Gameweek 26 has produced another turn in the title race but the Opta supercomputer remains convinced Arsenal will finish 2025\u201326 at the summit. The model reduces the Gunners\u2019 margin slightly following the draw at Brentford, but still projects Arsenal to finish on 81.93 expected points and assigns them an 85.81% chance of lifting the title.<\/p>\n
Manchester City sit four points behind in the table and the simulation gives them 74.56 expected points with a 12.07% title probability. The projection suggests City are less likely to close out the title than to be drawn into a fight for second. Aston Villa are described as the leading outside hope, but their title probability is only 2.06% with an expected 71.40 points.<\/p>\n
The model also factors European places. England\u2019s strong European showing is likely to grant an extra Champions League berth, meaning fifth place is almost certain to be sufficient. Liverpool (42) are forecast to climb to fourth with 62.76 expected points and a 33.34% qualification chance. Chelsea (44) are expected to finish on 62.75 points, just 0.01 behind Liverpool, and have a 36.17% chance of Champions League qualification. Manchester United are projected on 62.39 expected points and a 29.72% qualification chance. The simulation places Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United within 0.37 points of one another in the final predictions.<\/p>\n
Brentford\u2019s point at Arsenal boosted their European hopes: the Bees have 58.22 expected points and a 6.92% chance of qualifying. Bournemouth (37) are forecast at 54.13 expected points and a 0.89% chance, while Newcastle (36) and Everton (37) are on 53.21 and 51.73 expected points with marginal qualification odds.<\/p>\n
At the bottom, Nottingham Forest face the tightest survival squeeze with an expected 40.41 points and a 21.00% relegation chance. West Ham sit three points off safety and carry a 70.54% chance of relegation in the model. Burnley are projected with a 98.31% chance of relegation. Wolves\u2019 odds have eased from 100% to 99.99% after their 0\u20130 with Forest, a result the simulation calls the smallest of escapes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta supercomputer: Arsenal still favoured for 2025\u201326 title after Brentford slip; City close again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6845,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,969],"tags":[1162,1047,1087],"class_list":["post-6846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-premier-league","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league","tag-coaching-change"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6846\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}