The relegation battle in the 2025\/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur\u2019s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.<\/p>\n
Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke\u2019s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:<\/p>\n
– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
\n– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
\n– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
\n– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
\n– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
\n– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%<\/p>\n
Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta\u2019s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.<\/p>\n
The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor\u2019s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday\u2019s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta\u2019s model predicts a close relegation battle: Leeds, Tottenham, Forest and West Ham all involved<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7674,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,795,702,298,172,187,438,783],"tags":[1162,1458],"class_list":["post-7675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-burnley","category-leeds-united","category-nottingham-forest","category-epl","category-tottenham-hotspur","category-west-ham-united","category-wolverhampton-wanderers","tag-analytics","tag-championship"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}