Analytics & Stats
Manchester United’s 2025 Summer Window: Measured Progress, Remaining Questions
United spent on forwards and young keeper, offloaded fringe players, but midfield depth stayed thin.
Manchester United entered the 2025 summer window needing reinforcements after a poor 2024–25 campaign and the mid-season arrival of Ruben Amorim, whose different tactical setup required new personnel. Early 2025–26 performances have been mixed: a dominant display against Arsenal produced no positive result, the side earned four points across games with Fulham and Burnley, and the team suffered a Carabao Cup exit to Grimsby Town.
The club’s principal issue last season was scoring. United failed to score in 15 league matches and the summer business focused on addressing that shortfall. The club triggered Matheus Cunha’s £62.5 million release clause from Wolves; the Brazilian had 15 goals and six assists in one of the few teams that finished below his new club. Bryan Mbeumo arrived from Brentford for an overall package worth £71 million. The Cameroon international scored 20 Premier League goals last season and has already shown an early impact, notably providing a consistent out-ball into the right inside channel and finding the net in the 3–2 win over Burnley at Old Trafford.
Benjamin Šeško, the club’s most expensive summer signing, remains a developing prospect. The 22-year-old recorded 14 and 13 Bundesliga goals across his two seasons and has made three Premier League appearances, all from the bench. Šeško is being positioned as a penalty-area finisher; in his late appearance against Burnley he had eight touches and two off-target headers.
United also added teenage defender Diego León and goalkeeper Senne Lammens, the latter the final arrival in a five-player summer intake. Goalkeeping has been heavily scrutinised; Amorim has preferred Altay Bayındır in the Premier League and André Onana has been limited since an injury. Emiliano Martínez was on the market and reportedly wanted to make the move, but a deal did not make financial sense with Aston Villa’s asking price.
On departures, the club accepted permanent and loan exits for several squad members. Alejandro Garnacho’s £40 million sale to Chelsea is considered ‘pure profit’ in PSR terms and includes a 10% sell-on clause. Marcus Rashford moved to Barcelona on loan with his salary covered, and Aston Villa are contributing to Jadon Sancho’s wages under a loan with an option for a second season. Interest in midfield reinforcements failed to materialise, leaving that area as the principal unresolved need.
Conclusion: the window delivered attacking options and cleaned the squad, but midfield depth and immediate returns from some big signings remain open questions.
Analytics & Stats
Six standout performers from Premier League gameweek 30, per FotMob
FotMob’s match ratings list the eight best performers from Premier League gameweek 30. Across clubs.
As the 2025/26 Premier League season reached gameweek 30, the table tension showed elsewhere: Tottenham Hotspur finally displayed signs of life in a relegation battle likely to go to the wire, West Ham United continued a resurgent escape attempt, and Nottingham Forest awaited the season’s end. FotMob’s match ratings identify a group of players who made the difference in this round.
Alex Scott (Bournemouth) was one of the highest-rated players in a 0–0 draw at Burnley. Scott completed 18 defensive contributions, including 12 ground duels won and eight recoveries, leading the game in those categories and frustrating Burnley’s attempts to get round him.
Yankuba Minteh (Brighton & Hove Albion) earned an 8.3 rating for his role in Brighton’s 1–0 win over Sunderland that moved his side above the Black Cats. The winger worked hard defensively and scored with a sliced cross that inexplicably found the net.
William Saliba (Arsenal) produced a commanding display in a 2–0 win over Everton. Saliba finished with 127 touches, at least 34 more than any other player, created two chances, and played 13 passes into the final third, one of which was a long ball, underpinning a performance that combined defensive dominance with purposeful distribution.
Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United) provided a simple but decisive contribution in a 1–0 win over Chelsea. A single pass released him into space in front of Robert Sánchez and he held his composure to slot home what proved to be the winning goal.
Konstantinos Mavropanos (West Ham United) produced late heroics against Manchester City, scoring in the 91st minute to earn a point. The centre back also attracted a viral image after taking an Erling Haaland shot to the face and received a standing ovation from a Hammers fanbase rediscovering its affection for the team.
Dango Ouattara (Brentford) rated 8.3 after an excellent creative showing against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Ouattara controlled Caoimhín Kelleher’s long ball and set up Igor Thiago, a move that briefly looked like it would secure a big victory before Wolves mounted a comeback to draw 2–2.
