Opta\u2019s supercomputer still rates Arsenal as the most likely Premier League winner after a weekend that left the title race intact.<\/p>\n
Arsenal shared the points in the London derby, a result that followed Mois\u00e9s Caicedo\u2019s red card and left Chelsea with a draw as the best possible outcome in the circumstances. Arsenal sit on 30 points after Gameweek 13, but Opta projects them to finish on 81.39 expected points and assigns a 79.14% chance of lifting the trophy.<\/p>\n
Manchester City moved back into contention with a 3-2 victory over Leeds United secured by a last-gasp winner from Phil Foden. City currently have 25 points and, on Opta\u2019s model, are expected to finish on 70.27 points with an 11.30% probability of winning the title. Chelsea remain third in the projection with 24 current points, an expected 65.94 points and a 4.08% title chance.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s forecast suggests Arsenal would complete the season 11 points clear of Manchester City, and that claiming the league with 81 points would match Leicester City\u2019s 2015\u201316 total, described in the projection as the fifth fewest points collected by a Premier League winner of all time. For Arsenal, the unwanted statistical footnote is secondary to ending a 21-year Premier League title drought.<\/p>\n
Beyond the title race, Opta predicts the battle for Champions League qualification to be tight. Liverpool are projected to finish fourth after their 1-0 win over West Ham United, with an expected 63.35 points. Aston Villa are close behind on an expected 63.14 points, followed by Brighton and Crystal Palace in the congested pack.<\/p>\n
Newcastle United are forecast to climb back into the top half and finish around eighth on 58.03 expected points. Manchester United\u2019s 2-1 comeback over Crystal Palace nudged them up in the projection, with Brentford rounding out the top 10. According to the model, the top five clubs are most likely to secure Champions League places, while Arsenal remain the clear favourites to take the title.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta still favours Arsenal after the London derby draw; Man City revived by Phil Foden’s late winner<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4798,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[192,190,1281,1056,172],"tags":[1162,1047],"class_list":["post-4799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arsenal","category-chelsea","category-gameweek-13","category-man-city","category-epl","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4798"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}