After nine matches Arsenal sit four points clear at the top and Opta’s supercomputer now makes them the probable champions. “It’s very early,” Mikel Arteta told everyone who was willing to listen after Arsenal opened up a four-point lead at the Premier League summit on Sunday. The model weighs historical quirks — none of the last six teams to top the table after nine matches have finished first, Liverpool the most recent in 2019 — alongside a wide range of current data.

Arsenal’s defensive form impressed at the Emirates. David Raya was forced into his first Premier League save since September by Crystal Palace, yet the Eagles could only manage one shot on target. Arsenal themselves had just one goal-bound effort, but Eberechi Eze’s volley supplied the decisive finish. As both Arteta and Jurriën Timber stressed postgame, the Gunners have “a lot” that can be improved. Opta’s 10,000 simulations return Arsenal as champions two-thirds of the time, represented in the model by a 66.35% chance of winning the title.

Manchester City and Liverpool are projected to chase but trail in probability. Opta gives Man City a 14.33% title chance and Liverpool 11.43%. Chelsea (1.77%), Aston Villa (1.14%) and Bournemouth (1.10%) are all long shots by comparison. Bournemouth finished the weekend in second in the table, and their manager reflected caution: “It’s definitely a very good start, but it’s just a start,” Andoni Iraola said.

The supercomputer’s season projections extend beyond the top three. Opta’s predicted top 10 by points lists Arsenal on 80.02, Man City 70.27, Liverpool 69.25, Chelsea 60.20, Aston Villa 59.22, Bournemouth 58.87, Newcastle 58.45, Crystal Palace 57.27, Man Utd 56.76 and Spurs 56.20.

Manchester United began the campaign with low expectations from the model, which originally forecast a 12th-place finish, yet they have since won three in a row after heavy recruitment. Opta still expects United to finish ninth, and their manager cautioned that fortunes can change quickly: “Three weeks ago, things looked very different, and it can change again just as quickly.”

Arne Slot has suggested a clear link between Liverpool’s summer changes and Mohamed Salah’s sharp reduction in attacking output this season. Salah arrives at Saturday’s trip to Brentford without a non-penalty goal in any of his previous seven Premier League appearances, the worst run of his Liverpool career, per Opta.

Opponents have openly targeted the winger, sensing he is less likely to track back and that Liverpool are less dangerous in transition. When asked whether the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who left Liverpool for Real Madrid in June, had affected Salah, Slot offered a cautious acknowledgement. “Maybe his whole Liverpool [career] he played with Trent, so it could [be that],” he said. “But he’s been in promising positions often enough to score goals, maybe with Trent even more. But in general, if you have quite a few changes in the summer you have to find new connections. Mo is no exception to this.”

Every key attacking metric for Salah has declined from 2024–25 to 2025–26: goals (0.77 to 0.25), xG (0.68 to 0.30), shots (3.46 to 1.89), shots on target (1.64 to 0.76), touches in the opposition box (10.5 to 6.2), assists (0.48 to 0.25) and chances created (2.37 to 2.02). Stats provided by Opta. Correct as of Oct. 24, 2025.

Last season Alexander-Arnold delivered 147 line-breaking passes to Salah in the Premier League, a total that outstripped any other pairing in the division. Without that supply, Salah has struggled to forge a consistent rapport with a rotating line of right-backs this term.

Slot remains confident in Salah’s quality. “The way he trains, and when we do finishing drills, you cannot lose that,” he insisted. “The only thing is we have to keep bringing him into those positions and he has to bring himself into those positions.

Benchings in Europe have been a recent development. After a limp defeat to Galatasaray at the end of September, Liverpool produced a new-look frontline and romped to a 5–1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt with Cody Gakpo and Florian Wirtz flanking an Ekitiké-Alexander Isak double act. Slot said Salah was unhappy at being left out but viewed that reaction positively. “I hope he is not ever going to take it well, because the moment you are going to take it well then you miss the fire,” he argued.

Arsenal have led the Premier League’s meanest defence in each of the last two seasons, yet that superiority has not been enough to secure the title. The club is still searching for a first Premier League crown since the 2003–04 Invincibles campaign, a drought now extending beyond two decades and noted as the longest since their post-1919 promotion era.

After eight games of the 2025–26 season Arsenal sit top of the table. They have won six fixtures and dropped five points from the 24 available so far. What stands out is the goals-against column. Manchester City (17) and Chelsea (16) have marginally outscored Arsenal (15), while Liverpool, Bournemouth and Tottenham Hotspur have netted just once less often. More telling is how rarely Arsenal have been scored against.

The Gunners’ backline has been breached only three times in the league to date, an average of 0.375 goals conceded per game. That figure is lower than two landmark English defensive records. Highlighted by The Times, Liverpool’s fewest-goals-conceded season (16 in 42 games, 1978–79) works out at 0.381 per game, while Chelsea’s Premier League-era record of 15 goals conceded in 38 games in 2004–05 averages 0.395.

Arsenal still face 30 Premier League fixtures this season, so both defensive standards remain under threat over the long run. Mikel Arteta has tended to select a preferred defensive quartet of Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel and Riccardo Calafiori, but that combination has not been available in every match. The depth of the defensive unit is evident: replacements such as Myles Lewis-Skelly and Cristhian Mosquera have been able to slot in without a visible drop in defensive performance.

The early figures position Arsenal as a team capable of challenging historic benchmarks, but maintaining this level across a full season will determine whether those records can be genuinely threatened.