Matchday 21 failed to produce the decisive shift some supporters expected. Manchester City, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur all dropped points, yet Arsenal could not capitalise fully, settling for a goalless draw with Liverpool.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s supercomputer updated its post-Matchday 21 forecast and still places Arsenal top of its projections. The model gives Arsenal 49 current points, an expected total of 84.67 points by May and a 86.98% chance of winning the title. The prediction notes that the projected points total would not have been enough to lift the Premier League trophy in eight of the last nine seasons.<\/p>\n
Manchester City and Aston Villa remain the next most likely challengers. Opta lists Man City on 43 points with an expected 74.50 and an 8.62% title probability after three consecutive draws to start the new year. Aston Villa are also on 43 points with an expected 73.30 and a 4.21% chance; Unai Emery\u2019s side shared points with Crystal Palace on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The supercomputer\u2019s continental-place projections keep Liverpool in the Champions League positions on current form. Liverpool have 35 points and are projected to reach 64.40 with a 56.97% Champions League probability, the model noting the club\u2019s 10-game unbeaten run following the draw with Arsenal.<\/p>\n
Chelsea are in difficulty on results and discipline. The Blues have 31 points, are on a five-game winless run and fell 2-1 to Fulham after Marc Cucurella saw red in the 22nd minute. Opta still projects Chelsea to finish with 57.85 points and a 13.97% Champions League chance, but the club must arrest its slide.<\/p>\n
Manchester United have dropped points in their last three matches. Opta gives them a 4.50% chance of reaching the Champions League and projects 54.61 expected points, which would place them just above Brighton in the predicted table. Fulham\u2019s victory over Chelsea moves them into the projected top 10, while Tottenham are forecast to finish 12th.<\/p>\n
At the bottom, Opta hands realistic relegation probabilities to five clubs. Leeds (22 points) and Nottingham Forest (21) are projected to survive on about 41 and 40.58 points respectively. West Ham (14), Burnley (13) and Wolves (7) carry much higher risks, with Wolves at a 99.31% chance of relegation in the model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta’s supercomputer keeps Arsenal clear favourites after Matchday 21 despite a 0-0 draw. Opta model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5871,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,969],"tags":[1162,1047],"class_list":["post-5872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-premier-league","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5871"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}