Analytics & Stats
Szoboszlai’s Conference League Comment Underlines Liverpool’s Finishing and Late-Goal Problems
Szoboszlai warned Liverpool must wake up; finishing inefficiency and late concessions persist. Today
Dominik Szoboszlai opened the scoring with his fourth Premier League free kick of the season, the most any Liverpool player has ever amassed in the competition’s history, but the lead did not hold. Richarlison salvaged a 90th-minute equaliser as Liverpool again dropped points late.
“I feel flat,” Szoboszlai told Sky Sports, barely raising his voice above a whisper. “We have to wake up because if we carry on like this, we should be happy with the Conference League.” Asked for an explanation behind this painfully familiar collapse — it was the eighth goal Liverpool have conceded in the 90th minute or later this season — Szoboszlai delivered a concerning response: “I don’t know why this is happening, I honestly don’t know.
“I think in the first half we played very well, we controlled the whole game and they hardly created chances apart from one or two headers. Second half we just didn’t so the same things.”
There was a clear sense of complacency after the opener: between that free kick and Richarlison’s equaliser, Tottenham registered twice as many shots on target as their hosts (six to three). Manager Arne Slot was less focused on attitude and more on finishing. “I think we are completely underperforming in terms of the chances we create and the amount of goals we score,” he said. “That’s quite a surprise if you look at how much attacking quality we have.”
Slot added: “If you’re not able to score enough, then you have to be able to keep a clean sheet, and that’s something we find really hard this season.”
The numbers underline the problem. “Liverpool have racked up 49 Premier League goals this season from an expected goals (xG) of 50.0, per FotMob.” That one-goal difference which Slot has bemoaned is almost exactly the Premier League average. Ten teams have a larger negative differential between their xG and actual goals scored, while nine different sides have been more efficient than Liverpool this season. Liverpool scored 86 goals from an xG of 83.5 last term, and nine clubs out-performed their predicted goal tally by a larger margin than the Reds.
Opta define a “big chance” as “a situation where a player is reasonably expected to score” and it is these opportunities Liverpool have frequently squandered. The side have converted 32% of their “big chances” this season—only three clubs have a lower rate. Big chances created fell from 150 (1st) in 2024–25 to 81 (6th) this season, while big chances missed moved from 92 (1st) to 55 (4th).
Analytics & Stats
Opta Supercomputer Lays Out 2025–26 Premier League Forecast as Arsenal Lead the Way
Opta’s supercomputer predicts Arsenal favourites and projects points, qualification and relegations.
Opta’s supercomputer has produced a clear statistical view of the 2025–26 Premier League table, heavily favouring Arsenal while mapping out qualification and relegation probabilities. The model gives Arsenal 84.61 predicted points and a 97.46% chance of the title from their current 70 points. Manchester City sit on 61 points with a prediction of 74.70 and a 2.54% title chance.
The weekend’s results felt significant. Arsenal pulled further clear of Manchester City after a dramatic 2–0 victory over Everton inspired by the record-breaking feats of Max Dowman. City were held to a 1–1 draw against West Ham after Pep Guardiola warned that a slip up would be catastrophic. “Now it’s West Ham that defines the Premier League,” he declared. “Now we go there knowing that if we drop points, it will be over.” After the draw Guardiola insisted: “It’s not over.” The supercomputer remains unconvinced that City can close the gap.
Manchester United have opened up breathing room in the race for Champions League qualification. United sit on 54 points with a predicted 66.03 and a 78.07% chance of qualifying after a convincing 3–1 win over Aston Villa. “We are in a good position at the moment,” Michael Carrick admitted, “but still a lot to play for.”
The model projects Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea to contest the remaining top-six positions, with Liverpool on 49 points and a predicted 61.80 (34.09% chance), and Chelsea on 48 points and a predicted 60.52 (23.21% chance). Dominik Szoboszlai captured the mood after Liverpool’s 1–1 draw with Tottenham: “We have to wake up because if we carry on like this, we should be happy with the Conference League.”
At the bottom, the supercomputer gives Burnley and Wolves near-certain relegation, while Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham occupy the zone of greatest uncertainty. Tottenham headed into the weekend one point above the relegation zone and ended it level with Leeds, Forest and West Ham; the mood in north London has lifted after they ended their losing run.
The Opta projection frames the current landscape: Arsenal clear favourites, City still dangerous, United pushing for the top three, and a congested battle for European places and survival.
