Opta\u2019s simulation has moved the title race decisively in Arsenal\u2019s favour after their derby win over Tottenham. Mikel Arteta had braced his squad after a midweek slip against Wolverhampton Wanderers, welcoming the criticism and telling players: \u201cWe need to go through the pain.\u201d He added: \u201cWe need to keep all that in our tummies to show it on Sunday.\u201d<\/p>\n
Arsenal were pegged back to 1\u20131 at half time against Spurs but did enough to restore their lead at the top to five points. Opta\u2019s projection places Arsenal first with 61 current points, an expected points total of 81.50 and an 82.33% chance of winning the title. Manchester City sit second on 56 points, expected 75.82 points and a 16.92% title probability.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis chapter we wanted to write it,\u201d Arteta said afterwards. \u201cWe have managed today.\u201d Pep Guardiola\u2019s City, who scraped a 2\u20131 win over Newcastle United despite being under pressure in the second half, were given three days off by their manager. \u201cEnjoy life,\u201d he said, later adding: \u201cI am on holiday so don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s model also ranks the sides fighting for Champions League places and midtable security. Aston Villa are currently projected most likely to qualify among the chasing group with a 88.68% chance. Liverpool sit sixth on 45 points but are modelled with the strongest probability of joining Villa and the leading sides in the top six at 51.63%. Alexis Mac Allister, Liverpool\u2019s match-winner, admitted: \u201cThe first half wasn\u2019t good at all. The second half, I wouldn\u2019t say it was good but it was better.\u201d<\/p>\n
Chelsea\u2019s draw after Wesley Fofana\u2019s red card led to a stoppage-time equaliser from Zian Flemming and has dented their chances. At the lower end, Opta projects Leeds United safely above Tottenham, with Spurs expected to finish 16th and given a 4.58% relegation chance in the model. Nottingham Forest sit two points above West Ham but carry a notably lower projected relegation probability than the east London club. Burnley and Wolves face the highest projected risks, with Wolves shown at 100.00% relegation chance and Burnley at 97.76%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta gives Arsenal an 82.33% chance of the title after beating Tottenham, Man City 16.92% 2025-26 PL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[192,969,1464],"tags":[1023,1162,1047],"class_list":["post-7038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arsenal","category-premier-league","category-tottenham","tag-alexis-mac-allister","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7038\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}