: 9, 6

Mainoo’s club revival raises questions about his international prospects. The 20-year-old was instrumental as England reached the Euro 2024 final and has the opportunity to force his way back into the national squad for the World Cup if his run of form continues.

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