A weekend of shocks and dropped points has shifted the Opta supercomputer\u2019s view of the 2025\/26 Premier League season. With the top two away for the Carabao Cup final, teams below have been jockeying for position in the race for Champions League places.<\/p>\n
Manchester United were held to a 2\u20132 draw with Bournemouth in controversial circumstances. Liverpool fell 2\u20131 to Brighton & Hove Albion. Chelsea suffered a 3\u20130 defeat to Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s projection still favours Arsenal for the title. The model lists Arsenal on 70 current points with an expected points total of 84.80 and a title chance of 97.77%. Manchester City sit on 61 points with an expected 74.47 and a 2.23% title chance. The statisticians are not looking past Arsenal.<\/p>\n
On Champions League qualification the supercomputer gives Manchester United (55 current points, expected 66.09) an 86.25% chance, while Aston Villa (51, expected 64.13) has a 66.68% chance. Liverpool are projected on 49 current points with an expected 60.53 and a 27.33% chance. Chelsea stand on 48 current points, expected 58.63, with a 13.39% chance. Brentford (45, expected 56.09) are at 3.64%; Everton (46, expected 54.96) 1.37%; Newcastle (42, expected 54.12) 0.73%; Brighton (43, expected 53.48) 0.53%.<\/p>\n
Michael Carrick\u2019s side are still in an imposing position with seven games left to play despite the Bournemouth draw. Unai Emery\u2019s side remain heavy favourites for the final top-four spot, having done most of the early campaign work.<\/p>\n
Arne Slot\u2019s side retain a route back into the Champions League thanks in part to England\u2019s strong coefficient. Liam Rosenior\u2019s side face a difficult run and are projected for the Europa League.<\/p>\n
At the bottom, Opta\u2019s relegation table places Tottenham on 30 points with a 12.67% relegation chance (expected 40.63). Nottingham Forest are on 29 with a 32.11% chance (expected 38.58). West Ham are on 29 with a 48.44% chance (expected 37.73). Burnley (20, expected 26.34) have a 99.90% chance and Wolves (17, expected 24.94) a 99.94% chance. Sunday\u2019s Tottenham v Nottingham Forest meeting is highlighted as pivotal for both clubs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta projections show Arsenal 97.77% to win; Man City 2.23%. Key European and relegation odds. 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9287,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[192,190,175,1056,1083,172],"tags":[1162,1066,1047],"class_list":["post-9288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arsenal","category-chelsea","category-liverpool","category-man-city","category-man-utd","category-epl","tag-analytics","tag-carabao-cup","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9288\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}